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2021 Q3 In Review - Integrity Wealth Advisors, Ventura | Ojai, California

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<strong>Q3</strong> <strong>2021</strong><br />

IN REVIEW


TOTAL RETURN <strong>2021</strong> <strong>Q3</strong> + NEWSWORTHY EVENTS<br />

July 2 – NonFarm<br />

payrolls increased<br />

850,000 for the month<br />

of June, compared with<br />

the expected 706,000<br />

July 16 – Consumer<br />

Sentiment <strong>In</strong>dex fell to<br />

80.8, the lowest level since<br />

February and much lower<br />

than the expected 86.0<br />

July 19 – Blue Origin<br />

successfully conducts<br />

its first human test<br />

flight with Jeff Bezos on<br />

board<br />

August 2 – A<br />

bipartisan group<br />

of senators<br />

agreed on a $1T<br />

infrastructure bill<br />

over the weekend<br />

August 19 – Stocks tumbled<br />

as the Fed’s July minutes are<br />

released, citing that the central<br />

bank was preparing to taper<br />

later this year<br />

August 24 – The<br />

Pfizer vaccination<br />

receives FDA<br />

approval<br />

August 26 – A<br />

suicide bomb<br />

at Kabul airport<br />

kills 182 people,<br />

including 13 U.S.<br />

service members<br />

August 30 – The US<br />

withdraws its last remaining<br />

troops from Kabul, ending<br />

20 years of operations in<br />

Afghanistan<br />

September 3 – It became<br />

evident that the Delta<br />

variant is taking a toll on job<br />

growth, with just 235,000<br />

jobs gained, compared with<br />

the expected 725,000<br />

September 7 – El Salvador<br />

becomes the first country in the<br />

world to accept Bitcoin as an<br />

official currency<br />

September 20 – The U.S.<br />

stock market sold off, as<br />

investors worried that<br />

the financial distress of a<br />

large real estate company<br />

in China could create<br />

problems elsewhere across<br />

the globe<br />

S&P 500 TOTAL RETURN<br />

MSCI ACWI EX USA TOTAL RETURN<br />

BARCLAYS US AGGREGATE TOTAL RETURN<br />

6%<br />

4%<br />

2%<br />

0%<br />

0.58%<br />

0.05%<br />

-2%<br />

-2.88%<br />

-4%<br />

July<br />

August<br />

September<br />

12%<br />

S&P 500 TOTAL RETURN<br />

MSCI ACWI EX USA TOTAL RETURN<br />

BARCLAYS US AGGREGATE TOTAL RETURN<br />

As of close 9/30/<strong>2021</strong><br />

11%<br />

10.42%


CEO CORNER<br />

<strong>2021</strong><br />

<strong>Q3</strong><br />

IN REVIEW<br />

Hi everyone, and welcome to our thoughts on the quarter just ended. As has been the case throughout <strong>2021</strong>, the market<br />

had many swings during the quarter, the S&P500 finishing almost unchanged with an increase of just about a half a<br />

percent, and the more tech driven NASDAQ up around 1 percent. Bonds finished the quarter flat after a rough month in<br />

September. Speaking of September, it lived up to its reputation as being the worst month of the year, historically speaking,<br />

averaging a 1% loss since 1928. This year was especially brutal as the major stock averages lost about 4.5% while bonds<br />

lost almost 1%.<br />

Why all the fuss? We will address this question a lot in this issue, but suffice it to say China, fear of the Fed reducing open<br />

market bond purchases (or “tapering”, as you’ve heard it referred to in the financial media), and concerns over inflation<br />

have been identified as the main culprits rattling the markets. Add to those concerns the inability of Congress to pass an<br />

infrastructure bill as well as waiting until the last minute to pass emergency funding for the government so America can<br />

pay it’s bills, and we have <strong>Q3</strong>.<br />

We remain optimistic. The Fed is still at zero and will be for some time. Congress will eventually pass an infrastructure<br />

bill in addition to all the money they’ve minted in the last year or so, and consumers are showing they are letting none of<br />

the aforementioned concerns stop them from spending. These are big tailwinds that we feel will deliver solid returns from<br />

stocks.<br />

And a quick note: Our <strong>In</strong>vestment Committee works hard on these reports to deliver unique content to you every quarter.<br />

We feel you deserve our original thoughts, so we do not pay a third-party source to create these reviews. Please, then, join<br />

me in thanking all the advisors contained herein for the time and effort they contribute to make this happen!<br />

So, on behalf of all the professionals here at IWA, we THANK YOU for reading and hope you enjoy <strong>Q3</strong> <strong>2021</strong> <strong>In</strong> <strong>Review</strong>.<br />

