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Almond Pollination 2022: Economic<br />
Outlook and Other Considerations<br />
By BRITTNEY GOODRICH | Assistant Professor of Cooperative Extension, Dept. of Agricultural &<br />
Resource Economics, UC Davis<br />
MARIEKE FENTON | Ph.D. Candidate, Dept. of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Davis<br />
and JERROD PENN | Assistant Professor, Dept. of Agricultural Economics & Agribusiness, Louisiana<br />
State University<br />
In this article, we summarize some considerations<br />
for the 2022 almond pollination season,<br />
including results from a 2021 survey of commercial<br />
beekeepers regarding their almond pollination<br />
agreements. The survey results provide<br />
insights on pollination fees, agreement details<br />
related to advance payment and limiting pesticide<br />
exposure as well as beekeeper preferences for<br />
bee-friendly cover crop mixes.<br />
Almond Industry Update<br />
Almond prices rebounded this summer due<br />
to a lower-than-anticipated almond crop for the<br />
2021-22 marketing year following roughly a year<br />
of low almond prices. Relatively low competition<br />
from other exporting countries, coupled with<br />
steady growth in almond demand have kept almond<br />
prices strong despite monumental growth<br />
in production over the last two decades (Bruno,<br />
Goodrich and Sexton 2021).<br />
The Almond Board of California and Land<br />
IQ estimate the removal of around 48,000 acres<br />
of almonds by September 2021, approximately<br />
3.6% of the 1.3 million bearing acres in 2021.<br />
This is up slightly from 2020, with an estimated<br />
39,000 acres removed. Aging orchards are the<br />
likely candidates for removal, and a few industry<br />
sources speculate the removal of additional orchards<br />
after harvest this year due to water scarcity<br />
concerns from consecutive years of drought<br />
and expected limitations due to the Sustainable<br />
Ground Water Management Act. Land IQ estimates<br />
13% of almond orchards are more than 21<br />
years old, compared to 20% of young orchards<br />
that will begin bearing in one to three years. Between<br />
June 2019 and May 2020, nurseries reported<br />
66,000 acres of sales, with over half being for<br />
new orchards and the remainder replacing aging<br />
orchards. These numbers suggest that almond<br />
acreage is still expanding, though likely at lower<br />
rates than previous years due to the recent low<br />
prices and uncertain water availability.<br />
3,000,000<br />
2,800,000<br />
Table 2,600,000 3<br />
2,400,000<br />
Beekeepers 2,200,000Preferred Cover<br />
Potential Benefits to Almond<br />
Bloom timing<br />
Percentage of Response<br />
Crop Mix<br />
Orchard<br />
2,000,000<br />
Any 1,800,000 of the following<br />
bee-friendly 3,000,000 cover crops are<br />
33%<br />
welcome<br />
1,600,000<br />
1,400,000<br />
2,800,000<br />
Brassica mix (mustards,<br />
Increased soil organic matter,<br />
canola, 1,200,000 etc.) 2,600,00<br />
January-March<br />
37%<br />
water infiltration<br />
1,000,000 2,400,00<br />
Erosion control, nitrogen<br />
Clover mix<br />
March-June<br />
10%<br />
2,200,00 2016 2018 fixation2020 2022<br />
Soil builder mix (Combination<br />
Almond Pollination<br />
Combination<br />
Season<br />
of Brassica and<br />
2,000,00<br />
January-May<br />
brassicas, legumes and grains) Colonies Estimated Demand Total U.S. Colonies<br />
13%<br />
Clover mix benefits<br />
1,800,00<br />
into CA for Almond Pollination on Jan 1<br />
Aesthetically pleasing, not<br />
Wild flowers<br />
1,600,00<br />
(California poppy,<br />
February-June ideal for planting within<br />
3%<br />
Figure black-eyed 1. Total susan, U.S. etc.) colonies on January 1, estimated demand for colonies, and shipments<br />
orchards<br />
of colonies 1,400,00 into California, 2015-22<br />
Sources: I would 2015-20 prefer 1,200,00 my Almond grower Acreage not Reports, USDA NASS and CDFA; Apiary Shipments through California Border 1%<br />
plant a bee-friendly cover crop<br />
Protection Stations, 1,000,00 CDFA Plant Health and Pest Prevention Services; Honey Bee Colonies Reports, USDA NASS<br />
Other 3%<br />
Note: Estimated demand is two colonies 2016 per acre for traditional varieties 2018 and one colony per 2020 acre for self-fertile.<br />
Note: Bloom timing and potential benefits taken from PAm Seeds for Bees site:<br />
202<br />
https://www.projectapism.org/pam-seed-mixes.html and California Native Plant Society California Wildflowers gui<br />
https://www.projectapism.org/pam-seed-mixes.html and<br />
Almond<br />
California<br />
Pollination<br />
Native Plant<br />
Season<br />
Society California Wildflowers guide<br />
https://www.cnps.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/wildflowers-peak-season-guide.pdf Exact bloom timing will<br />
https://www.cnps.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/wildflowers-peak-season-guide.pdf Colonies Estimated Demand Exact bloom Total timing U.S. Colonie will<br />
depend on timeliness of planting and rain or irrigation.<br />
depend on timeliness of planting and rain or irrigation. into CA for Almond Pollination on Jan 1<br />
Colonies<br />
Colonies<br />
Figure 3<br />
Figure Winter Mortality Rate<br />
(Proportion of Colonies Lost)<br />
0.4<br />
0.35<br />
0.3<br />
0.25<br />
0.2<br />
0.15<br />
0.1<br />
0.05<br />
0<br />
2010 2011<br />
0<br />
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021<br />
Figure 3. Almond pollination colony strength and winter mortality rates, 2010-21<br />
Sources: The Pollination Connection, BIP Winter Loss Surveys<br />
20<br />
15<br />
10<br />
5<br />
Colony Strength: Average<br />
Frame Count<br />
42 West Coast Nut <strong>Dec</strong>ember 2021
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