2021 Belmont Stakes Wager Guide XBGlobal

1/ST BET // 

WAGER GUIDE 

BELMONT STAKES 

JUNE5/2021 

https://secure.xbglobal.com/main.aspx 

BELMONT 

PARK


POST POSITIONS 

1 

BOURBONIC (15/1) 

Owner: Calumet Farm 

Trainer: Todd Pletcher 

Jockey: Kendrick Carmouche 

5 

FRANCE GO DE INA 

(30/1) 

Owner: Yuji Inaida 

Trainer: Hideyuki Mori 

Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr. 

2 

ESSENTIAL QUALITY 

(2/1) 

Owner: Godolphin 

Trainer: Brad Cox 

Jockey: Luis Saez 

6 

KNOWN AGENDA (6/1) 

Owner: St. Elias Stable 


Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr. 

3 

ROMBAUER (3/1) 

Owner: John & Diane Fradkin 

Trainer: Mike McCarthy 

Jockey: John Velazquez 

7 

ROCK YOUR WORLD 

(9/2) 

Owner: Hronis Racing & David 

Michael Talla 

Trainer: John Sadler 

Jockey: Joel Rosario 

4 

HOT ROD CHARLIE (7/2) 

Owner: Roadrunner Racing, 

Boat Racing, Strauss Bros. 

Racing & Gainesway 

Trainer: Doug O’Neill 

Jockey: Flavien Prat 

8 

OVERTOOK (2O/1) 

Owner: Repole Stable, St. Elias 

Stable & Coolmore 


Jockey: Manny Franco 

Odds listed are Belmont Park morning line odds. 


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MEET THE BELMONT 

CONTENDERS 

By Johnny D., @XBJohnnyD 

ROMBAUER: The Preakness winner will have a new jockey in the Belmont Stakes. Hall of 

Fame jockey John Velazquez, who rode Medina Spirit across the finish first at the Kentucky 

Derby and to a third-place finish in Preakness, will replace Flavien Prat, who piloted this son 

of Twirling Candy to a Baltimore upset. Prat will re-mount Kentucky Derby third-place finisher 

Hot Rod Charlie for a shot at Belmont success. No official word on why the saddle switch, but 

an educated guess is that Prat may have committed his Belmont services to Hot Rod Charlie’s 

connections immediately after the Derby and before the surprising Preakness triumph. In any 

case, it’s impossible not to be impressed with Rombauer’s dominant Preakness performance. 

At Pimlico, Rombauer raced within striking distance of the early leaders without being urged 

and then finished with gusto and attitude. That’s a great running style for the Belmont. Can he 

immediately repeat in the Belmont what was a lifetime-best effort at much less odds than the 

nearly 12-1 he was in the Preakness? 

HOT ROD CHARLIE: As expected, this colt ran well at 5.60-1 odds in the Kentucky Derby to finish 

third, beaten just one length. In keeping with the colt’s longer break between races in 2021 (six 

and seven weeks), connections decided to skip the Preakness and aim for the Belmont Stakes 

with five weeks’ rest. All systems seem ‘go’ as the colt has trained well in the interim. This son of 

Oxbow out of an Indian Charlie mare didn’t close much ground on leaders through the Churchill 

stretch, but he didn’t lose any either. Ultimately, the Louisiana Derby winner denied Kentucky 

Derby favorite Essential Quality’s rallying bid for third in Louisville. This colt has shown speed in 

the past and probably will be forwardly placed in the Belmont Stakes. 

ESSENTIAL QUALITY: The Kentucky Derby favorite could manage a mere fourth-place finish, 

but he ran well despite losing ground. He was bothered at the start, recovered, raced wide and 

closed well in the lane. The lost ground certainly affected his final placing, but he effectively had 

dead aim on Hot Rod Charlie and couldn’t pass him in the lane for third. Under the care of 2020 

Eclipse Award-winning trainer Brad Cox, last season’s 2-year-old champion worked a solid five 

furlongs at Churchill Downs for his penultimate Belmont morning move. The son of Tapit has 

displayed a versatile style in previous races, and that will come in handy in New York where, 

contrary to popular opinion, it’s best to be closer to the early pace than to attempt to rally from a 

distant zip code. 

KNOWN AGENDA: The Curlin Florida Derby winner started as fourth choice in the Kentucky 

Derby, at contender’s odds of nearly 10-1. He finished a disappointing ninth. Although he about 

split the field, he had no real excuse. Neither jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. nor trainer Todd Pletcher had 

any explanation for the colt’s somewhat dull Derby effort and will give him another shot in what 

amounts to a ‘home game’ at Belmont Park. If you draw a line through his Kentucky Derby noneffort 

– and it should be noted, this colt has ‘phoned it in’ before and immediately bounced back 

– his Florida Derby form fits in the Belmont. Not a particularly good work horse, he’s a little guy 

who has been able to put it all together for three victories in seven starts. 



HANDICAP THE BELMONT 

LIKE EDDIE OLCZYK 

? 