Stephen H Wagner, CFP<br />

CEO <strong>In</strong>tegrity <strong>Wealth</strong> <strong>Advisors</strong>


ECONOMIC CHARTS & NOTES<br />

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX Core inflation continued to clock in above 5%<br />

although the increase from July to August was the smallest since February.<br />

Prices for housing, new vehicles, medical care, and recreation edged higher<br />

while airline fares, used vehicles, and auto insurance declined.<br />

Amount in Thousands Y/Y % Chg<br />

6%<br />

5%<br />

4%<br />

3%<br />

2%<br />

1%<br />

0%<br />

Jan ' 18<br />

JOB OPENINGS & HIRES The U.S. retail industry hired 849,000 people in<br />

July following record high hiring in the month prior. Retail job openings also<br />

remained near record high levels as companies struggled to fill job vacancies<br />

despite offers of higher wages, hours, and flexibility.<br />

1200<br />

1000<br />

800<br />

600<br />

400<br />

200<br />

0<br />

Jan '18<br />

Jul '18<br />

CPI Less Food<br />

Jul '18 Jan ' 19<br />

Retail Openings<br />

Jan '19<br />

Jul '19<br />

Jul '19<br />

Jan '20<br />

Jan '20<br />

CPI All<br />

Jul '20<br />

Retail Hires<br />

Jul '20<br />

Jan '21<br />

Jan '21<br />

Jul '21<br />

CONSUMER SPENDING Disposable personal income improved in July<br />

amid higher wages but remained below prior year levels absent the impact of<br />

government stimulus programs. Personal spending also increased month-overmonth<br />

as prices of both durable and nondurable goods rose.<br />

% Chg Year-over-year<br />

GDP After the domestic economy grew at a 6.7% annualized rate in Q2, economists<br />

are anticipating slower growth in the back half of the year. The Fed's forecast for 5.9%<br />

growth in <strong>2021</strong> reflects a strong consumer spending environment offset by the spread of<br />

the delta variant, supply chain disruptions, labor shortages, and a cooler housing market.<br />

% Growth<br />

30<br />

25<br />

20<br />

15<br />

10<br />

5<br />

0<br />

-5<br />

-10<br />

-15<br />

Jan '19<br />

35%<br />

30%<br />

25%<br />

20%<br />

15%<br />

10%<br />

5%<br />

0%<br />

-5%<br />

-10%<br />

-15%<br />

-20%<br />

-25%<br />

-30%<br />

-35%<br />

2017<br />

Jul '19<br />

Consumption<br />

Jan '20<br />

Jul ' 20<br />

GDP<br />

Disposable <strong>In</strong>come<br />

Jan '21<br />

Q1 Q2 <strong>Q3</strong> Q4 Q1 Q2 <strong>Q3</strong> Q4 Q1 Q2 <strong>Q3</strong> Q4 Q1 Q2 <strong>Q3</strong> Q4 Q1 Q2<br />

2018 2019 2020 <strong>2021</strong>


THE CHINA FEAR<br />

People in China are having the same debates about competition, consumer<br />

rights, data protection, and individual privacy, as we are having here in the<br />

U.S. The difference is that China is a one-party regime and has the ability to<br />

make changes more rapidly than we can in the United States. Overall, we do<br />

not believe the Chinese government is deliberately trying to deprivatize the<br />

economy. The Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) main goal is the well being<br />

and equality of its people. There are industries that have stepped in to regulate<br />

"inequality" and access, such as the private education industry. The China<br />

Securities Regulatory Commission met with major U.S. investment banks<br />

<strong>2021</strong><br />

<strong>Q3</strong><br />

IN REVIEW<br />

in July to clarify some miscommunication and stated, specifically about the<br />

DiDi IPO, that they are not attempting to reduce or restrict foreign capital or<br />

decouple their market. Private companies now drive the Chinese economy,<br />

which is a huge change from the not so distant past, and there is no going<br />

backwards. Small companies now create all of the innovation, wealth, and new<br />

jobs in China. Some of the well-known Chinese stocks are at 20% to 30% pricing<br />

discounts on price-to-earnings ratios compared to their global peers. We feel<br />

that the selection of quality names gives you the opportunity to participate in<br />

