Fine & Country National Housing Market Update | January2021

JANUARY 2021
NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

K E Y S T A T S
E N G LA ND AN D WAL ES
£724,000 £1,092,864 9.19%
£624 £35.8bn 12,350
LATEST DATA QUARTERLY CHANGE ANNUAL CHANGE
MORTGAGE APPROVALS 104,969 52.4% 61.2%
RESIDENTIAL TRANSACTIONS 115,190 46.9% 19.3%
GROSS MORTGAGE LENDING £23.2 bn 24.8% 4.6%
NEW HOME STARTS (QT) 12,950 -52.0% -59.2%
NEW HOME COMPLETIONS (QT) 14,050 -54.4% -62.2%
2 I PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL

M A R K E T O V E R V I E W
2MOVING 0 1 8 - THINTO E YE AA R NEW TH AT YEAR
WAS
Although 2021 marks the the festive start season of the is UK’s upon journey us, there as is an little independent seasonal cheer trading and nation. ‘good will The to vaccine
all’
evident programme across is the well political underway arena. and Brexit an end continues to the pandemic to dominate is finally the headlines sight. We as enter all eyes 2021
await with a the strong final housing outcome. market Whatever following the conclusion, a remarkable there recovery are sure from to be the implications first lockdown.
for
sterling and the economy. As 2018 draws to a close, are we any closer to predicting what
we can expect in 2019?
A FRESH START
ECONOMIC RECOVERY
The UK voted to leave the EU in 2016 and officially left the
trading bloc on 31st January 2020. The vaccine rollout has
begun, the first dose of the Pfizer vaccine was given on 8th
December GLIMMERS 2020 OF and SEASONAL the first dose of CHEER the Oxford/AstraZeneca
vaccine Throughout received 2018 on sales 4th volumes January 2021. across With the housing the vaccine market rollout
under have struggled, way and a thanks Brexit to deal the agreed, backdrop 2021 of lower is looking buyer far more
optimistic despite a new lockdown.
demand and low levels of consumer confidence. However,
latest data from the Bank of England indicates mortgage
The approvals housing October market has were all but 4% recovered higher than following a year ago, the while forced
closure the total in value spring of 2020. lending Mortgage hit its highest approvals monthly are only figure down
since
-0.9% the surge (January in transactions to November prior 2020) to the compared introduction to the of the same
period additional in 2019 3% SDLT (Bank levy of England) in March and 2016. according More sales to Zoopla,
took
new place sales across agreed the UK in 2020 in October were 9% than above in any 2019. month The since remarkable
July
recovery 2017, while was Rightmove thanks to data households shows properties re-evaluating 2018 their to housing
requirements date have taken and an fuelled average by of the 61 stamp days from duty the holiday.
start of
marketing to being sold-subject-to-contract, one day
shorter than last year and an improvement on the 65 days
A STRONG END TO THE YEAR
witnessed in 2016.
2020 Despite
ended the rise
with in
a the
strong UK
housing base rate
market. in the summer,
Demand in 2020
was mortgage 40% higher interest than rates in 2019 remain and low. although UK Finance demand report has slowed
that
since at 2.23% summer, the current it remains average 33% mortgage higher than interest last December, rate is lower a
previous than the rate peak both following five and the ten general years election ago, 3.14% (Zoopla).
and 6.11%
respectively. Adjusting for inflation, wages have risen over
104,969 the past mortgages year, positive were news approved for household in November finances. 2020, the
highest since August 2007, pre-Global Financial Crisis (Bank of
England). The number of transactions continued to rise with
SENSE AND SENSIBILITY
115,190 sales recorded in November 2020, 19.3% higher than
November Sensible pricing 2019 remains (HMRC). crucial An estimated to achieving 650,000 a sale. properties
The
are average still changing asking price hands of a (Rightmove) property fell and by therefore 1.7% in November, transaction
figures the largest will continue November to fall increase since 2012 in early according 2021.