DID YOU KNOW? 

Similar to this year’s Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, we asked renowned 

1/ST and NBC handicapper Eddie Olczyk which handicapping angles he applies 

when analyzing the Belmont Stakes. Now, for the first time, you can reconstruct 

Edzo’s Belmont Stakes approach and put it to work for yourself by combining 

forces with the 1/ST BET app. 

The 1/ST BET app uses more than 

50 factors in evaluating each horse 

in a race, drawing from a library of 

more than 200,000 previous races 

to match past success with future 

success. 1/ST BET automatically 

matches and ranks the proven, most 

successful factors in each race, while 

it also gives you the ability to select 

your own set of factors to make 

personalized, artificial intelligencebased 

selections in mere seconds. 

“Almost everything for me when it comes to the Belmont Stakes zeroes in on the mile and one-half distance,” Olczyk 

explained. “You certainly have to realize there are limitations and restrictions for some horses who simply can’t get the 

distance. Past running lines, running style and breeding can tell us the most.” 

BREEDING MATTERS 

Eddie leans heavily on pedigree in the Belmont, and the 1/ST BET algorithm 

could not agree more. How important is pedigree to the Belmont? Consider: 

Top 1/ST BET Belmont Stakes Distance Pedigree Ratings 

• 2020 Tiz the Law WON 

• 2017 Tapwrit WON 

• 2016 Creator WON 

FINISHING ABILITY 

As the longest Triple Crown race by 440 yards, horses with an ability to finish 

strong over the previously shorter distances are coveted. That’s not necessarily 

come-from-behind horses, but rather those who have a sustained late kick 

from any spot in the race. The factors here lean less toward the early (E1, E2) 

pace of the Derby and Preakness and more to those who can sustain it. Overall 

speed is still important, but given we’ve seen so many poor Derby performances 

improved upon at Belmont, give a horse a mulligan for a poor showing. 

EXTRA POINTS 

“Past experience at Belmont Park can be a decider when choosing between 

evenly-matched horses who never raced at Belmont versus ones who have,” 

Olczyk said. “Good Belmont experience gets some preference on the horsefor-course 

if runners are of similar ability.” And, always prepare for an off track. 

1/ST BET FACTORS TO APPLY 

DISTANCE PEDIGREE RATING 

DIRT PEDIGREE RATING 


LAST LATE PACE 

AVG. LAST 3 LATE PACE 

LAST TURN TIME 

AVG. LAST 3 TURN TIMES 

AVG. BEST 2 OF LAST 3 SPEED 


BEST SPEED TODAY’S TRACK 

AVG. EARNINGS TODAY’S TRACK 

BEST SPEED OFF TRACK 

MUD PEDIGREE RATING 



FACTORS THROUGH HISTORY 

BELMONT STAKES 2017-2020 

We searched the 1/ST BET archives to re-examine the last five editions of the Belmont Stakes. See where the winners ranked 

best in their respective fields in terms of handicapping factors, and look for those commonalities with this year’s runners when 

using the 1/ST BET app to handicap the final jewel in the Triple Crown. Learn more. 

2020 2018 

2017 

WINNER: TIZ THE LAW 

RANKED 1ST IN 13 CATEGORIES 


BEST SPEED LAST 3 

WIN PERCENT 

BEST LIFETIME SPEED 

BEST SPEED FAST TRACK 

AVG. LIFETIME EARNINGS 

TRAINER CURRENT YEAR 

AVG. EARNINGS TODAY’S DISTANCE 

AVG. EARNINGS TODAY’S TRACK 


BEST SPEED THIS DISTANCE 


TRAINER WIN % 6 MONTHS 

HORSES WHO LED MOST FACTORS: 

TIZ THE LAW (13), SOLE VOLANTE (8), 

TAP IT TO WIN (8) 

2019 

WINNER: SIR WINSTON 

RANKED 1ST IN 6 CATEGORIES 

AVG. ALL WEATHER EARNINGS 

BEST SPEED ALL WEATHER 

SPEED LAST RACE 

BEST SPEED TRACK 

AVG. EARNINGS TRACK 

TRAINER CURRENT MEET 


JOEVIA (9), TAX (7), SIR WINSTON (6), 

TACITUS (6) 

WINNER: JUSTIFY 

RANKED FIRST IN 28 FACTORS 

SPEED LAST RACE 

LAST E2 PACE 

LAST E1 PACE 

BEST SPEED LAST 3 

AVG. LAST 3 PURSE 


AVG. OF LAST 3 E1 PACE 

TRAINER WIN % 2 YRS 

BEST LIFETIME SPEED 

AVG. OF LAST 3 E2 PACE 


AVG. OFF TRACK EARNINGS 

BEST SPEED FAST TRACK 

AVG. LAST 3 RACES CLASSES 

WIN PERCENT 

TRAINER CURRENT YEAR 

LAST FINISH POSITION 

AVG. LIFETIME EARNINGS 

AVG. SPEED LAST 3 

HORSES BEATEN % 

TRAINER WIN % 1 YEAR 

IN THE MONEY % 

DAYS SINCE LAST RACE 


JOCKEY WIN % 1 YEAR 

TRAINER-JOCKEY WIN % 2 YEARS 

AVG. EARNINGS TODAY’S DISTANCE 

BEST SPEED THIS DISTANCE 


JUSTIFY (28), HOFBURG (6), 

FREE DROP BILLY (3) 

