Fine & Country National Housing Market Update | March 2021

MARCH 2021
NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

K E Y S T A T S
E N G LA ND AN D WAL ES
£743,000 £1,114,358 10.17%
£612 £36.4bn 13,342
LATEST DATA QUARTERLY CHANGE ANNUAL CHANGE
MORTGAGE APPROVALS 98,994 11.1% 40%
RESIDENTIAL TRANSACTIONS 121,640 27.2% 6.8%
GROSS MORTGAGE LENDING £24.3 bn 16.6% 6.8%
NEW HOME STARTS (QT) 31,900 131.5% -9.2%
NEW HOME COMPLETIONS (QT) 35,260 154.6% 0.1%
2 I PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL

M A R K E T O V E R V I E W
2 0SPRINGING 1 8 - TH E YEINTO A R THACTION
AT WAS
Spring Although beckons the festive and pathways season is upon to end us, lockdown there is little restrictions seasonal have cheer been and ‘good outlined will across to all’ the
UK, evident the across roadmap the to political ‘normality’ arena. a Brexit sharp continues contrast to to a dominate year ago. the Consumer headlines confidence as all eyes is
showing await the shoots final outcome. of recovery Whatever and the the Chancellor’s conclusion, Budget there are provides sure to continued be implications support for for
those sterling seeking and the to economy. own their As own 2018 home
draws to a close, are we any closer to predicting what
we can expect in 2019?
A CONFIDENCE BOOST
Consumer confidence in the economy rose to an elevenmonth
GLIMMERS high in February, OF SEASONAL no doubt bolstered CHEERby the impact
of the swift vaccine rollout across the UK. GfK report
that Throughout consumer 2018 views sales on volumes the economy across in the general housing and market their
personal have struggled, financial thanks situation to the both backdrop improved, of lower as did buyer their
willingness demand and to low make levels major of purchases. consumer confidence. This bodes well However, for
consumer latest data
spending from the
as Bank
restrictions of England
are indicates
lifted. Despite mortgage
the
economy approvals
shrinking in October
by were
9.9% over 4% higher
2020 than
(ONS), a year
the ago,
UK looks
while
the total value of lending hit its highest monthly figure since
set to avoid its first double dip recession since the 1970s.
the surge in transactions prior to the introduction of the
additional 3% SDLT levy in March 2016. More sales took
place across the UK in October than in any month since July
MARKET 2017, while Rightmove ACTIVITY data CONTINUES
shows properties in 2018 to
date have taken an average of 61 days from the start of
Although marketing
many to being
expected sold-subject-to-contract,
activity in the housing one
market day
to
falter shorter during than the last start year of and 2021, an improvement with the Stamp on Duty the 65 deadline
days
too witnessed close to in benefit 2016. new buyers, the market continues to
show resilience. Sales volumes in January were 24.1% higher
than Despite in January the rise 2020, in the with UK an base estimated rate in the 121,640 summer, transactions
completed mortgage interest (seasonally rates adjusted); remain low. the UK highest Finance January report total
that
since at 2.23% 2007 the (HMRC). current Although average mortgage mortgage interest approvals rate were
is lower
3.7% than the lower rate than both in five December and ten 2020, years still ago, 98,994 3.14% mortgages
and 6.11%
were respectively.
approved, Adjusting
50% higher for inflation,
than in wages
January have
2020. risen
Gross
over
lending the past
was year,
the positive
highest news
monthly for household
figure since finances.
March 2016
(Bank of England). Zoopla report buyer demand in the six
weeks SENSE to AND mid-February SENSIBILITY was up 12.4% year on year, with
Rightmove seeing a 45% increase in visitors to its site in the
Sensible pricing remains crucial to achieving a sale. The
first week of February and enquiries up 18%. A lack of new
average asking price of a property fell by 1.7% in November,
buyers to the market, new seller numbers were 21% lower
