Undergraduate Research: An Archive - 2021 Program
HEALTH AND DISEASE THESIS TITLE Projecting Measles Susceptibility Build-Up in the Democratic Republic of the Congo Following Vaccination Delays ADVISER C. Jessica Metcalf, Associate Professor of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and Public Affairs Zoe Rennie ’21 ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY Certificate in Environmental Studies The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), has experienced a resurgence of measles as COVID-19 attributed vaccination delays created pockets of susceptible individuals and facilitated an environment for outbreak. My research created an interactive map of the DRC to visualize the build-up of susceptible individuals to measles in its 26 provinces. The simulation implements equations through time steps corresponding to the inputted duration of disruption by taking into account user input for the parameters of birth rate, R0, duration of disruption, start of disruption, reduction in vaccination, and the proportion of the population vaccinated, as well as initial values for population, susceptible and infected individuals. My visualization allowed for pockets of susceptible individuals to be understood under different conditions of vaccination. Visualizing the build-up of susceptible individuals to measles can be helpful to health officials and policymakers, particularly when challenged with distributing limited resources and in unprecedented circumstances such as the COVID-19 pandemic. 33
THESIS TITLE Fight or Flight Response: Using Air-Travel History to Determine COVID-19 Import Risk Across Sub-Saharan Africa ADVISER C. Jessica Metcalf, Associate Professor of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and Public Affairs Yehuda Sinaga ’21 ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY Senior Thesis Research Funding Awardee The potential outbreak of COVID-19 seemed less severe for lower latitude, lower middleincome countries (LMICs) in 2020, but recent data suggest the epidemic will escalate. The eventual spread to these countries could result in even higher cases and mortality because these countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, have limited medical infrastructures and resources. Potential development of healthcare facilities in these countries is hampered by a lack of knowledge about COVID-19s. Collecting data from people arriving in international airports in sub-Saharan Africa would allow for the analysis of risk and the prediction of which countries could experience a high concentration of cases so that resources could be mobilized. My study compiled the number of arrivals and analyzed the level of risk based on current coronavirus case reports in people’s country of origin. To account for the risk determined by the current infrastructure in place, the flight-data model I developed would be compared to the actual infection rate. While this is a necessary and initial step in preventative study, further research is needed to supplement current records and extend intervention plans to outbreak mitigation, especially when considering the intense diversity of factors in sub-Saharan Africa. HEALTH AND DISEASE 34
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THESIS TITLE<br />
Fight or Flight<br />
Response: Using<br />
Air-Travel History to<br />
Determine COVID-19<br />
Import Risk Across<br />
Sub-Saharan Africa<br />
ADVISER<br />
C. Jessica Metcalf,<br />
Associate Professor of<br />
Ecology and<br />
Evolutionary Biology<br />
and Public Affairs<br />
Yehuda Sinaga ’21<br />
ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY<br />
Senior Thesis <strong>Research</strong> Funding Awardee<br />
The potential outbreak of COVID-19 seemed<br />
less severe for lower latitude, lower middleincome<br />
countries (LMICs) in 2020, but recent<br />
data suggest the epidemic will escalate. The<br />
eventual spread to these countries could result<br />
in even higher cases and mortality because<br />
these countries, especially in sub-Saharan<br />
Africa, have limited medical infrastructures and<br />
resources. Potential development of healthcare<br />
facilities in these countries is hampered by a<br />
lack of knowledge about COVID-19s. Collecting<br />
data from people arriving in international<br />
airports in sub-Saharan Africa would allow for<br />
the analysis of risk and the prediction of which<br />
countries could experience a high concentration<br />
of cases so that resources could be mobilized.<br />
My study compiled the number of arrivals and<br />
analyzed the level of risk based on current<br />
coronavirus case reports in people’s country of<br />
origin. To account for the risk determined by the<br />
current infrastructure in place, the flight-data<br />
model I developed would be compared to the<br />
actual infection rate. While this is a necessary<br />
and initial step in preventative study, further<br />
research is needed to supplement current records<br />
and extend intervention plans to outbreak<br />
mitigation, especially when considering the<br />
intense diversity of factors in sub-Saharan<br />
Africa.<br />
HEALTH AND DISEASE<br />
34
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