the growth of a healthy and profitable environment.<br />

30%<br />

25%<br />

20%<br />

15%<br />

10%<br />

5%<br />

0%<br />

-5%<br />

-10%<br />

-15%<br />

Oct 24, 2020 – Jack Ma<br />

attacked China’s banking<br />

system and called for<br />

reforms<br />

Nov 3 , 2020 –<br />

Ant Group's IPO<br />

suspended<br />

Jan 4 , <strong>2021</strong> – BABA<br />

down 2.15% as rumors<br />

spread about Jack Ma's<br />

disappearance<br />

Feb 19 , <strong>2021</strong> – Biden said that<br />

the U.S. and its <strong>In</strong>t'l partners<br />

must hold China to account for<br />

its economic practices<br />

April 12 , <strong>2021</strong><br />

– BABA slapped<br />

with a $2.8B fine<br />

by regulators<br />

July 2 , <strong>2021</strong> – The<br />

Cyberspace Admin of<br />

China announced<br />

it had launched an<br />

investigation into Didi<br />

May 13 , <strong>2021</strong> – China is<br />

said to be preparing rules<br />

for K-12 tutoring<br />

July 23, <strong>2021</strong> –<br />

China bars for-profit<br />

tutoring in core<br />

school subjects<br />

Aug 12, <strong>2021</strong> – China<br />

released a five-year<br />

blueprint calling for<br />

greater regulation of<br />

the economy<br />

Sept 16, <strong>2021</strong> - Chinese<br />

property giant Evergrande<br />

is on the brink of collapse,<br />

and analysts warn the<br />

potential fallout could<br />

have far-reaching<br />

implications that spill<br />

outside China’s borders<br />

-20%<br />

SEPT 2020 MSCI CHINA % CHANGE<br />

FEB <strong>2021</strong><br />

SEPT <strong>2021</strong>


THE EVERGRANDE STORY<br />

During the first weeks of September the market ignored whispers of<br />

a Chinese real estate giant facing debt problems larger than anything<br />

China has ever seen. Evergrande was to pay $83.5 million (USD) in bond<br />

interest on September 23rd. <strong>In</strong> response, many analysts’ thinking was<br />

that Evergrande would not be able to survive without Chinese government<br />

assistance. Those most pessimistic of the market were saying it might<br />

be another Lehman Brothers, so it’s no surprise that this kind of news has<br />

investors panicking. On September 20th the market reacted with the S&P<br />

500 dropping 2% that day, even though Chinese investments only contribute<br />

2% of S&P 500 revenue.<br />

<strong>In</strong> August of last year, China’s authorities implemented a “Three Red Lines”<br />

policy, according to which a property company’s access to financing is<br />

predicated on satisfying three leverage ratios: 1) liability to asset less than<br />

70%, 2) net debt to shareholders’ equity less than 100%, and 3) cash to<br />

short-term debt not less than 100%. Thus, the Evergrande issue didn’t creep<br />

up on investors. On the contrary, this potential Evergrande implosion has<br />

been around for months, if not even longer. So when Evergrande failed to<br />

meet these government ratios it could not borrow new debt to refinance old<br />

debt and continue normal operations. This led to Evergrande failing to both<br />

finish and start many projects to generate the cashflow needed to sustain<br />

its business operations.<br />

This also led to Evergrande missing the $80 million+ interest payment in<br />

September, and Chinese authorities instructed Evergrande to restructure<br />

their debt. These events are in the context that real estate is one of the<br />

largest investments in Chinese households, plus real estate activity<br />

accounts for 29% of China’s GDP. <strong>In</strong> addition, the Chinese Communist<br />

EVERGRANDE CREDIT CASH FLOW PRIME<br />

¥450,000<br />

¥400,000<br />

¥350,000<br />

¥300,000<br />

¥250,000<br />

¥200,000<br />

¥150,000<br />

¥100,000<br />

¥50,000<br />

¥0<br />

IN MILLIONS<br />

MAINTENANCE CAPEX<br />

INTEREST EXPENSE<br />

DEBT MATURITIES<br />

GROSS CASH EARNINGS<br />

CASH & CASH FLOW AVAILABLE<br />

CASH AVAILANLE & UNDRAWN REVOLVER<br />

2020E <strong>2021</strong>E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E<br />

