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329for export as shippers are now experiencing dificulties inobtaining +Bahia superior+ certificates.In view of the lower quality over recent weeks farmers havesold a good part of their cocoa held on consignment.Comissaria Smith said spot bean prices rose to 340 to 350cruzados per arroba of 15 kilos.Bean shippers were reluctant to offer nearby shipment andonly limited sales were booked for March shipment at 1,750 to1,780 dlrs per tonne to ports to be named.New crop sales were also light and all to open ports withJune/July going at 1,850 and 1,880 dlrs and at 35 and 45 dlrsunder New York july, Aug/Sept at 1,870, 1,875 and 1,880 dlrsper tonne FOB.Routine sales of butter were made. March/April sold at4,340, 4,345 and 4,350 dlrs.April/May butter went at 2.27 times New York May, June/Julyat 4,400 and 4,415 dlrs, Aug/Sept at 4,351 to 4,450 dlrs and at2.27 and 2.28 times New York Sept and Oct/Dec at 4,480 dlrs and2.27 times New York Dec, Comissaria Smith said.Destinations were the U.S., Covertible currency areas,Uruguay and open ports.Cake sales were registered at 785 to 995 dlrs forMarch/April, 785 dlrs for May, 753 dlrs for Aug and 0.39 timesNew York Dec for Oct/Dec.Buyers were the U.S., Argentina, Uruguay and convertiblecurrency areas.Liquor sales were limited with March/April selling at 2,325and 2,380 dlrs, June/July at 2,375 dlrs and at 1.25 times NewYork July, Aug/Sept at 2,400 dlrs and at 1.25 times New YorkSept and Oct/Dec at 1.25 times New York Dec, Comissaria Smithsaid.Total Bahia sales are currently estimated at 6.13 mln bagsagainst the 1986/87 crop and 1.06 mln bags against the 1987/88crop.Final figures for the period to February 28 are expected tobe published by the Brazilian Cocoa Trade Commission aftercarnival which ends midday on February 27.Reuter</BODY></TEXT></REUTERS>....It may seem somewhat laborious to parse data in this manner especially when comparedto the actual mechanics of the machine learning. However I can assure you that a large part
330of a quant researchers day is spent "wrangling" the data into a format usable by the analysissoftware! Hence it is worth getting some practice at it.If we take a look at the topics file, all-topics-strings.lc.txt by typingless all-topics-strings.lc.txwe can see the following (I’ve removed most of it for brevity):acqalumaustdlraustralbarleybfrbopcancarcasscastor-mealcastor-oilcastorseedcitruspulpcocoacoconutcoconut-oilcoffeecoppercopra-cakecorn......silversingdlrskrsorghumsoy-mealsoy-oilsoybeanstgstrategic-metalsugarsun-mealsun-oilsunseedtapiocateatintrade
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ContentsI Introduction 11 Introduct
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38.2 Correlation . . . . . . . . .
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513.2 The Kalman Filter . . . . . .
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719 Support Vector Machines . . . .
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928 Kalman Filter-Based Pairs Tradi
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Limit of Liability/Disclaimer ofWar
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Part IIntroduction1
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4The aim of this book is to provide
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61.3 How Is The Book Laid Out?The b
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81.5 How Does This Book Differ From
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101.7.1 AlternativesThere are many
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Chapter 2Introduction to Bayesian S
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15Table 2.1: Comparison of Frequent
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172.2 Applying Bayes’ Rule for Ba
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19the next chapter. At this stage,
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21# Create and plot a Beta distribu
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Chapter 3Bayesian Inference of a Bi
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25• The fairness of the coin does
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273.4.3 Multiple Flips of the CoinN
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29x = np.linspace(0, 1, 100)params
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31Hence, all we need to do is re-ar
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33Figure 3.3: The prior and posteri
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Chapter 4Markov Chain Monte CarloIn
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374.2.1 Markov Chain Monte Carlo Al
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39We discussed the fact that we cou
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41Finally we specify the Metropolis
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43we do not need to compute 100,000
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45x, stats.beta.pdf(x, alpha, beta)
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Chapter 5Bayesian Linear Regression
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49non-informative priors.• Poster
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51# Use a linear model (y ~ beta_0
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53# Use the No-U-Turn Samplerstep =
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55plt.show()We can see the sampled
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57"""Calculates the Markov Chain Mo
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Chapter 6Bayesian Stochastic Volati
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61plt.show()Figure 6.1: Different r
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63( )yilog ∼ t(ν, 0, exp(−2s i
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656.3.2 Model Specification in PyMC
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67Figure 6.5: Overlay of samples fr
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69plt.xlabel(’Time’)plt.ylabel(
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Part IIITime Series Analysishttps:/
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74• Seasonal Variation - Many tim
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767.5 How Does This Relate to Other
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78Definition 8.1.1. Expectation. Th
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808.2 CorrelationCorrelation is a d
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82Definition 8.3.4. Stationary in t
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84Figure 8.2: Correlogram plotted i
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868.6 Next StepsNow that we’ve di
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88• Use our knowledge of time ser
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909.3.2 CorrelogramWe can also plot
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929.4.2 CorrelogramThe autocorrelat
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94created the difference series, we
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96there are a few that are marginal
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9810.1 How Will We Proceed?In this
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10010.4.1 RationaleIn the previous
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10210.4.4 Simulations and Correlogr
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104Figure 10.2: Realisation of AR(1
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10610.4.5 Financial DataAmazon Inc.