to
Rightmove, while annual house price growth has moderated
With throughout demand the outweighing year. Annual supply, house house price prices growth rose across throughout
the
2020. UK in Nationwide the year to September reported a was 7.3% 3.5%, annual down increase from in 4.6% house
a
prices year ago, in December according to 2020, the official the strongest UK House house Price price Index. growth in
six Average years. prices House across prices London ended remain the year slightly 5.3% lower above than the level
a
prevailing year ago, the in March, capital when currently the feeling pandemic the struck brunt of the Brexit UK.
uncertainty.
The UK economy has been recovering from a record slump
earlier this year when the UK faced its first lockdown.
The economy was 7.9% (ONS) smaller in October than it
Across the UK prime markets, the average price of property
had been pre-lockdown, and recovery in November and
is down a fraction on a year ago. However, across many
December is expected to have slowed as increased UK
assets 2018 has not proved momentous. In the year to the
restrictions were put in place. Now that the UK has officially
end of November the average price of gold has fallen by
left over
the EU 1%,
and the
the stock
vaccine market
programme (FTSE 100)
is by
underway, 6%, while
we
the S&P
hope Global
to see Luxury
continued Index
recovery is 5.5% lower
of the than
economy a year
throughout
ago, despite
2021. fine The wines Financial and classic Times cars Survey boasting of 90 small leading positive economists
returns.
expects Many it commentators will take least report 18 months evidence for of the pent-up UK economy
demand
to return for higher to its priced pre-pandemic properties, size
with prospective vendors
waiting for more clarity before they commit to their
purchase.
THE YEAR AHEAD
2021 will be host to a lot of housing market changes and
A CRYSTAL BALL
deadlines. The stamp duty holiday is set to finish at the end
of March 2021, the same deadline for Help to Buy changes.
A 2% surcharge for overseas purchasers will be introduced
from and 1st the April EU. and The potential Governor changes of the to Bank Capital of England, Gains Tax
Mark
are set to be introduced. These changes will no doubt
impact transaction volumes and house prices.
Unsurprisingly all current forecasts for 2019 are issued with
a caveat relating to a deal being brokered between the UK
Carney, has reiterated his forecast that in the event of a nodeal
Brexit the economy may fall by over 8% and average
house prices by up to 30%. Current forecasts from the
House Office price for forecasts Budget Responsibility for 2021 range point from to mildly employment positive
levels
to greatly continuing negative, to rise reflecting 2019, along uncertainties with average facing earnings, the
while
economy inflation and is predicted the housing to market. edge back The to Dataloft the government’s consensus
2.0%
house target. price This forecast, may well based require on the a gradual average rise from in interest five leading
rates,
commentators, although the
expects current view
0.9% is
growth that the
in base
2021. rate
The will
Office rise to
for
Budget just 1.5
Responsibility – 1.75% by
(OBR) 2021.
forecast 1,111,000 residential
transactions Across the to housing complete market, in the as year per to 2018, March many 2021, rising to
1,279,000 commentators in the year expect to March the wider 2022.
UK market to outperform
London. An average of independent forecasts predicts price
growth across the UK will be 2.2% during 2019. In
comparison, those commentating on the London market
anticipate 2019 may well prove another year of falling
prices. Compound growth across the UK is anticipated to
be in the region of 11% – 14% over the next five years.
Forecasts for London vary widely, from less than 5% to over
10%. Only time will tell which trajectory is more likely to be
true.
PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL I 3