This chart with data from 2020<br />

represents debt that was able<br />

to be rolled into <strong>2021</strong> before the<br />

“Three Red Lines” policy was in<br />

place. What we will likely see<br />

now is pre-default restricting<br />

that will include some forms of<br />

extension, partial payments, or<br />

coupon reduction. To ease these<br />

financing woes in the meantime,<br />

the People’s Bank of China<br />

(PBOC) has repeatedly injected<br />

net new liquidity to the banking<br />

system. Chinese Authorities will<br />

use all means at their disposal to<br />

restructure Evergrande’s debt with<br />

minimal disruption to the financial<br />

system and the economy.<br />

Source: UAFRS, CapitolIQ


<strong>2021</strong><br />

<strong>Q3</strong><br />

IN REVIEW<br />

Party’s agenda is focused on the wellbeing of the<br />

people, and letting the second largest property<br />

developer in China go under would not support that<br />

agenda.<br />

It is important, however, that the Chinese Communist<br />

Party is not using this as an opportunity to nationalize<br />

this company. They are offering them support<br />

through adding liquidity to banks, and having local<br />

governments help big projects continue development.<br />

They are letting the company fail to some extent but<br />

stepping in just enough to prevent the entire system<br />

from failing. This is a pro-capitalistic move on their<br />

part and is therefore a good sign for the rest of the<br />

Chinese markets.<br />

CHINA IS NOT USING THIS AS AN<br />

OPPORTUNITY TO NATIONALIZE THIS<br />

COMPANY... THEY ARE LETTING THE<br />

COMPANY FAIL TO SOME EXTENT BUT<br />

STEPPING IN JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT<br />

THE ENTIRE SYSTEM FROM FAILING.<br />

CHINA<br />

U.S.<br />

MARKET VALUE OF ASSET CLASS (IN TRILLIONS), 2019<br />

$0T $10T $20T $30T $40T $50T $60T<br />

Source: Goldman Sachs<br />

RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY<br />

BONDS<br />

STOCKS<br />

Real estate makes up 70% of the household<br />

wealth in China. Therefore, it is a huge liability<br />

for banks and is tied to around 1/5th of<br />

Chinese economic activity. This is the result<br />

of the Chinese Communist Party limiting<br />

access to the global financial markets for the<br />

Chinese people, leaving real estate as one<br />

of the people's few investment options. This<br />

has caused a booming real estate market<br />

since the early 1990’s. This has also caused<br />

over-building in China, as evidenced by the<br />

Chinese “ghost cities”. Many believe the<br />

real estate bubble has popped, but it seems<br />

obvious that Chinese real estate investment<br />

is not going away any time soon, as we have<br />

new reports of Chinese billionaire investors<br />

opportunistically coming in to take a stake in<br />

Evergrande. Time will tell the outcome for this<br />

company, and the Chinese real estate market.


A DEEP DIVE INTO INFLATION<br />

<strong>In</strong>flation is one of the main topics in many investors' conversations presently. As an investor, why should we be concerned about inflation? Simply, the inflation<br />

rate plays an important role in determining the health of an economy. Even moderate inflation can rapidly erode purchasing power and creates uncertainty as<br />

businesses have more difficulty estimating future costs. Usually high inflation rates also correspond to high interest rates, as lenders need to compensate for<br />

the decline in purchasing power which affects future interest and principal repayments. This results in higher costs of doing business, and places an overall drag<br />

on the economy. The results of this affect corporate performance, and in turn stock price, capacity to take on and pay debt necessary for business operation, and<br />

the dividends that some companies pay.<br />

How does our current inflation rate look in the context of the bull market that has been fostered for investors over the last decade? Consumer prices in recent<br />

months have been posting 12-month gains as high as 5.4%, a rate not seen since 2008. Below is a chart showing the annual inflation rate, along with its<br />

12-month moving average​, from 2010 to the present.<br />

ANNUAL INFLATION RATE 2010 - PRESENT<br />

Source: www.inflationdata.com; updated 9/14/<strong>2021</strong><br />

Obviously, <strong>Q3</strong> brought with it highs in the inflation rate,<br />

caused in general by massive amounts of government<br />

stimulus being pumped into the economy, paired with<br />

supply chain issues. Key contributing components were<br />

the increase in gasoline prices, which increased 42.7%<br />

over the last year and are currently up 2.8% over the<br />

last month. Used cars and trucks were also up 31.9%<br />

over year-ago prices. Food was up 3.7% over year-ago<br />

prices. The following table “A” shows the changes to the<br />

Consumer Price <strong>In</strong>dex (CPI) for key components, on a<br />

monthly basis, since February of this year.<br />

You may notice that the monthly rate of increase has<br />

been slowing lately. The slight increase in August<br />

represents a significant slowdown from what many<br />

were calling "rampant" inflation. <strong>In</strong>flation last month<br />

was lower than July's 0.5% month-over-month increase,<br />

and the August CPI was far lower than what analysts<br />

expected. To consider further, some of these recent<br />

increases have returned to previous levels, reinforcing<br />

the Federal Reserve's (FED) thought of “transitory”, or<br />

temporary, inflation. Take lumber for example, which<br />

inflated by over 300% between November 2020 and May <strong>2021</strong>. While still inflated, lumber has again fallen to a third of it's pandemic high, consistent with levels<br />

commonly seen toward the end of 2020. Referencing the chart above, we can see that we are starting to see some monthly negative inflation numbers coming<br />

in for used cars and trucks, as well as transportation related services. So, like lumber, we are seeing a similar arc with used car prices, which have fallen by<br />

$2,000 over the past two months, demonstrating the “transitory” nature of inflationary pressures.


<strong>2021</strong><br />

<strong>Q3</strong><br />

IN REVIEW<br />

Remember, though, that there are still dozens of supply chain cost components that have not yet rounded the curve. For example, shipping costs remain<br />

high. Once the container shipping business makes a full recovery from the pandemic chaos, those costs will fall, directly impacting the prices of almost<br />

everything sold around the world.<br />

Of notable interest, one other crucial asset class is returning to reasonable levels. That asset class is iron ore. It is the second-most traded commodity<br />

after crude oil and a critical input for the entire global economy. Total steel output has fallen by 8.4% compared with a year ago, and the expectation is<br />

that it will fall further. This has been mainly caused by slowed economic activity in China, lowering steel demand.<br />

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently made the following comments when addressing Congress: "As the economy continues to reopen and<br />

spending rebounds, we are seeing upward pressure on prices, particularly due to supply bottlenecks in some sectors... These effects have been larger<br />

and longer lasting than anticipated, but they will abate,<br />

and as they do, inflation is expected to drop back toward<br />

our longer run 2% goal." You may now be asking<br />

yourself, can the Federal Reserve control inflation?<br />

Powell goes on to say, "If sustained higher inflation<br />

were to become a serious concern, we would certainly<br />

respond and use our tools to ensure that inflation runs<br />

at levels that are consistent with our goals." We can<br />

assume from his comments that yes, Powell certainly<br />

believes the FED has some control over inflation.<br />

TABLE A. PERCENT CHANGES IN CPI FOR ALL URBAN CONSUMERS (CPI-U0: U.S. CITY AVERTAGE<br />

Seasonally adjusted changes from precing month<br />

Unadjusted 12-<br />

mos ended Aug<br />

Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 <strong>2021</strong><br />