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108Figure 10.6: Correlogram of Firs
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110> plot(gspcrt)Figure 10.8: First
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112model, as well as the conditiona
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114Figure 10.10: Realisation of MA(
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116Coefficients:ma1 intercept-0.729
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118> require(quantmod)> getSymbols(
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120> amznrt.maCall:arima(x = amznrt
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122Figure 10.16: Residuals of MA(1)
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124Figure 10.18: Residuals of MA(3)
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12610.6.3 RationaleTo date we have
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128Figure 10.20: Correlogram of an
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130Figure 10.22: Correlogram of an
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132Figure 10.23: Correlogram of the
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134Notice that there are some signi
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136I would like to thank you for be
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138Figure 11.1: Plot of simulated A
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140> amzn = diff(log(Cl(AMZN)))As i
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142We fit an ARIMA model by looping
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144being able to create strategy in
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14611.5.2 Why Does This Model Volat
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148ɛ t = σ t w t (11.17)σ 2 t =
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1502.5 % 97.5 %a0 0.1786255 0.21726
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152Figure 11.10: Residuals of an AR
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Figure 11.13: Squared residuals of
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156mean, but due to its stationarit
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158x t = pz t + w x,t (12.1)y t = q
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160Figure 12.3: Plot of x t and y t
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162> layout(1:2)> plot(badcomb, typ
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164We then created two subsequent s
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166Figure 12.6: Backward-adjusted c
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168Coefficients:(Intercept) ewaAdj3
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170> plot(rdsaAdj, rdsbAdj,xlab="RD
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172set.seed(123)## SIMULATED DATA##
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174plot(comb1$residuals, type="l",x
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176> q <- 0.6*z + rnorm(10000)> r <
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178Figure 12.12: Plot of s t , the
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180EWA.Adjusted.l2 EWC.Adjusted.l2
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182library("quantmod")library("tser
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184
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186• Smoothing - Estimating the p
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18813.2.1 A Bayesian ApproachRecall
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190E[y t+1 |D t ] = E[Ft+1θ T t +
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192of our linear regression. The ne
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194Figure 13.1: Scatterplot of the
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196Figure 13.2: Time-varying slope
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198delta = 1e-5trans_cov = delta /
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200
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202"risk manager". They will be use
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204Figure 14.1: Two-state Markov Ch
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206Figure 14.2: Hidden Markov Model
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208> bull_var <- 0.1> bear_mean <-
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210historical financial data.14.3.3
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212The same process will now be car
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214install.packages(’quantmod’)
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216
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Chapter 15Introduction to Machine L
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22115.3.1 Linear RegressionAn eleme
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223While seemingly not a traditiona
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Chapter 16Supervised LearningSuperv
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227ŷ = ˆf(x) = argmax z∈R p(y =
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Chapter 17Linear RegressionIn this
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231if __name__ == "__main__":# Set
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23317.3 Maximum Likelihood Estimati
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235To simplify the notation the lat
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237Once the full dataset is created
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239if __name__ == "__main__":# Set
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241))lr_model.coef_[0]# Create a sc
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Chapter 18Tree-Based MethodsIn this
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245Figure 18.2: The resulting parti
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24718.3 Decision Trees for Classifi
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249In quantitative finance applicat
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251(a) Grow a tree ˆf b with k spl
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253tslag["Lag%s" % str(i+1)] = ts["
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255The same approach is carried out
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257seen whether it is feasible to p
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259amzn = create_lagged_series("AMZ
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Chapter 19Support Vector MachinesIn
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263• Non-Probabilistic - Since th
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265The key point here is that it is
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267classification. Overfitting mean
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269Figure 19.6: Addition of a singl
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27119.8 Support Vector MachinesThe
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273p∑K(x i , x k ) = (1 + x ij x
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Chapter 20Model Selection andCross-
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277This motivates the concept of a
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Page 294 and 295: 281error for a particular model est
Page 296 and 297: 283Figure 20.3: Amazon, Inc. - Pric
Page 298 and 299: 28520.2.5 Python ImplementationWe a
Page 300 and 301: 287At this stage we have the necess
Page 302 and 303: 289..import pylab as plt....def plo