R E G I O N A L
P R E M IU M M A RK E TS : TOP 5 %
£430,000
£590,964
+3.2%
£310
£478,000
£635,242
+1.9%
£316
£356,000
£475,632
+4.2%
£242
£421,000
£567,086
+3.5%
£291
£448,000
£584,621
+3.6%
£278
£393,000
£510,248
+6.2%
£276
£705,000
£959,243
+4.6%
£470
£620,000
£845,902
+5.1%
£397
£849,000
£1,207,616
+9.0%
£495
£1,570,000
£2,581,875
+14.0%
£1,284
4 I PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL

N A T I O N A L
P R E M IU M M A RK E TS : TOP 5 %
PROPERTIES SOLD ABOVE THE
PREMIUM PRICE THRESHOLD
The premium price threshold is
the value over which the top 5%
of property sales occur. The chart
shows a rolling 12 month change
in the average price paid for
premium properties compared
to the previous 12 month.
ENGLAND & WALES
10%
7.5%
5%
2.5%
0%
-2.5%
DEC
2019
JAN
2020
FEB
2020
MAR
2020
APR
2020
MAY
2020
JUN
2020
JUL
2020
AUG
2020
SEP
2020
OCT
2020
NOV
2020
Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
BY PROPERTY TYPE OVER THE
LAST 12 MONTHS, PROPERTIES
SOLD ABOVE THE PREMIUM
PRICE THRESHOLD
ENGLAND & WALES
£1,600
An individual premium price
threshold is calculated for each
property type based on sold
prices in the last 12 months. The
chart shows the average price paid
per square foot for all of these
premium properties.
£1,200
£800
£400
£1222
£690
£516 £509
£624
0
FLAT/APARTMENT TERRACED SEMI-DETACHED DETACHED ALL PROPERTY
Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL I 5

T R A N S A C T I O N S
A N D K EY P RI C E P O IN T S
ALL PROPERTIES SOLD ACROSS
THE COUNTRY
Chart shows a rolling 12 month
change in transactions compared
to the previous 12 month period
for all properties and those
priced at £1m or over.
ENGLAND & WALES All property £1m+
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
NOV
2019
DEC
2019
JAN
2020
FEB
2020
MAR
2020
APR
2020
MAY
2020
JUN
2020
JUL
2020
AUG
2020
SEP
2020
OCT
2020
Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
£237,073
£724,000
£1,092,864
£216,962
£755,817
£1,247,850
£184,395
£597,573
£965,403
£223,894
£566,085
£791,147
£365,159
£923,376
£1,351,299
£241,277
£717,839
£1,066,984
6 I PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL

N A T I O N A L
M A IN S TR E AM M AR K E T
ALL PROPERTIES SOLD ACROSS
THE REGION
Rolling 12 month change in
the average price paid for all
properties sold compared to the
previous 12 month period.
ENGLAND & WALES
3%
2.5%
2%
1.5%
1%
0.5%
0%
DEC
2019
JAN
2020
FEB
2020
MAR
2020
APR
2020
MAY
2020
JUN
2020
JUL
2020
AUG
2020
SEP
2020
OCT
2020
NOV
2020
Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
BY PROPERTY TYPE OVER
THE LAST 12 MONTHS OF
ALL PROPERTY SALES
ENGLAND & WALES
Average price paid per square
foot for all property transactions.
£400
£300
£200
£322
£204
£234
£277
£245
£100
0
FLAT/APARTMENT TERRACED SEMI-DETACHED DETACHED ALL PROPERTY
Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL I 7

A V A I L A B I L I T Y
A N D TIM E TO SE LL
AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS
TO SELL
NATIONAL
Average number of days
from when a property is first
marketed on Rightmove to
when the estate agent marks it
as “sold subject to contract”.
100
75
50
62 62 64
67
71
76
67
61
83
88
73
62
53
50 49
52
25
0
AUG
2019
SEP
2019
OCT
2019
NOV
2019
DEC
2019
JAN
2020
FEB
2020
MAR
2020
APRIL MAY
2020 2020
JUN
2020
JUL
2020
AUG
2020
SEP
2020
OCT
2020
NOV
2020
Source: Rightmove
PROPERTIES AVAILABLE TO
BUY PER AGENT
Average stock per agent
calculated by the average
number of properties an agent
has on Rightmove each day
across the month.
NATIONAL
50
40
30
20
10
0
AUG
2019
SEP
2019
OCT
2019
NOV
2019
DEC
2019
JAN
2020
FEB
2020
MAR
2020
APRIL MAY
2020 2020
JUN
2020
JUL
2020
AUG
2020
SEP
2020
OCT
2020
NOV
2020
Source: Rightmove
T: +44 (0)207 079 1515
E: parklane@fineandcountry.com
fineandcountry.com
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Report edited by Inform user and published on 05-01-2021.
Please note, HM Land Registry transaction figures are lower than usual due
to the impact of Covid-19. They are likely to be revised upward.
dataloft.co.uk