All Items 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.3 5.3<br />

Food 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.4 3.7<br />

Food At Home 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.4 3.0<br />

Food away frrom Home 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.4 4.7<br />

Energy 3.9 5.0 -0.1 -0.1 1.5 1.6 2.0 25.0<br />

Energy Commodities 6.6 8.9 -1.4 -1.4 2.6 2.3 2.7 41.9<br />

Gasoline 6.4 9.1 -1.4 -1.4 2.5 2.4 2.7 42.7<br />

Gfuel Oil 9.9 3.2 -3.2 -3.2 2.9 0.6 -2.1 33.2<br />

Energy Services 0.9 0.6 1.5 1.5 0.2 0.8 1.1 8.6<br />

Electricity 0.7 0.0 1.2 1.2 -0.3 0.4 1.0 5.2<br />

Utliuty gas service 1.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 1.7 2.2 1.6 21.1<br />

All items less food and energy 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 4.0<br />

Commodities less food and energy -0.2 0.1 2.0 2.0 2.2 0.5 0.3 7.7<br />

New vehicles 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 2.0 1.7 1.2 7.6<br />

Used Cars and trucks -0.9 0.5 10.0 10.0 10.5 0.2 -1.5 31.9<br />

Apparel -0.7 -0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.0 0.4 4.2<br />

Medical Care Commodities -0.7 0.1 0.6 0.6 -0.4 0.2 -0.2 -2.5<br />

Services less energy services 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 2.7<br />

Shelter 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 2.8<br />

Transportion Services -0.1 1.8 2.9 2.9 1.5 -1.1 -2.3 4.6<br />

Medical Care Services 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 1.0<br />

It is good to keep in mind that there are many<br />

investors on the other side of the debate. These<br />

investors are concerned that the rising prices are<br />

a direct consequence of federal stimulus, and may<br />

be longer lasting. To their credit, the entire business<br />

world has been waiting for months for any sort of<br />

proof that this inflation is temporary in the overall.<br />

After all, the Federal Reserve made a bold decision<br />

to focus on employment and growth, placing less<br />

emphasis on curbing inflation. The recent data,<br />

though, may give the inflation alarmists some food for<br />

thought. It is no coincidence that inflation has begun<br />

to cool just as commodity prices have started to<br />

fall. A fair degree of inflation was driven by the rapid,<br />

unsustainable appreciation of various asset classes<br />

and production inputs. We already see that many of these prices, driven by supply chain disruptions, are beginning to recede. Time will tell what actions<br />

are taken by the Federal Reserve to “control” inflation, but we do have current evidence that prices in many sectors are moderating.


TAX PROPOSALS<br />

To help pay for the recent ambitious infrastructure bills<br />

that have been proposed, a series of tax hikes are on<br />

the table. These include an increase in the top marginal<br />

corporate tax rate, which would go from 21% to as high<br />

as 26.5%, according to a recent proposal in the House of<br />

Representatives.<br />

TOP MARGINAL CORPORATE TAX RATE<br />

60%<br />

Eisenhower Johnson<br />

50<br />

Kennedy<br />

Truman<br />

40<br />

Nixon<br />

Carter<br />

Ford<br />

Reagan<br />

Corporate tax rate<br />

Proposed increase<br />

Clinton<br />

Trump<br />

The proposal includes moving from a flat tax to a<br />

progressive one. The first $400,000 would be taxed<br />

at 18% and any income above that, up to $5 million,<br />

would be taxed at the 21% that we have now. On income<br />

exceeding $5 million, the rate would increase to 26.5%.<br />

30<br />

20<br />

Coolidge<br />

FDR<br />

GHW Bush<br />

GW Bush<br />

Obama<br />

26.5%<br />

Biden<br />

Changes have been proposed for individual tax payers<br />

as well. For individuals, the basic top income-tax rate<br />

would increase from 37% to 39.6%, with that top bracket<br />

starting at $400,000 for individuals and $450,000 for<br />

married couples. <strong>In</strong>dividuals making over $5M in income<br />

also get a 3% bonus tax. The plan would also increase<br />

the long term capital gains and dividends rate to 25%, up<br />

from the current 20%.<br />

10<br />

Wilson<br />

Taft<br />

0<br />

Harding<br />

Hoover<br />

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1090 2000 2010 2020<br />

Source: "Top marginal corp. tax rate" chart; Capitol Group, Strategas. As of 9/23/<strong>2021</strong>. Tables below;<br />

Single filers / Married filers; https://www.atlanticwp.com<br />

Married Filing Jointly<br />

Single Filers<br />

<strong>2021</strong> 2022<br />

<strong>2021</strong> 2022<br />

Tax Rate Taxable <strong>In</strong>come Tax Rate Taxable <strong>In</strong>come Tax Rate Taxable <strong>In</strong>come Tax Rate Taxable <strong>In</strong>come<br />