WINNER: TAPWRIT 



DIRT PEDIGREE RATING 

TURF PEDIGREE RATING 

LAST PURSE 

MUD PEDIGREE RATING 


TWISTED TOM (12), MEANTIME (10), 

LOOKIN AT LEE (6) 

2016 

WINNER: CREATOR 



DISTANCE WORKED 



EXAGGERATOR (10), GOVERNOR 

MALIBU (9), LANI (6) 

FACTOR CATEGORIES: 

= PERFORMANCE 

= JOCKEY+ TRAINER 

= RESULTS 

= PEDIGREE 

Tiz the Law (2020) 

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1/ST BET: BELMONT STAKES 

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE PICKS 

The 1/ST INDEX analyzes millions of data points over more than 50 important handicapping factors to create an exclusive 

handicapping tool that instantly puts the power of years of experience in the palm of your hand. Use the AI-assisted 

selections or create and analyze your own factors ONLY in the 1/ST BET App. Learn More 

HORSE WIN% PLACE% SHOW% 

FAIR ODDS 

1 BOURBONIC 

10% 17% 34% 9/1 

2 ESSENTIAL QUALITY 26% 58% 75% 3/1 

3 ROMBAUER 

14% 31% 50% 

4 HOT ROD CHARLIE 21% 31% 44% 

5 FRANCE GO DE INA 6% 10% 14% 

6/1 

4/1 

15/1 

6 KNOWN AGENDA 

14% 24% 38% 

7 ROCK YOUR WORLD 6% 10% 14% 

8 OVERTOOK 

5% 20% 32% 

6/1 

15/1 

20/1 



1/ST BET: BELMONT PARK 6/5 

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE PICKS 

Race # - Post Time 

Win Place Show Fair Odds 

Race # - Post Time 

Win Place Show Fair Odds 

RACE 1 (11:35 AM ET) // MAIDEN ($90K) 

3 HAGLER 30% 44% 58% 5/2 

1 DISENGAGE 13% 24% 33% 7/1 

6 BAYTOWN WARRIOR 11% 33% 49% 8/1 

1A GOLDEN HOLIDAY 10% 29% 48% 9/1 

RACE 8 (3:58 PM ET) // GRADE 1 JUST A GAME ($500K) 

11 BLOWOUT 16% 33% 48% 5/1 

1 ZOFELLE 14% 19% 29% 6/1 

4 REGAL GLORY 11% 27% 43% 8/1 

5 ALWAYS SHOPPING 11% 24% 32% 8/1 

RACE 2 (12:09 PM ET) // MAIDEN ($90K) 

8 RANGER FOX 21% 38% 50% 4/1 

7 KING JAMES 12% 28% 38% 8/1 

6 PIPELINE 11% 19% 30% 8/1 

10 MACH ONE 10% 18% 25% 9/1 

RACE 9 (4:42 PM ET) // GRADE 1 METROPOLITAN ($1M) 

6 KNICKS GO 33% 54% 68% 2/1 

1 MISCHEVIOUS ALEX 26% 53% 74% 3/1 

3 SILVER STATE 15% 35% 55% 6/1 

2 DR POST 11% 24% 45% 8/1 

RACE 3 (12:47 ET) // GRADE 1 WOODY STEPHENS ($400K) 

2 DRAIN THE CLOCK 31% 54% 63% 2/1 

6 CADDO RIVER 22% 43% 61% 7/2 

1 NOVA RAGS 17% 35% 57% 5/1 

5 TULANE TRYST 10% 22% 34% 9/1 

RACE 10 (5:38 PM ET) // GRADE 1 MANHATTAN ($750K) 

7 CHANNEL CAT 28% 43% 56% 5/2 

6 ROCKEMPEROR 13% 27% 36% 7/1 

4 DOMESTIC SPENDING 9% 29% 43% 10/1 

9 GUFO 9% 15% 23% 10/1 

RACE 4 (1:22 PM ET) // GRADE 2 BROOKLYN ($400K) 

9 LONE ROCK 25% 57% 73% 3/1 

8 TIZAMAGICIAN 20% 30% 42% 4/1 

6 MORETTI 13% 30% 48% 7/1 

5 MUSICAL HEART 13% 23% 36% 7/1 

RACE 11 (6:49 PM ET) // GRADE 1 BELMONT STAKES ($1.5M) 

2 ESSENTIAL QUALITY 26% 58% 75% 3/1 

4 HOT ROD CHARLIE 21% 31% 44% 4/1 

3 ROMBAUER 14% 31% 50% 6/1 

6 KNOWN AGENDA 14% 24% 38% 6/1 

RACE 5 (2:01 PM ET) // GRADE 1 ACORN ($500K) 