the largest November fall since 2012 according to
at the start of February, continues to exert pressure on
Rightmove, while annual house price growth has moderated
prices. throughout
The average the year.
price Annual
of a house
property price
in growth
the UK across
is now
the
over UK in
£250,000 the year to
(UK September
HPI, Halifax).
was 3.5%, down from 4.6% a
year ago, according to the official UK House Price Index.
Average prices across London remain slightly lower than a
year ago, the capital currently feeling the brunt of Brexit
uncertainty.
BALANCING THE BOOKS
The Chancellor’s Budget offered a sober assessment of the
legacy Across of the the Covid-19 UK prime pandemic markets, and the despite average the price increase of property in
borrowing is down there a fraction were on few a immediate year ago. However, significant across tax changes.
many
The assets extension, 2018 until has the not end proved of September momentous. of the In the furlough
year to the
scheme end will of November support many, the the average economy price expected of gold has to fallen return
by
to its over pre-pandemic 1%, the stock level market by mid-2022, (FTSE 100) six months by 6%, while earlier the than
S&P
forecast Global in November.
Luxury Index is 5.5% lower than a year ago, despite
fine wines and classic cars boasting small positive returns.
The Many extension commentators of the Stamp report Duty evidence Holiday of in England pent-up until demand the
end of for June higher is welcomed, priced properties, as is a 0% with SDLT prospective levy on properties
vendors
up to waiting £250,000 for more until the clarity end before of September they commit 2021. to A their new
government-backed purchase.
mortgage guarantee scheme is set to
launch on 1 April across the UK. The scheme will be available
to those A CRYSTAL seeking to purchase BALL up to £600,000 and will support
purchasers who require a 95% mortgage. Unlike many schemes,
Unsurprisingly all current forecasts for 2019 are issued with
support will be available to all purchasers and not restricted
a caveat relating to a deal being brokered between the UK
to first-time buyers or new build homes.
and the EU. The Governor of the Bank of England, Mark
Carney, has reiterated his forecast that in the event of a nodeal
Brexit the economy may fall by over 8% and average
PRIME house MARKETS
prices by up to 30%. Current forecasts from the
Office for Budget Responsibility point to employment levels
The continuing average price to rise of a in prime 2019, property along with across average the earnings, UK has risen
while
to £1.1 inflation million, is up predicted 10% year to edge on year. back Price to the performance government’s in the
2.0%
prime target. market This may currently well require outpacing a gradual the general rise in market, interest with
rates,
growth although of 8.5% the in current the year view to December. is that the base While rate HMRC will rise report
to
income just from 1.5 – residential 1.75% by 2021. property tax receipts fell by 27% year
on year in 2020, 10.6% more liable sales took place priced
£1 million+. Across the Homes housing over market, £1 million as per account 2018, for many 2.3% of all sales
recorded commentators
by the Land expect
Registry the
to wider
date UK
in 2020, market
compared to outperform
to
London. An average of independent forecasts predicts price
1.8% in 2019. With the UK remaining a location of choice for
growth across the UK will be 2.2% during 2019. In
buyers from overseas, activity once travel restrictions are
comparison, those commentating on the London market
lifted is anticipated to be buoyant.
anticipate 2019 may well prove another year of falling
prices. Compound growth across the UK is anticipated to
be in the region of 11% – 14% over the next five years.
Forecasts for London vary widely, from less than 5% to over
10%. Only time will tell which trajectory is more likely to be
true.
PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL I 3