10% $0-$19,900 10% 10% $0-$9,950 10%<br />

12% $19,901-$81,050 12%<br />

NO CHANGE<br />

12% $9,951-$40,525 12%<br />

NO CHANGE<br />

22% $81,051-$172,750 22% 22% $40,426-$86,375 22%<br />

24% $172,751-$329,850 24% 24% $86,376-$164,925 24%<br />

32% $329,851-$418,850 32% $329,851-$400,000 32% $164,926-$209,425 32% $164,926-$200,000<br />

35% $418,851-$628,300 35% $400,001-$450,000 35% $209,426-$523,600 35% $200,001-$400,000<br />

37% $628,301+ 39.6% $450,001+ 37% $523,601+ 39.6% $400,001+


SOCIAL SECURITY CHALLENGES<br />

<strong>2021</strong><br />

<strong>Q3</strong><br />

IN REVIEW<br />

Every year the trustees of the Social Security<br />

and Medicare trust funds report on the current<br />

and projected financial status of the programs.<br />

This year’s conclusion is clear, Social Security is<br />

in worse shape than we thought. The program’s<br />

Trust Fund for retirement and survivors benefits<br />

is now expected to be insolvent by 2033, a year<br />

earlier than anticipated.<br />

According to the annual report, its finances have<br />

been “significantly affected” by the pandemic<br />

and 2020 recession, in addition to a rapidly aging<br />

population.<br />

The ratio between contributors and beneficiaries<br />

has been shrinking for decades. <strong>In</strong> 1940, shortly<br />

after Social Security was implemented, there<br />

were about 159 workers for every Social Security<br />

recipient. This ratio fell rapidly and was less than<br />

10 workers per beneficiary by 1955. For the last<br />

50 years it has been under 5 and today, there is<br />

just about 2.5 workers per beneficiary.<br />

Source: Social Security Board of Trustees, U.S. Global <strong>In</strong>vestors<br />

<strong>In</strong> the year 2034, a year earlier than previously expected, Americans age 65<br />

and over will outnumber those 18 and under, according to Census Bureau<br />

estimates. The baby boom of the 1950s and 1960s has yet to be repeated<br />

and Americans are having less children in general.<br />

It’s believed that around 40% of older Americans depend on Social Security<br />

as their only source of income in retirement. Next year’s Social Security<br />

cost-of-living adjustment is expected to be above 6%, the largest increase<br />

since the early 1980s.<br />

Unless drastic action is taken, Social Security as we know it has a very<br />

uncertain future.<br />

The importance of contributing to some sort of retirement plan has never<br />

been greater. Even if Social Security is there for you when you retire,<br />

you most likely will not want to live off of it’s benefit alone. We cannot<br />

emphasize enough the importance of starting early and planning ahead.<br />

You can use the chart in the Financial Planning section of this <strong>Review</strong> to<br />

determine if you are saving enough to reach your retirement goals.<br />

THE IMPORTANCE OF<br />

CONTRIBUTING TO SOME<br />

SORT OF RETIREMENT PLAN<br />

HAS NEVER BEEN GREATER.


INVESTMENT<br />

MANAGEMENT<br />

PHILOSOPHY<br />

The complex, ever-changing investment world of today<br />

requires an investment process that is overseen by a team<br />

of experienced investment professionals. Global capital<br />

markets present investors with a host of challenges due to<br />

the combination of an overwhelming amount of information<br />

to analyze and the endless supply of conflicting opinions and<br />

narratives surrounding financial markets. The time and expertise<br />

required to perform in-depth investment research and to make<br />

timely and informed portfolio management decisions requires<br />

both a clear investment process and an experienced investment<br />

team to implement the process.<br />

An old adage states that there is accomplishment through<br />

many advisors. We agree and embrace a variety of investment<br />

perspectives through our investment committee. Our investment<br />

philosophy is well grounded in global macro-economic analysis.<br />

<strong>In</strong>vestment ideas are carefully vetted through a process which<br />