6 SEARCH RESULTS 33% 54% 68% 2/1 

3 MISS BRAZIL 26% 53% 74% 3/1 

4 DAYOUTOFTHEOFFICE 15% 35% 55% 6/1 

1 TRAVEL COLUMN 11% 24% 45% 8/1 

RACE 12 (7:34 PM ET) // ALLOWANCE ($80K) 

11 MY LIPS ARE SEALED 18% 34% 36% 9/2 

9 PANDAMOM 15% 27% 36% 6/1 

12 OK HONEY 14% 27% 36% 6/1 

2 RUNAWAY RUMOUR 11% 25% 42% 8/1 

RACE 6 (2:41 PM ET) // GRADE 1 JAIPUR ($400K) 

4 FAST BOAT 23% 36% 49% 7/2 

6 BOUND FOR NOWHERE 18% 28% 40% 9/2 

8 GREGORIAN CHANT 12% 21% 38% 8/1 

5 GREYES CREEK 8% 21% 27% 12/1 

RACE 13 (8:05 ET) // ALLOWANCE ($94K) 

2 HARD LOVE 19% 46% 54% 9/2 

3 MICROSECOND 15% 27% 43% 6/1 

1A VALUE ENGINEERING 13% 27% 35% 7/1 

9 OPRY 11% 21% 26% 8/1 

RACE 7 (3:18 PM ET) // GRADE 1 OGDEN PHIPPS ($500K) 

2 VALIANCE 29% 52% 70% 5/2 

5 SHEDARESTHEDEVIL 24% 44% 61% 3/1 

3 LETRUSKA 11% 25% 38% 8/1 

6 WATER WHITE 11% 15% 28% 8/1 



WAGERING FACTS 

Below are some informative wagering tidbits from past Belmont Stakes. 

WIN-PLACE-SHOW ODDS 

(Last 20 Years, Odds to $1) 

Win Odds: Average: 13.47-to-1 

High: 70.25-to-1 (Sarava, 2002) 

Low: .75-to-1 (American Pharoah, 2015) 

Notable: 3 of the last 6 winners were 4-to-5 or less, including 

Tiz the Law a year ago. 

Place Odds: Average: 8.77-to-1 

High: 28-to-1 (Commissioner, 2014) 

Low: 1.95-to-1 (Tacitus, 2019) 

Notable: The favorite has finished 2nd twice in the last 4 years 

(Tacitus, 2019; Irish War Cry, 2017). 

Show Odds: Average: 12.75-to-1 

High: 34.25-to-1 (Anak Nakal, 2008) 

Low: 1.00-to-1 (Funny Cide, 2003) 

Notable: Orb in 2013 was the last Belmont favorite to finish third. 

EXACTA PAYOFFS 

(Last 20 years, $2 Payoffs) 

Average: $295.33 

High: $2454.00 (Sarava-Medaglia d’Oro, 2002) 

Low: $13.60 (American Pharoah-Frosted, 2015) 

Notable: 5 of the last 6 Belmont Stakes $2 exactas have paid 

$96 or less. 

TRIFECTA PAYOFFS 


Average: $1413.22 

High: $12,504.50 (Sarava-Medaglia d’Oro-Sunday Break, 2002) 

Low: $54.75 (American Pharoah-Frosted-Keen Ice, 2015) 

Notable: The $1 trifecta has paid $1000 or more in 6 of the last 

20 years. 

SUPERFECTA PAYOFFS 


Average: $10,134.24 

High: $72,667 (Sarava-Medaglia d’Oro-Sunday Break- 

Magic Weisner, 2002) 

Low: $285 (American Pharoah-Frosted-Keen Ice-Mubtaahij, 2015) 

Average Odds of Fourth-place finishers: 10.86-to-1 

Notable: 6 of the last 8 Belmont superfectas paid $1000 or more. 

LAST 10 FAVORITES 

Year Horse Odds Fin. 

2020 Tiz the Law 4-5 WON 

2019 Tacitus 9-5 2nd 

2018 Justify 4-5 WON 

2017 Irish War Cry 5-2 2nd 

2016 Exaggerator 7-5 11th 

2015 American Pharoah 3-5 WON 

2014 California Chrome 4-5 4th 

2013 Orb 2-1 3rd 

2012 Dullahan 5-2 7th 

2011 Animal Kingdom 5-2 6th 

HIGHEST-PRICED SUPERFECTA FINISHERS 

(Last 20 Years, Odds to $1) 

Odds Horse Year Fin. 

