3 Best Technical indicators on Earth
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by The Wall Street Daily Research Team
THE 3 BEST
TECHNICAL INDICATORS ON EARTH
“Those who cannot remember the past
are condemned to repeat it.”
This oft-quoted warning also forms the basis for technical
analysis. Only I’d tweak it to say, “Those who do remember
the past are likely to profit from it.”
THAT’S TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IN A NUTSHELL.
After all, technical analysis is based on the idea that all
the information is represented in price and volume. So by
comparing what’s happening in the market today to what’s
happened in the past, you can tell what will (most likely)
occur in the future.
The Three Best Technical Indicators on Earth
How to Start Killing the Market and Never Look Back
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In other words, while fundamental analysis involves screening
businesses’ balance sheets, earnings reports and economic conditions to
try to predict stock returns, technical analysis relies on the participants
in the market to distill all that information into meaningful data.
And by watching price and volume, you can interpret the emotions
driving the market. Some believe that technical analysis is simply about
drawing lines on a chart – and that it’s essentially the equivalent of
financial astrology.
Hogwash!
Granted, some methods have failed to produce real returns. And I agree
that not all technical indicators are worthy of your attention.
That’s why it’s important to focus only on the key indicators that have
proven successful – time after time.
Lucky for you, we’ve found the top three, best of breed, technical
indicators that you can use to maximize your profits. Here’s a brief
rundown of each…
INDICATOR #1:
MOVING AVERAGE CONVERGENCE/
DIVERGENCE (OR MACD)
The MACD indicator is a great introduction to technical analysis
because it’s based on one of the easiest, most powerful concepts:
the moving average.
Calculating and drawing a moving average line is simple. It’s just the
average price of a stock over a number of days, usually 50 or 200.
A stock trading above this line is a strong bullish indicator by itself.
The Three Best Technical Indicators on Earth
How to Start Killing the Market and Never Look Back
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But you can take a moving average to the next level by tracking when
moving averages of different lengths of time cross paths.
Take a look at the chart for Under Armour (UA) to see what I mean.
When the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving
average, it means the stock is likely going to see a big move higher.
Basically, MACD takes moving averages, fine tunes them and combines
them into a single indicator. It just takes a few more steps…
1) First, instead of a 50- or 200-day moving average, MACD uses 12 and
26 days. It also focuses specifically on the “exponential moving
average,” which means more weight (and importance) is given to the
most recent stock prices.
2) The next step is creating the “MACD line,” which is simply the
difference between the 12- and 26-day exponential moving averages
from step one.
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How to Start Killing the Market and Never Look Back
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3) Once that’s done, the “signal line” is created. That’s the nine-day
exponential moving average of the new MACD line.
If this sounds complicated, keep in mind that you don’t really need to
know how the lines are created. The important part is how they interact.
Check out the following chart of Bank of America (BAC) to see
what I mean.
There are two main things you need to watch for…
1) When the MACD line jumps above zero, it shows that the current
momentum is positive. And when it drops below zero, momentum
is negative.
2) Most important, you can identify when these shifts in trajectory are
likely to occur. It’s all about watching when the lines cross over each
other.
The Three Best Technical Indicators on Earth
How to Start Killing the Market and Never Look Back
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When the MACD line crosses above the signal line, momentum is
about to turn positive. And when the signal line jumps higher than
MACD, it’s a sign that the share price is about to dip.
The chart indicates the bullish points with green arrows and the
bearish patterns in red. Sure enough, the stock movements (mostly)
correspond with the “Buy” and “Sell” signals.
When the MACD
line crosses
above the
signal line,
momentum is
about to turn
positive. And
when the signal
line jumps
higher than
MACD, it’s a sign
that the share
price is about
to dip.
The trick is to spot the crossovers as close to the zero line as
possible. That’s where the strongest signals occur.
INDICATOR #2:
PARABOLIC SAR
Don’t let the imposing name fool you. Parabolic SAR is dead simple
to interpret.
SAR stands for “stop and reverse,” meaning that it’s designed to find
turning points in stock trends.
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How to Start Killing the Market and Never Look Back
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In short, Parabolic SAR captures momentum.
The indicator is typically drawn as dots that follow a stock chart.
When the dots are below the price, the momentum is positive, like
the dots are pushing the stock up. When the dots are above the price,
momentum is negative.
In simplest terms, when the dots switch from above the stock price to
below, that’s a clear “Buy” signal. On the flip side, when they switch from
below the price to above, it’s a “Sell.”
You’ll also notice that the dots tend to converge with the stock price right
before they switch sides. So the closer the dots get to the share price line,
the sooner the current share price direction is likely to reverse.
So not only does Parabolic SAR identify the turning point, it shows how
much time you have to invest accordingly.
Simple, right?
There’s one trick to using Parabolic SAR, however. You need to be
selective about your “Buy” signals.
You see, if a stock is trading within a narrow range, the dots will give off
multiple “Buy and “Sell” signals in rapid succession. That’s not a formula
for making money.
The Symantec (SYMC) chart on the next page shows what I mean.
When the stock traded in a tight range between June and August, there
was a flurry of signals that wouldn’t have been profitable. But between
January and March, the signal worked well.
To reconcile this, verify that the overall stock market is trending in a
similar direction, too, and not staying stagnant. Of course, you could pair
the MACD line with Parabolic SAR to double check your findings.
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How to Start Killing the Market and Never Look Back
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With a stronger
grasp of investor
sentiment about a
particular stock, you
could pick your “Buy”
and “Sell” levels
with more confidence.
INDICATOR #3:
CHAIKIN MONEY FLOW
We already know there are two sides to every stock trade
– the buyer and seller.
But wouldn’t it be nice to know what’s going on behind
the scenes? That is, whether the buyers or the sellers are
more eager to act?
With a stronger grasp of investor sentiment about a
particular stock, you could pick your “Buy” and “Sell”
levels with more confidence.
That’s what the Chaikin Money Flow tries to capture. It
indicates “buying pressure” and “selling pressure.”
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How to Start Killing the Market and Never Look Back
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The Chaikin Money Flow takes positive and negative periods for a stock,
then multiplies them by the volume of trading over that time. This
assigns greater weight to days when there was heavy volume.
Then it compares the ratio of positive pressure to negative pressure and
converts that to a value between -100 and 100 (or between -1 and 1 on
some software).
At that point, you chart it as an additional line under the stock.
When Money Flow is high, it means the stock has more buying pressure
than selling pressure – and vice versa.
Now, you may be tempted to use this as a trend indicator. So you’d buy
when there’s a lot of buying pressure.
But Money Flow actually identifies when a stock is overbought or
oversold. As a result, it shows the end of the trend (or a reversal point).
In other words, it’s more of a contrarian indicator. When the rating is
high, it means there may be too much buying pressure and the stock is
set to collapse.
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How to Start Killing the Market and Never Look Back
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On such merits, when the Money Flow passes a critical level (25 or
-25 is a good rule of thumb) and stays there for a while, it’s a sign
that a reversal is imminent.
(An indicator called the Money Flow Index is very similar to Chaikin
Money Flow, with only a slight change in the calculations. You can
interpret the signals the same way.)
Bottom line: Combining these three simple indicators can create a
powerful system for identifying when stocks are likely to rise or fall.
You don’t need a math degree. Heck, you don’t even need to
understand the formulas to use these indicators to boost your
investment profits.
You just need to look at a few charts until you can see the patterns
repeating themselves. After all, that’s the basis of technical analysis.
The chart says it all.
Good investing,
The Wall Street Daily Research Team
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How to Start Killing the Market and Never Look Back
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06252015