incorporates the diverse range of investment backgrounds<br />

within our firm. This process of multifaceted analysis ensures<br />

that only the strongest investment ideas survive. We are<br />

committed to striking the right balance between risk and<br />

return through managing global, multi-asset class investment<br />

portfolios.<br />

INDEPENDENCE &<br />

CLIENT FOCUS<br />

DIVERSIFICATION<br />

TOP-DOWN, THEMATIC<br />

APPROACH<br />

PERFORMANCE WITH<br />

LIQUIDITY<br />

VARIED INVESTMENT<br />

PERSPECTIVES<br />

OPTIMIZATION OF<br />

EXPENSES AND TAXES<br />

THE INVESTMENT PROCESS<br />

ASSESSMENT OF GLOBAL<br />

ECONOMIC & INVESTMENT<br />

ENVIRONMENT<br />

ASSESS & ANALYZE<br />

THEMES<br />

RESEARCH INVESTMENT<br />

VEHICLES TO FIND<br />

EFFECTIVE IMPLEMENTATION<br />

IDENTIFY<br />

OPPORTUNITIES<br />

STRATEGIC ASSET<br />

ALLOCATION -<br />

Geographies, Sectors,<br />

Capitalizations<br />

INVESTMENT SELECTION -<br />

Open/Closed End Funds, ETFs, Stocks & Bonds


INVESTMENT COMMITTEE<br />

<strong>2021</strong><br />

<strong>Q3</strong><br />

IN REVIEW<br />

The <strong>In</strong>vestment Committee meets formally<br />

each quarter, and more frequently if market<br />

conditions warrant, to discuss the state of<br />

the global economy and capital markets and<br />

to assess the current asset allocation and<br />

positioning of our portfolios. There’s an art<br />

to striking the right balance between risk and<br />

return; pursuing that symmetry is the core of<br />

our investment philosophy. We are fiduciaries<br />

and have our interests aligned with our<br />

clients, as we invest alongside them.​Contact<br />

us at investmentcommittee@iwaplan.com<br />

with any questions or concerns.<br />

STEPHEN WAGNER<br />

CEO, <strong>In</strong>vestment Advisor,<br />

CFP ® , CPFA<br />

35+ Years Experience*<br />

VICTORIA BREEN<br />

<strong>In</strong>vestment Advisor &<br />

Financial Planner<br />

40+ Years Experience*<br />

MARTHA LAFF<br />

<strong>In</strong>vestment Advisor,<br />

ChFC ® , CLU ® , CRPC ®<br />

30+ Years Experience*<br />

ANDREW MURTHA<br />

Financial Analyst,<br />

MBA<br />

20+ Years Experience*<br />

BOB CHEATHAM<br />

Financial Planner,<br />

CRPS®, MA<br />

MARGARET MARAPAO<br />

<strong>In</strong>vestment Advisor &<br />

Financial Planner, CFP ®<br />

CHRISTOPHER WAGNER<br />

<strong>In</strong>vestment Advisor &<br />

Financial Planner, CPFA<br />

LAINE MILLER<br />

<strong>In</strong>vestment Advisor &<br />

Financial Planner<br />

DOUG ECKER<br />

<strong>In</strong>vestment Advisor &<br />

Financial Planner, CRPS®<br />

15+ Years Experience*<br />

* Financial services experience. <strong>In</strong>vestment Advisory Services are offered through investment advisor representatives of <strong>In</strong>tegrity <strong>Wealth</strong> <strong>Advisors</strong>, a Federally Registered <strong>In</strong>vestment Advisor.<br />

THOUGHTFUL<br />

INDEPENDENT<br />

FIDUCIARIES<br />

<strong>In</strong>tegrity <strong>Wealth</strong> <strong>Advisors</strong> has<br />

been committed to helping<br />

individuals, families, and<br />

businesses grow, preserve, and<br />

distribute wealth since 1979


Source: The Importance of Being Earnest, J.P. Morgan Asset Management, 2013.<br />

THE IMPACT OF<br />

SOUND FINANCIAL<br />

PLANNING<br />

Recent Vanguard research 1 shows that an experienced<br />

wealth management team not only adds peace of mind,<br />

but also may add about 3 percentage points of value in<br />

net portfolio returns over time. What does this mean? Your<br />

team has the ability and the time to evaluate your portfolio<br />

investments, meet with you to discuss objectives, and<br />

help get you through tough markets. All of these factored<br />

together potentially add value to your net returns (returns<br />

after taxes and fees) over time. But the most interesting part<br />

of this research is that it shows that financial planning and<br />

financial coaching contributed to the greater majority of the<br />

added net 3% in net portfolio returns.<br />

Retirement landscape<br />

THE INDEPENDENCE PLAN<br />

EQUATION<br />

The retirement equation<br />

A SOUND INDEPENDENCE (RETIREMENT) PLAN<br />

By making the most of the things that you can control, you can be more prepared<br />

for the things that you cannot control. Planning for “what if” situations will improve<br />

your ability to be financially independent and build towards a plan that brings you<br />

comfort and peace of mind.<br />

TOTAL<br />

CONTROL<br />

Asset<br />

allocation<br />

and<br />

location<br />

It’s important to realize how valuable making sound financial<br />

planning decisions is and that value is added by your<br />

financial planning team. As investors, our emotions can be<br />

our worst enemy, especially when the markets are volatile,<br />

and guidance from a “behavioral coach” can save us from<br />

panic-selling and abandoning long-term financial plans.<br />

Numerous studies demonstrate that advisors can have a<br />

huge impact on investor finances, but it’s hard to say if these<br />

findings have been recognized and understood by everyday<br />

investors.<br />

DREAM.<br />

PLAN.<br />

ENJOY. Source:The<br />

Saving vs.<br />

spending<br />

Employment<br />

earnings<br />

and duration<br />

SOME<br />

CONTROL<br />

INDEPENDENCE<br />

Longevity<br />

Importance of Being Earnest, J.P. Morgan Asset Management, 2013.<br />

Market<br />

returns<br />

Policy<br />

regarding<br />

taxation,<br />

savings and<br />

benefits<br />

OUT OF<br />

YOUR<br />

CONTROL


ANNUAL SAVINGS NEEDED IF STARTING TODAY<br />

MODEL ASSUMPTIONS:<br />

Pre-retirement investment return: 5.75%<br />

Post-retirement investment return: 5.0%<br />

<strong>In</strong>flation rate: 2.0%<br />

Retirement age:<br />

• Primary earner: 65<br />

• Spouse: 62<br />

Years in retirement: 30<br />

CURRENT HOUSEHOLD INCOME<br />

$30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 $100,000 125,000 $150,000 $175,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000<br />