70.25 Sarava 2002 WON 

38.50 Da’Tara 2008 WON 

36.00 Birdstone 2004 WON 

34.25 Anak Nakal 2008 3rd/DH 

28.75 Ready’s Echo 2008 3rd/DH 

28.00 Commissioner 2014 2nd 

BEATEN KENTUCKY DERBY FAVORITES IN BELMONT (LAST 35 YEARS) 


2020 Tiz the Law* 4-5 (fav) WON 

2003 Empire Maker 2-1 WON 

2001 Point Given 6-5 (fav) WON 

1993 Prairie Bayou 5-2 (fav) DNF 

1991 Hansel 4-1 WON 

1989 Easy Goer 8-5 WON 

--2021, Essential Quality, Derby favorite (4th) 

*--Belmont held before Derby 

2019 & 2020 BELMONT HANDLE (IN MILLIONS) 

Bet 2019 2020 

WPS: $17.3 $12.0 

Trifecta: $10.6 $6.4 

Exacta: $9.9 $6.5 

Super: $6.4 $3.7 

Pick 4: $3.6 $1.2 

Pick 6: $1.6 $685K 




GRADE 1 - $1,500,000 

3YO – 1 1/2 MILES (DIRT) 

KNOWN AGENDA, 

ESSENTIAL QUALITY STAND TALL 

By Brent Musburger, @brentmusburger 

ANALYSIS: With no Triple Crown possibility, the Belmont Stakes has a very different feel. 

It is a race for true racing fans – and true horseplayers. Everybody who is still interested in 

betting the race is a wise guy. There are only eight horses in the race – and only one that was a 

winner his last time out. That was ROMBAUER, who delivered at 11-1 in the Preakness. Recent 

history says Preakness horses – winners and losers – don’t do well in the Belmont. The only 

exceptions since 2006 were American Pharoah and Justify, and I don’t see any horse like 

those in this 3-year-old crop. ESSENTIAL QUALITY is a deserving favorite, largely because he 

was undefeated before he finished fourth in the Kentucky Derby. Two of his victories came 

as a precocious 2-year-old in Grade 1 races. KNOWN AGENDA (Florida Derby) and ROCK 

YOUR WORLD (Santa Anita Derby) also have Grade 1 success on their past performances, 

and that is not to be ignored this weekend. Being sired by Curlin, Known Agenda appears 

to be bred for the 12 furlongs. Rock Your World figures to set the early pace, so he may 

try to become only the fourth horse this century to lead the Belmont from gate to wire. 

MAIN CONTENDERS: KNOWN AGENDA never had a chance in the Derby after drawing 

the No. 1 post position. He did about as much as he could going from 17th to finish ninth. 

This time he drew much more favorably in post 6. With 11 fewer horses, traffic should not 

be a problem, even in New York. This colt has the top Equibase speed figure among 

3-year-old males, and he earned that 112 with his triumph in the Florida Derby. Newly 

minted Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher and reigning three-time Eclipse Award-winning 

jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. will be ready to rumble. So start spreading the news: they can make 

it anywhere. ESSENTIAL QUALITY is poised for a big effort after his Derby disappointment 

that marked the only time in his six starts that he did not win. He got bumped at the start 

in Louisville, but the smaller field means he should have a cleaner trip on Long Island. Don’t 

forget his daddy: Tapit has sired three of the last six Belmont winners at a mile and one-half. 

VALUE PLAYS: With so few horses, value will be hard to come by. At 6-1 on the morning 

line, KNOWN AGENDA should bring it. ROMBAUER has to overcome the problem that 

all deep closers have at Belmont Park, and that is the short, 366-yard homestretch. The 

last winner to come from more than two lengths behind at the top of the stretch was 

Summer Bird in 2009. Yet the Preakness winner should still figure into the superfecta. 

$100 WAGERING STRATEGY: 

• $50 Exacta Box: KNOWN AGENDA and ESSENTIAL QUALITY ($100) 

EDDIE OLCZYK’S SPOT PLAYS 

1/ST and NBC handicapper Eddie 

Olczyk brings momentum into Belmont 

Stakes Day after winning Monday’s 

Xpressbet Santa Anita Challenge 

Handicapping Tournament.He turns his 

attention Saturday on Belmont for a trio 

of key plays. Follow Edzo’s plays each 

week – only with 1/ST and Xpressbet! 

Race 3 // Grade 1 Woody Stephens 

#4 Dream Shake (5-2 ML) 

He should get a golden trip with the 

speed of Drain the Clock, Jackie’s Warrior 

and Caddo River all battling for the front. 

Look for him to break, settle, sit behind 

the speed and make a run. Win bet. 

Race 9 // Grade 1 Metropolitan 

#1 Mischevious Alex (5-2 ML) 

The speed of the race is Knicks Go, 

but he’s run 1-turn races on dirt only 4 

times in this career – winning only the 

first race of his life. This is a 1-turn race, 

so at 2-5 odds, no thanks. Mischevious 

Alex can sit it the golden spot behind 

the big favorite. Not sure he wants to 

go this far, but hoping that he trips out. 

The price will be fair, and with the trip I 

see for him, why not? Win-place bet. 

Race 13 // Grade 1 Belmont Stakes 

Essential Quality is the horse to beat in 

the Belmont and I’ll key him in the exotics. 

