Ultimate Algorithmic Trading System

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AFL Array Programming 120Syntax 129AFL Wizard 133AmiBroker Loop Programming 139Summary 140CHAPTER 5Using Microsoft Excel to Backtest YourAlgorithm 145VBA Functions and Subroutines 147Data 148Software Structure 149Programming Environment 154Summary 163viCONTENTSCHAPTER 6 Using Python to Backtest Your Algorithm 167Why Python? 167Python Installation 169PSB Installation 169PSB Structure 171Getting Down to Business 193Summary 202CHAPTER 7 An Introduction to EasyLanguage 203TradeStation IDE 204Syntax 209Samples of EasyLanguage 221Summary 224CHAPTER 8Genetic Optimization, Walk Forward, andMonte Carlo Start Trade Analysis 227Utilizing TradeStation and AmiBroker 227Computers, Evolution, and Problem Solving 230Population 231Initial Population Setup Using VBA Excel 232Testing Fitness of Chromosomes Using VBA Excel 232Selection 233www.rasabourse.com
Reproduction 238Mutation 240Using Genetic Algorithms in Trading SystemDevelopment 243Preventing Over-Curve-Fitting 247Walk-Forward Optimizer: Is It Worth the ExtraWork and Time? 249Monte Carlo Analysis 258Start Trade Drawdown 264Summary 269CHAPTER 9An Introduction to Portfolio Maestro,Money Management, and Portfolio Analysis 271Fixed Fractional 272Portfolio Maestro 272Summary 290APPENDIX A AmiBroker 293Keywords 293Flow Control Structures 294Functions 295Utilizing Exploration for Debugging 295Position Sizing in Futures Mode 298viiCONTENTSAPPENDIX B Excel System Backtester 301Data Arrays 301Keywords 302Functions and Subroutines 302APPENDIX C Python System Backtester 309Data Arrays or Lists 309Keywords and Identifiers 310Classes 310Indicator Classes and Functions 315Python-Specific Keywords 320www.rasabourse.com
Page 1 and 2: THE ULTIMATEALGORITHMICTRADING SYST
Page 3 and 4: THE ULTIMATEALGORITHMICTRADING SYST
Page 5: CONTENTSAbout the authorIntroductio
Page 9 and 10: ABOUT THE AUTHORIt was March of 198
Page 11 and 12: Well that was 27 years ago and I di
Page 13 and 14: xivINTRODUCTION TO THE ULTIMATE ALG
Page 15 and 16: xviINTRODUCTION TO THE ULTIMATE ALG
Page 17 and 18: CHAPTER 1Introductionto TradingAlgo
Page 19 and 20: However, at this introductory stage
Page 21 and 22: completely above the tableau. If th
Page 23 and 24: Don’t get bogged down trying to u
Page 25 and 26: checking account was down the $10K,
Page 27 and 28: Short Liquidation Condition—What
Page 29 and 30: One BarStrengthTwo BarStrengthThree
Page 31 and 32: and inexperienced trading system pr
Page 33 and 34: Input = 6StartInput = 4Input <> 6In
Page 35 and 36: The diagram in Figure 1.4 looks cle
Page 37 and 38: observed. If the latter criterion i
Page 39 and 40: Start or NewBarIs C >AVG(C,200)YesN
Page 41 and 42: CHAPTER 2Stochastics andAverages an
Page 43 and 44: The basic theory behind the ADX is
Page 45 and 46: 4. Divide the 14-day smoothed plus
Page 47 and 48: if myADX < 35 thenif MarketPosition
Page 49 and 50: TABLE 2.1Performance of Directional
Page 51 and 52: FIGURE 2.4Source: TradeStationExamp
Page 53 and 54: Start orNew BarIs RSI < 30YesBuy Ma
Page 55 and 56: RSI DivergenceMarket Continuing to
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If marketPosition =-1 and close > e
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TABLE 2.3Performance of RSI Failure
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Start orNew BarIs Slow %K CrossingA
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TABLE 2.4Performance of Stochastic
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it is boundless extended readings a
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TABLE 2.5Performance of CCI algorit
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FIGURE 2.11Source: TradeStationThe
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We will discuss moving averages in
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MACDAvg = XAverage( MyMACD,9)MACDDi
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FIGURE 2.13Source: TradeStationThre
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LC0_E0B −25000 −41790 398 −62
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FIGURE 2.14Source: TradeStationA 60
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TABLE 2.8 Performance of Bollinger
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If filterTrade = false thenIf close
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Keltner ChannelChester Keltner brou
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FIGURE 2.15Source: TradeStationKelt
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35000300002500020000150001000050000
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TABLE 2.12Best Parameter Sets of Ke
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CHAPTER 3Complete TradingAlgorithms
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Box 3.1 Turtle System #1Buy one tic
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TABLE 3.1Turtle System 1 without LT
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TABLE 3.3Turtle System 1 with LTLF
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TABLE 3.4Tandem Performance of Turt
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Pause the Battle—Let’s Talk Ris
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Box 3.3 Battle Royale—And the Com
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TABLE 3.5Single Moving Average (SMA
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TABLE 3.8Donchian Channel Breakout
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we have, because who has the time t
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%Winners ShortLen InterLen StopDoll
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on a peak. This demonstrates a lack
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The correlation coefficients range
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TABLE 3.13The Best Results for the
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TABLE 3.17Results for the Donchian
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FIGURE 3.5AmiBroker’s walk-forwar
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direction of the 200-day moving ave
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range day and initially puts on two
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CHAPTER 4Introduction toAmiBroker
Page 131 and 132:
Things All Programmers Need to Know
Page 133 and 134:
expressions deal with a string of c
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AFL uses functions DateNum(), DateT
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to Short and Cover as well. If you
Page 139 and 140:
FIGURE 4.2The AmiBroker Editor wind
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to the user. Instead of having to r
Page 143 and 144:
This is where you can change the va
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shortMav = MA(C,avgLen1);longMav =
Page 147 and 148:
code. This is a very difficult thin
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the order of the arrays. I admit th
Page 151 and 152:
FIGURE 4.17The AFL Code Wizard ‘
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■■■This time click on is grea
Page 155 and 156:
This should look very similar to th
Page 157 and 158:
before a single line of code is typ
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COND3 = C > MA(C,100);COND1 = cente
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’********************************
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FIGURE 5.1trading.Once you define t
Page 165 and 166:
GetDataGET DATACOMPONENTLoad Data i
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152USING MICROSOFT EXCEL TO BACKTES
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performance of the trading system.