R E G I O N A L
P R E M IU M M A RK E TS : TOP 5 %
£450,000
£613,033
+7.1%
£316
£505,000
£673,630
+8.0%
£329
£366,000
£491,086
+6.7%
£247
£439,000
£587,628
+6.8%
£295
£467,000
£611,143
+7.9%
£285
£409,000
£531,419
+9.0%
£280
£734,000
£991,267
+8.1%
£478
£655,000
£903,687
+12.0%
£423
£873,000
£1,250,609
+12.8%
£508
£1,570,000
£2,532,418
+10.1%
£1,222
4 I PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL

N A T I O N A L
P R E M IU M M A RK E TS : TOP 5 %
PROPERTIES SOLD ABOVE THE
PREMIUM PRICE THRESHOLD
The premium price threshold is
the value over which the top 5%
of property sales occur. The chart
shows a rolling 12 month change
in the average price paid for
premium properties compared
to the previous 12 month.
ENGLAND & WALES
12.5%
10%
7.5%
5%
2.5%
0%
FEB
2020
MAR
2020
APR
2020
MAY
2020
JUN
2020
JUL
2020
AUG
2020
SEP
2020
OCT
2020
NOV
2020
DEC
2020
JAN
2021
Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
BY PROPERTY TYPE OVER THE
LAST 12 MONTHS, PROPERTIES
SOLD ABOVE THE PREMIUM
PRICE THRESHOLD
ENGLAND & WALES
£1,600
An individual premium price
threshold is calculated for each
property type based on sold
prices in the last 12 months. The
chart shows the average price paid
per square foot for all of these
premium properties.
£1,200
£800
£400
£1150
£704
£526 £519
£612
0
FLAT/APARTMENT TERRACED SEMI-DETACHED DETACHED ALL PROPERTY
Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL I 5

T R A N S A C T I O N S
A N D K EY P RI C E P O IN T S
ALL PROPERTIES SOLD ACROSS
THE COUNTRY
Chart shows a rolling 12 month
change in transactions compared to
the previous 12 month period.
ENGLAND & WALES All property £1m+
10%
0%
PLEASE NOTE: Due to the pandemic,
Land Registry have a huge backlog of
transactions to be registered. Caution
should be taken when viewing this chart
as figures may show an exaggerated
decline. Housing market demand is
strong, the first week in February versus
2020 saw Rightmove visits up 45%, with
18% more enquiries and the number of
purchases agreed up by 7%.
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
JAN
2020
FEB
2020
MAR
2020
APR
2020
MAY
2020
JUN
2020
JUL
2020
AUG
2020
SEP
2020
OCT
2020
NOV
2020
DEC
2020
Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
£242,658
£743,000
£1,114,358
£217,815
£750,093
£1,189,001
£187,784
£613,038
£993,911
£229,078
£585,991
£819,192
£374,780
£948,991
£1,390,301
£247,569
£742,921
£1,102,020
6 I PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL

N A T I O N A L
M A IN S TR E AM M AR K E T
ALL PROPERTIES SOLD ACROSS
THE REGION
Rolling 12 month change in
the average price paid for all
properties sold compared to the
previous 12 month period.
ENGLAND & WALES
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
FEB
2020
MAR
2020
APR
2020
MAY
2020
JUN
2020
JUL
2020
AUG
2020
SEP
2020
OCT
2020
NOV
2020
DEC
2020
JAN
2021
Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
BY PROPERTY TYPE OVER
THE LAST 12 MONTHS OF
ALL PROPERTY SALES
ENGLAND & WALES
Average price paid per square
foot for all property transactions.
£400
£300
£200
£330
£211
£243
£285
£254
£100
0
FLAT/APARTMENT TERRACED SEMI-DETACHED DETACHED ALL PROPERTY
Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL I 7

A V A I L A B I L I T Y
A N D TIM E TO SE LL
AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS
TO SELL
NATIONAL
Average number of days
from when a property is first
marketed on Rightmove to
when the estate agent marks it
as “sold subject to contract”.
100
75
50
62 62 64
67
71
76
67
61
83
88
73
62
53
50 49
52
57
65
25
0
AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR
2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020
APRILMAY
2020 2020
JUN
2020
JUL
2020
AUG SEP OCT
2020 2020 2020
NOV DEC JAN
2020 2020 2021
Source: Rightmove
PROPERTIES AVAILABLE TO
BUY PER AGENT
Average stock per agent
calculated by the average
number of properties an agent
has on Rightmove each day
across the month.
NATIONAL
50
40
30
20
10
0
AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR
2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020
APRIL MAY JUN
2020 2020 2020
JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN
2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021
Source: Rightmove
T: +44 (0)207 079 1515
E: parklane@fineandcountry.com
fineandcountry.com
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Report edited by Inform user and published on 03-03-2021.
Please note, HM Land Registry transaction figures are lower than usual due
to the impact of Covid-19. They are likely to be revised upward.
dataloft.co.uk