$100 Wagering Strategy: 

• $26 Win: Essential Quality 

• $5 Exacta Key-Box: Essential Quality 

with Rombauer, Known Agenda ($20) 

• $2 Trifecta Part-Wheel: Essential 

Quality over Rombauer, Known Agenda, 

Hot Rod Charlie over ALL ($36) 

• $1 Trifecta Part-Wheel: Rombauer, 

Known Agenda, Hot Rod Charlie over 

Essential Quality over ALL ($18) 

TOP 4 PICKS 

1. KNOWN AGENDA 

2. ESSENTIAL QUALITY 

3. HOT ROD CHARLIE 

4. ROMBAUER 



GRADE 1 - $1,500,000 


BEWARE THE BELMONT 

BOUNCE-BACK 

By Jeremy Plonk, @HorsePlayerNow 

ANALYSIS: Since Affirmed swept the Triple Crown in 1978, only Easy Goer 

(1989) and American Pharoah (2015) have won the Belmont Stakes as 2-yearold 

champions. It’s extremely difficult for a horse like ESSENTIAL QUALITY 

to be brilliant enough and developed at 2 to win a title, and then be sustained 

and improved to win this mile and one-half test at age 3. As for the Preakness 

champion, ROMBAUER will try to become the first horse to win the final two jewels 

in the Triple Crown without competing in the Kentucky Derby since Pillory in 1922. 

History doesn’t like the chances of the Belmont Stakes’ biggest names, so I invite 

you to shop. 

MAIN CONTENDERS: There still are positive cases to be made for ESSENTIAL 

QUALITY and ROMBAUER. Pedigree-wise, ESSENTIAL QUALITY fits the Belmont 

bill. His papa Tapit has sired 3 Belmont Stakes winners and 2 runners-up just 

since 2014. ROMBAUER picks up jockey John Velazquez, far and away the leading 

Belmont Park active jockey (nearing 2000 local wins) and 2-time winner of the 

final jewel. HOT ROD CHARLIE, the Kentucky Derby third-place finisher, managed 

to lure Flavien Prat away from ROMBAUER. Like ESSENTIAL QUALITY, HOT ROD 

CHARLIE likely benefits from the defection of the top pace players from the Derby 

and Preakness. Expect him in the early hunt, along with ROCK YOUR WORLD. 

VALUE PLAYS: The two biggest Derby disappointments were KNOWN AGENDA 

(9th) and ROCK YOUR WORLD (17th). A Derby dud followed by a Belmont rebound 

victory has been common in recent years, see Tapwrit (6th), Creator (13th), Palace 

Malice (12th) and Union Rags (7th) just since 2012. KNOWN AGENDA runs out of 

his home stall for a Todd Pletcher barn that has 4 wins and 8 seconds all-time in 

this race. 


• $80 Win: KNOWN AGENDA 

• $10 Exacta Box: KNOWN AGENDA and ESSENTIAL QUALITY ($20) 

STATS & TRENDS 

BELMONT WINNERS’ LAYOFFS 

(LAST 10 YEARS) 

Days Horse 

Year 

84 Tiz the Law 2020 

28 Sir Winston 2019 

21 Justify 2018 

35 Tapwrit 2017 

35 Creator 2016 

21 American Pharoah 2015 

28 Tonalist 2014 

35 Palace Malice 2013 

35 Union Rags 2012 

35 Ruler on Ice 2011 

PREAKNESS WINNERS IN BELMONT 


‘20 N/A 

‘19 War of Will 7-2 9th 

‘18 Justify 4-5* WON 

‘17 Did Not Compete 

‘16 Exaggerator 7-5* 11th 

‘15 A. Pharoah 3-5* WON 

‘14 Cal. Chrome 4-5* 4th 

‘13 Oxbow 10-1 2nd 


‘11 Shackleford 6-1 5th 


TAP IT IN 

Offspring of Tapit in Recent Belmont Stakes 

Year Horse 

‘14 Tonalist WON 

‘15 Frosted 2nd 

‘16 Creator WON 

‘17 Tapwrit WON 

‘18 Hofburg 3rd 

‘19 Tacitus 2nd 

KNOW THIS 

TOP 4 PICKS 

1. KNOWN AGENDA 



4. ROCK YOUR WORLD 



GRADE 1 - $1,500,000 


A DO-OVER 

FOR HORSE AND HANDICAPPER 

By Jeff Siegel @jsiegelracing 

ANALYSIS: After the riders had dismounted and were headed back to the Churchill 

Downs jockeys’ room, an NBC-TV reporter was instructed to intercept Joel Rosario. 