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156 FIGURE 5.9 The Visual Basic Edi
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FIGURE 5.12This error message appea
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End IfIf marketPosition = -1 ThenCa
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■■moc—Market On Close order.
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Simple Moving Average Crossover usi
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Call Trade(ExitShort, "S-ATR Prof",
Page 183 and 184:
168USING PYTHON TO BACKTEST YOUR AL
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It works well on both Unix and Wind
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function modules and some are a lit
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inclusive, the number of iterations
Page 191 and 192:
176This indicator is programmed as
Page 193 and 194:
if prices[curBar - offset] < prices
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All these files deal with opening a
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entryPrice,fileList,entryPrice,entr
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Python has a ton of reusable code a
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186USING PYTHON TO BACKTEST YOUR AL
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portfolioClass. These classes are n
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percent wins, number of trades, and
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>>> c = a + b>>> cAfter you hit ent
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you don’t need to know exactly ho
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Shorting occurs when the low of the
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That was the long entry logic only
Page 215 and 216:
FIGURE 6.4brackets.A Python run-tim
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prevAvg2 and today’s avg1 must be
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■ TradeStation IDE204AN INTRODUCT
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206AN INTRODUCTION TO EASYLANGUAGEt
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FIGURE 7.5The algorithm with a sing
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the Vars statement and initialize t
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TABLE 7.1EasyLanguage Keywords and
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214AN INTRODUCTION TO EASYLANGUAGEF
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standard deviations. In our example
Page 233 and 234:
218AN INTRODUCTION TO EASYLANGUAGEt
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into a project makes it easier to a
Page 237 and 238:
If marketPosition =-1 thenbeginend;
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or program any trading idea. Practi
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CHAPTER 8Genetic Optimization,Walk
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superfast processors, searching a l
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This equation involves four unknown
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For generation = 1 To 100 ' total g
Page 249 and 250:
Converting Fitness in Terms of Slic
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'the 6 darts landedRandomizeFor l =
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roulette(i) = Rnd(1#)If roulette(i)
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selection and reproduction may even
Page 257 and 258:
This is just one possible solution.
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history of each market. This test w
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Crossover RateThe rate that determi
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TradeStation’s and AmiBroker’s
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TABLE 8.3In-Sample Testing TA2Le Se
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Here are the various calculations t
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1. movAvgLen { 50 to 150 by 10 incr
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TABLE 8.6The Out-of-Sample (OOS) Re
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your algorithm are each written on
Page 275 and 276:
That’s it! These seven lines of c
Page 277 and 278:
[Equity]350003000025000200001500010
Page 279 and 280:
Calculating Start Trade Drawdown Wi
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A loop is used to flow through each
Page 283 and 284:
The maximum drawdown of this algori
Page 285 and 286:
■ Fixed Fractional272PORTFOLIO AN
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FIGURE 9.2Add a strategy to your st
Page 289 and 290:
276FIGURE 9.6The UGTATS markets and
Page 291 and 292:
278FIGURE 9.9 How to adjust the set
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FIGURE 9.12 The Trade Analysis wind
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282PORTFOLIO ANALYSISFIGURE 9.15thi
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FIGURE 9.18 Profit and drawdown are
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FIGURE 9.20 To set the portfolio st
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FIGURE 9.24Source: TradeStationThe
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count makes sense; trades are turne
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APPENDIX AAmiBrokerHere is a brief
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switchbreak (part of the switch sta
Page 309 and 310:
Here is the source code from Chapte
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PctSize = PositionRisk * MarginDepo
Page 313 and 314:
■ KeywordsprevMarketPositionmarke
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upSumAvg = upSum / lengthdnSumAvg =
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Sub BollingerBand(dataList, length,
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308EXCEL SYSTEM BACKTESTERIf (kVal
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■ Keywords and Identifierscurrent
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312PYTHON SYSTEM BACKTESTERdef calc
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sysMark =self.systemMarkets[i]avgLo
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class stochClass(object):class stoc
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318PYTHON SYSTEM BACKTESTERfor i in
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■ Python-Specific Keywordsandasas
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Monte Carlo Analysis# Monte Carlo A
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FIGURE D.1324TRADESTATION AND EASYL
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Simple RSI with Profit Objective an
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If condition1 and condition2 then b
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330TRADESTATION AND EASYLANGUAGEIf(
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if lastTradeLoser thenbeginif curre
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Value1 = swingHighBar(1,h,pivotHiSt
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■■■■■■■Statistically
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INDEXNote: Page references followed
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calculation2 standard deviations, u
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ES. See Exhaustive searchESB. See E
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Mini Russell day trading system, na
Page 357 and 358:
PPO. See Percentage price oscillato
Page 359 and 360:
Time-based market order (MOC), exit
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Ultimate Algorithmic Trading System

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