WCN Dec e

Colony Demand
Figure 1 (see page 42) plots the estimated demand for
colonies based on bearing almond acreage each year from
2015 to 2022 as well as the total colony shipments into
California for almond pollination and the total number
of colonies in the U.S. on January 1. Estimated demand
is calculated using two colonies per acre for traditional
varieties and one colony per acre for self-fertile varieties
(Shasta and Independence). A consistent gap between estimated
demand and colony shipments is filled by colonies
that remain in California year-round. For the 2021 almond
bloom, roughly 1.3 million almond acres (3.3% in self-fertile
varieties) required an estimated 2.6 million honey bee
colonies for pollination (Figure 1, see page 42). According
to apiary shipment data provided by CDFA, other states
shipped 2.1 million honey bee colonies into California for
the 2021 bloom, up 16% from 2020.
As seen in Figure 1, the estimated demand for colonies in
2022 is 2.63 million colonies, slightly above that of 2021. It
seems the recent increase in self-fertile variety plantings have
started leveling off the estimated demand for colonies. However,
the required colonies for almond pollination in 2022
still represent 90% of the 2.92 million colonies in the U.S. on
January 1, 2021, so at least in the short run, it’s unlikely this
leveling off of demand will put downward pressure on
pollination fees. Additionally, an article published in Nature
found the Independence variety showed an increase
in yield by 20% from allowing bee visitation (Sáez et al.
2020). The researchers used the standard stocking rate of
two colonies per acre. This study eliminates any claims that
these self-fertile varieties do not require honey bee colonies
for commercial production. Growers of self-fertile varieties
who do not currently place honey bees in their orchards are
likely “borrowing” pollination services from neighboring
orchards. In the future, growers with traditional orchard
varieties surrounded by many self-fertile orchards with few
(or no) colonies per acre may have to compensate by placing
more colonies per acre.
Weather Impacts on Colony Supply
Much of the western U.S. and major honey producing
states in the northern plains have been under severe
drought conditions throughout the summer, which could
have implications for colony strength and numbers for the
upcoming almond pollination season. Figure 2 shows the
U.S. drought monitor for the week of July 27, 2021, a time
when major honey flow should have been taking place in
states where most commercially managed honey bee colonies
are located for honey production in the summer (North
Dakota, South Dakota, Montana). As of the week of October
12, 2021, 35% of the U.S. was still in a severe drought
or worse. Consequently, many commercial beekeepers have
seen decreased honey production, increased costs of feeding
and poor colony nutrition, all likely to negatively impact the
supply and strength of colonies for almond pollination.
To get an idea of potential impacts of this drought, we
looked back to 2012 when a similar drought took place.
Figure 2. U.S. Drought Monitor, July 27, 2021
In October 2012, approximately 40% of the U.S. was in a
severe drought or worse, slightly more area affected than our
current situation. According to national honey yields from
USDA, the 2012 honey crop was the lowest production in
over 30 years. Figure 3 (see page 42) shows winter mortality
rates and colony strength delivered at almond pollination for
Continued on Page 44
ALMOND
POLLINATION
SERVICE
Beekeeper & Pollination Broker since 1996
M & D HONEY, Inc.
Madera, CA
559-974-4042
manddhoney@gmail.com
WWW.MANDDHONEY.COM
December 2021 www.wcngg.com 43