The assignment was to secure an explanation for the poor performance by the Kentucky 

Derby’s 9-2 second choice, unbeaten ROCK YOUR WORLD, who had never gotten 

involved at any stage of the race and wound up 17th of 19, 24 lengths behind first-place 

finisher Medina Spirit, the colt he had trounced in the Santa Anita Derby. Rosario was 

prepared to tell the TV audience that he had been completely eliminated at the break and 

“had no chance.” But before his explanation could be delivered to millions of NBC viewers, 

the telecast time was up, the hosts signed off, and the live interview was scrubbed. Postrace 

video analysis confirmed that ROCK YOUR WORLD was badly compromised at the 

break, but did the poor start amount to 24 lengths worth of trouble? The correct answer is a 

key component to successfully handicapping the third jewel in racing’s Triple Crown. 

MAIN CONTENDERS: Tesla drivers can go from zero-to-60 in a matter of seconds. 

ROCK YOUR WORLD is no Tesla. Even if he breaks well, it takes him several strides to 

approach full speed, leaving him vulnerable to being shuffled back and losing valuable 

early position, especially in a large field. But in the marathon Belmont Stakes, few of the 

entrants will be sent hard from the bell, which should enable the John Sadler-trained colt 

to get to where he needs to be before the field hits the clubhouse turn. At that point, 

if not sooner, he’s liable to encounter fellow West Coaster HOT ROD CHARLIE, who most 

likely will be employing identical, pace-setting/pressing tactics. Though neither has to 

have it, both colts prefer the lead, and whichever one is quick enough to secure the role 

as the controlling speed will have gained a significant advantage. ESSENTIAL QUALITY 

has had five weeks to refresh, is thoroughly genuine, and is certain to attract plenty 

of play. The question is, how much further development does he have? 

VALUE PLAYS: The thoroughly impressive victory in the Preakness by ROMBAUER 

should not be underestimated. The Michael McCarthy-trained ROMBAUER had 

done little in six previous starts to expect such as a superior Pimlico performance, 

but it happened, and it could happen again. 


• $40 Win: ROCK YOUR WORLD ($40) 

• $10 Exacta Box: ROCK YOUR WORLD, HOT ROD CHARLIE, ROMBAUER ($60) 

BELMONT “LAST TIMES” 

THE LAST... 

KENTUCKY DERBY WINNER TO WIN: 

Justify (2018) 

PREAKNESS WINNER TO WIN: 


KENTUCKY DERBY RUNNER-UP TO WIN: 

Tiz the Law (2020; Belmont held first) 

prior Empire Maker (2003) 

PREAKNESS RUNNER-UP TO WIN: 

Victory Gallop (1998) 

PREPPED LAST AT BELMONT TO WIN: 

Sir Winston (2019) 

JOCKEY TO WIN BACK-TO-BACK: 

Laffit Pincay, Jr. 1982-’84 three-peat on 

Conquistador Cielo, Caveat and Swale. 

JOCKEY TO WIN HIS DEBUT: 

Manny Franco (2020 Tiz the Law) 

TRAINER TO WIN BACK-TO-BACK: 

D. Wayne Lukas (1994-‘96) three-peat 

with Tabasco Cat, Thunder Gulch and 

Editor’s Note 

TRAINER TO WIN HIS DEBUT: 

Mark Casse (2019 Sir Winston) 

FILLY TO WIN: 

Rags to Riches (2007) 

FILLY TO COMPETE: 

Unlimited Budget (2013, 6th) 

GELDING TO WIN: 

Ruler On Ice (2011), prior to that Crème 

Fraiche (1985) 

WIRE-TO-WIRE WINNER: 


TOP 4 PICKS 

1. ROCK YOUR WORLD 


3. ROMBAUER 



XBTV BELMONT STAKES 

WORKOUT ANALYSIS 

By Milie Ball & Michelle Yu 

HORSE DATE TRACK DISTANCE TIME 

ROMBAUER 5/28 BEL 4F :50.01 (53/86) 

MICHELLE YU: A very Rombauer-like work for his final pre-Belmont move, in company on the 

outside of a mate ($30K claiming runner-up That Quality). He was not asked down the stretch until 

after they crossed the wire, where he was able to pull away. His mate was restrained down the lane, 

but not persevered with for the big gallop-out where Rombauer went all the way to the backside. 

Though not as visually impressive as his pre-Preakness work, it doesn’t seem like he needs as much 

with just a three-week rest in-between. Now has the benefit of a work over Big Sandy. 

KNOWN AGENDA 5/28 BEL 5F 1:01.12 (1/12) 

MILLIE BALL: Known Agenda looks to be coming into the race hitting on all four cylinders. In 

2007, I asked trainer Todd Pletcher shortly after Rags to Riches won the Belmont stakes what 

the key ingredients are to winning this race. He replied, “A horse that will turn off and is an 

obvious stayer.” Curlin, beaten a head by the filly that year, also shared those qualities and has 

passed them onto his son, Known Agenda. He appeared as relaxed as they come in his latest 

work, May 28. He travelled smoothly over the Belmont surface, even when dealing with the 

unplanned situation of catching up to team of workers and having to split them. Pletcher put 

Known Agenda inside of an older horse, Dr Post, who ran second in last year’s Belmont. Known 

Agenda finished his work well in that morning’s bullet. He is a horse that will turn off and strikes 

me as an obvious stayer. 