Page 304 and 305: 291fold = 0# Loop over the k-foldsf
Page 306 and 307: 293Figure 20.5: Test MSE curves for
Page 308 and 309: 295return tsretdef validation_set_p
Page 310 and 311: 297model = Pipeline([("polynomial_f
Page 312 and 313: 299X = lags[["Lag1", "Lag2", "Lag3"
Page 314 and 315: Chapter 21Unsupervised LearningThe
Page 316 and 317: 303parameters of the model, θ.Conv
Page 318 and 319: Chapter 22Clustering MethodsIn this
Page 320 and 321: 3072. Iterate the following until c
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Page 324 and 325: 311clustered using K-Means and then
Page 326 and 327: 313ax.set_axis_bgcolor((1,1,0.9))ax
Page 328 and 329: 315ClusterTomorrow to contain tomor
Page 330 and 331: 317Figure 22.4: 3D scatterplot of n
Page 332 and 333: 319# Apply the K-Means Algorithm fo
Page 334 and 335: 321# up days and red for down daysc
Page 336 and 337: 323sp500["ClusterMatrix"] = list(zi
Page 338 and 339: Chapter 23Natural Language Processi
Page 340 and 341: 327The Reuters 21578 dataset can be
Page 344 and 345: 331tungtung-oilveg-oilwheatwoolwpiy
Page 346 and 347: 333in order to minimise memory usag
Page 348 and 349: 335’The Tokyo Grain Exchange said
Page 350 and 351: 337for t in d[0]:if t in topics:d_t
Page 352 and 353: 339This would mean that we are givi
Page 354 and 355: 341partitions into the training and
Page 356 and 357: 3430.660194174757[[21 0 0 0 2 3 0 0
Page 358 and 359: 345self.encoding = encodingdef _res
Page 360 and 361: 347"""topics = open("data/all-topic
Page 362: Part VQuantitative Trading Techniqu
Page 365 and 366: 352While vectorised backtests are s
Page 367 and 368: 354• Backtest - Encapsulates the
Page 369 and 370: 356The second strategy provides a 3
Page 371 and 372: 35825.4.1 MonthlyLiquidateRebalance
Page 373 and 374: 360"""Size the order to reflect the
Page 375 and 376: 362Figure 25.1: US Equities/Bonds 6
Page 377 and 378: 364five years relative to US equiti
Page 379 and 380: 366# Use the monthly liquidate and
Page 381 and 382: 368import datetimefrom qstrader imp
Page 383 and 384: 37026.2 Strategy ImplementationTo i
Page 385 and 386: 372final.order[1],final.order[3]),
Page 387 and 388: 374> spIntersect = merge( spArimaGa
Page 389 and 390: 376enters what looks to be more a s
Page 391 and 392: 378# Output the CSV file to "foreca
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380
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382natural gas.The hypothesis prese
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384## Carry out linear regression o
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38627.5 Python QSTrader Implementat
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388that arrive out of order in the
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390if self.invested is not None:if
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392take into account commission dif
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394adf.test(comb$residuals, k=1)# c
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396def go_short_units(self):"""Go s
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398from qstrader.trading_session.ba
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400default=’’,help=’Pickle (.
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402Hence we can "long the spread" i
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404class KalmanPairsTradingStrategy
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406if all(self.latest_prices > -1.0
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408It also changes the FixedPositio
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410’--testing/--no-testing’, de
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412• Asset Selection - Choosing a
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414if self.R is not None:self.R = s
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416)self.events_queue.put(SignalEve
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418@click.option(’--testing/--no-
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420• Short-Term Trend - Predict m
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422It takes the CSV file path as an
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424produce a final truth column whe
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426bias-variance trade-off of the m
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428used by the machine learning mod
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430IQFeedIntradayCsvBarPriceHandler
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432’--filename’,default=’’,
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Figure 29.2: Tearsheet for Random F
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436):lookforward_minutes=5,up_down_
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438#ts["UpDown"] = down_tot & up_to
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440events_queue - A handle to the s
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442from intraday_ml_strategy import
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444if __name__ == "__main__":main()
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446sentiment.In recent years there
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448Ticker Name Period LinkMSFT Micr
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450self.statistics.update(event.tim
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452if self.end_date is not None:sen
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454a sent_sell corresponding exit t
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456sentiment_handler = SentdexSenti
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458Figure 30.2:volatile, posting mo
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460fication by adding many more sto
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462events_queue = queue.Queue()csv_
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464def main(config, testing, ticker
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466In quantitative trading this pro
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468self.tickers[ticker]["timestamp"
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470df["Adj Close"][mask],".", lines
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472from qstrader.event import (Sign
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474class RegimeHMMRiskManager(Abstr
Page 489 and 490:
476# If in the undesirable regime,
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47831.5 Strategy Results31.5.1 Tran
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480Figure 31.3: Trend Following Reg
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482ax.grid(True)plt.show()if __name
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484elif short_sma < long_sma and se
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486elif action == "SLD":if self.inv
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488backtest = Backtest(price_handle
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490holding an instrument representi
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492rolling_sharpe_s = np.sqrt(self.
Page 507 and 508:
494In order to use the annualised r
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496Figure 32.2: Aluminum Smelting S
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498
Page 513 and 514:
500[18] Wikipedia: Viterbi algorith
Page 515 and 516:
502[56] Investor, S. Regime detecti
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504[92] Sinclair, E. Volatility Tra
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