Current<br />

age<br />

Checkpoint (x current household income)<br />

25 7% 7% 8% 8% 9% 10% 11% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17%<br />

30 9% 10% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 14% 15% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21%<br />

35 12% 12% 13% 14% 15% 17% 18% 18% 20% 22% 23% 24% 26% 27%<br />

40 16% 17% 17% 18% 21% 22% 24% 25% 26% 29% 31% 32% 35% 37%<br />

45 22% 23% 24% 25% 28% 31% 33% 34% 37% 40% 43% 45% 48% 51%<br />

50 32% 34% 35% 37% 42% 46% 48% 50% 54% 59% 63% 66% 71% 75%<br />

HOW TO USE:<br />

• Go to the intersection of your current age and your closest current household income.<br />

• This is the percentage of your current household incometo contribute annually going forward if you have $0 saved for retirement today.<br />

• Example A: 40-year-old with household income of $50,000 and $0 saved for retirement today may need to save 17% every year until retirement.<br />

• Example B: 40-year-old with household income of $100,000 and $0 saved for retirement today may need to save 25% every year until retirement.<br />

IMPORTANT THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW:<br />

• Values assume you would like to maintain an equivalent lifestyle in retirement.<br />

• Household income is assumed to be gross income (before taxes and savings).<br />

Source: J.P. Morgan. This chart is for illustrative purposes only and must not be relied upon to make investment decisions. J.P. Morgan’s model isbased on a blend of J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s (JPMAM) proprietary Long-<br />

Term Capital Market Assumptions (first 10 years) and equilibrium returns, and an 80% confidence level in retirement. Household income replacement rates are derived from an inflation-adjusted analysis of: Consumer Expenditure<br />

Survey (BLS) data (2013-2016); Social Security benefits using modified scaled earnings in 2019 for a single wage earner at age 65 and a spousal benefit at age 62 reduced by Medicare Part B premiums.<br />

Consult with a financial professional for a more personalized assessment. Allocations, assumptions and expected returns are not meant to represent JPMAM performance. Given the complex risk/reward tradeoffs involved,<br />

we advise clients to rely on judgment as well as quantitative optimization approaches in setting strategic allocations. References to future returns for either asset allocation strategies or asset classes are not promises or even<br />

estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve.


Data / statistics cited are provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.<br />

The S&P 500 <strong>In</strong>dex or the Standard & Poor's 500 <strong>In</strong>dex is a market-capitalization-weighted index of the 500 largest U.S. publicly traded companies. The S&P<br />

500 is a float-weighted index, meaning company market capitalizations are adjusted by the number of shares available for public trading. <strong>In</strong>vestors cannot<br />

invest directly in an index. Note: <strong>In</strong>vestors cannot invest directly in an index. These unmanaged indices do not reflect management fees and transaction<br />

costs that are associated with most investments.<br />

The MSCI World ex USA <strong>In</strong>dex captures large and mid cap representation across 22 of 23 Developed Markets (DM) countries* – excluding the United States.<br />

With 1,012 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.<br />

The Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond <strong>In</strong>dex is the most common index used to track the performance of investment grade bonds in the U.S.<br />

The opinions expressed in this program are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations<br />

for any individual or on any specific security. It is only intended to provide education about the financial industry. To determine which investments may be<br />

appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. Any past performance discussed during this program is no guarantee of future results.<br />

Any indices referenced for comparison are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. <strong>In</strong>vesting involves risk and possible loss of principal capital;<br />

please seek advice from a licensed professional.<br />

<strong>In</strong>tegrity <strong>Wealth</strong> <strong>Advisors</strong> is a registered investment adviser. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where <strong>In</strong>tegrity <strong>Wealth</strong><br />

<strong>Advisors</strong> and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. No advice may be rendered by <strong>In</strong>tegrity <strong>Wealth</strong> <strong>Advisors</strong> unless a client<br />

service agreement is in place.<br />

Vanguard research study; Source: Francis M. Kinniry Jr., Colleen M. Jaconetti, Michael A. DiJoseph, and Yan Zilbering, 2014. Putting<br />

a value on your value: Quantifying Vanguard Advisor’s Alpha. Valley Forge, Pa.: The Vanguard Group.<br />

Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC. A separate entity from <strong>In</strong>tegrity <strong>Wealth</strong> <strong>Advisors</strong>.

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