HOT ROD CHARLIE 5/22 SA 5F 1:01.60 (29/59) 

MILLIE BALL: From a visual standpoint, Hot Rod Charlie appeared equally as push-button 

and smooth in his work on the morning of May 22 as he did in his breeze the week prior to the 

Kentucky Derby. Jockey Flavien Prat piloted the colt on both occasions. His key pre-Derby workout 

was held about 30 minutes prior to the first race at Santa Anita, so the track was considerably 

tighter and the colt’s adrenaline would have heightened slightly with the change in routine. He was 

slightly more up in the bridle in his pre-Derby work, and a bit handier while needing less effort to 

leave his company on the gallop-out. On the morning of May 22, the dirt was on the deeper side, 

evident by the fact that only 1 horse out of 59 that worked five furlongs stopped the clock in less 

than a minute! It’s been a while since we’ve seen a Santa Anita-trained horse come up short in a 

Grade 1 across the country due to fitness. I’m confident he will run his race. 

ROCK YOUR WORLD 5/21 SA 5F 1:01.20 (15/29) 

MICHELLE YU: Rock Your World was eager to get going in this five-furlong drill in company. By 

catching his target super early on in the work, he caused his rider to put on the brakes. Going 

around the turn, he was under a steady hold, but drew up alongside despite that. Down the lane, 

he maintained his position while the mate was ridden along, and the SA Derby winner opened 

up nearly a length immediately when lightly roused. Good work, but would have liked to see 

him pull away more on the gallop-out. Though, to be fair, he was in classy company today with 

multiple Grade 3-winning veteran Campaign. 

Video provided by XBTV, the home of the latest workouts, analysis and more this 

Triple Crown Season and every other race day of the year. 



EXPERT PICKS 

We tasked our expert racing analysts across the 1/ST family to provide their selections for this year’s third jewel 

in the Triple Crown. 

JEFF 

SIEGEL 

JOHN 

DESANTIS 

MICHELLE 

YU 

NAOMI 

TUKKER 

@jsiegelracing 

@XBJohnnyD 

@themichelleyu 

@NaomiTukker 


HOT ROD CHARLIE 

ROMBAUER 





KNOWN AGENDA 


KNOWN AGENDA 

ROMBAUER 





ROMBAUER 

JEREMY 

PLONK 

TOM 

QUIGLEY 

MILLIE 

BALL 

RON 

NICOLETTI 

@Horseplayernow 

@quigleys_corner 

@camillayakteen 

@ronic17 

KNOWN AGENDA 





KNOWN AGENDA 


ROMBAUER 

KNOWN AGENDA 





KNOWN AGENDA 

ROMBAUER 


CLAUDIA 

SPADARO 

MATT 

DINERMAN 

ZOE 

CADMAN 

JON 

WHITE 

@claudiaspadaro 

@3coltshandicap 

@zoecadman 

@PostTimeJon 


KNOWN AGENDA 


ROMBAUER 



ROMBAUER 



ROMBAUER 


FRANCE GO DE INA 




ROMBAUER 

PETER 

LURIE 

DUSTIN 

FABIAN 

GEORGE 

ORTUZAR 

EDDIE 

OLCZYK 

@Peterlurievo 

@1STBET 

@georgeortuzar 

@1STBET 


KNOWN AGENDA 


ROMBAUER 




KNOWN AGENDA 



ROMBAUER 



ROMBAUER 

KNOWN AGENDA 





NEED-TO-KNOW 

RACE DATE: SATURDAY, JUNE 5 

ENTRIES/POST POSITION DRAW: TUESDAY, JUNE 1 

FIRST RACE POST TIME: 

11:35 A.M. ET 

BELMONT STAKES POST TIME: 6:49 P.M. ET 

WATCH FREE AND WAGER: 

ALL RACES ON 1/ST BET APP & XPRESSBET.COM 

TELEVISION: 

NBC SPORTS, 3-5 PM ET; NBC 5-7 PM ET 

WAGERING NOTES: 

BELMONT GOLD CUP/BELMONT STAKES DAILY DOUBLE (FRI/SAT) 

BELMONT DAY STAKES LINEUP 

Grade 1 Belmont Stakes $1,500,000 3YO 1-1/2 miles 

Grade 1 Metropolitan $1,000,000 3&UP 1 mile 

Grade 1 Manhattan Stakes $750,000 3&UP 1-1/4 miles (turf) 

Grade 1 Ogden Phipps $500,000 4&UP FM 1-1/16 miles 

Grade 1 Just A Game $500,000 4&UP FM 1 mile (turf) 

Grade 1 Acorn $500,000 3YO F 1 mile 

Grade 1 Woody Stephens $400,000 3YO 7 furlongs 

Grade 1 Jaipur $400,000 3&UP 6 furlongs (turf) 

Grade 2 Brooklyn $400,000 4&UP 1-1/2 miles

2021 Belmont Stakes Wager Guide XBGlobal

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