Fine & Country | National Housing Market Update | December 2020

DECEMBER 2020
NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

K E Y S T A T S
E N G LA ND AN D WAL ES
£712,000 £1,078,520 7.85%
£616 £36.3bn 12,396
LATEST DATA QUARTERLY CHANGE ANNUAL CHANGE
MORTGAGE APPROVALS 97,532 135.0% 51.1%
RESIDENTIAL TRANSACTIONS 105,630 55.7% 8.1%
GROSS MORTGAGE LENDING £21.5 bn 24.5% -0.2%
NEW HOME STARTS (QT) 12,950 -52.0% -59.2%
NEW HOME COMPLETIONS (QT) 14,050 -54.4% -62.2%
2 I PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL

M A R K E T O V E R V I E W
2STAY 0 1 8 - SAFE TH E THIS YE A R CHRISTMAS
TH AT WAS
Although 2020 is drawing the festive to a season close, an is upon unprecedented us, there is little year seasonal in history cheer and and one ‘good in which
will to all’
evident the housing across market the political has yet arena. again Brexit proved continues its resilience. to dominate House price the headlines growth has
all eyes
await strengthened the final outcome. over the course Whatever of the year conclusion, across both there the are mainstream sure to be implications and prime
for
sterling markets, and with the a economy. record number As 2018 of draws sales in to progress a close, are for we this any time closer of year.
to predicting what
we can expect in 2019?
AN UNPRECEDENTED YEAR
Rewind a year and the country was waiting with bated breath
to GLIMMERS see who would OF occupy SEASONAL Number CHEER 10 for Christmas, after the
third election in just five years. Europe was top of the agenda.
Throughout 2018 sales volumes across the housing market
A year of Covid-dominated headlines has seen Brexit slip down
have struggled, thanks to the backdrop of lower buyer
the priority list, although with final ties set to be cut from
demand and low levels of consumer confidence. However,
1st January, it’s back on the agenda.
latest data from the Bank of England indicates mortgage
approvals in October were 4% higher than a year ago, while
The the total
impact value
of the of
Covid-19 lending hit
pandemic its highest
has resulted monthly
in figure
a year since
like no
other, the surge
and one in transactions
which has impacted prior to
our the lives introduction and how we of use theour
homes additional significantly. 3% SDLT ‘Garden’ levy in has March proved 2016. the most More popular sales took search
term place across across the the housing UK in market October throughout than in any 2020; month ‘detached’, since ‘rural’
July
and 2017, ‘secluded’ while Rightmove also make it data into shows Zoopla’s properties top 10 list. in With 2018 24% toof
the date workforce have taken currently an average working of from 61 days home from (ONS), the and start many
of
predicting marketing that to being a full-time sold-subject-to-contract, return to the office is unlikely, one day additional
space shorter continues than last to year be a priority, and an with improvement larger homes on seeing the 65 the days most
significant witnessed rise in in 2016. interest.
Despite the rise in the UK base rate in the summer,
mortgage interest rates remain low. UK Finance report that
ACTIVE at 2.23% the AUTUMN
current average mortgage interest rate is lower
than the rate both five and ten years ago, 3.14% and 6.11%
Activity across the housing market this autumn has set new
respectively. Adjusting for inflation, wages have risen over
records. The number of sales agreed was up 50% in October
the past year, positive news for household finances.
with properties selling (sold STC) in just 49 days, 15 days
faster than a year ago, according to Rightmove. It is estimated
over SENSE 105,000 AND transactions SENSIBILITY completed in October, the highest
monthly Sensible figure pricing since remains March crucial 2016 to (prior achieving to the a sale. introduction The of
the average 3% SDLT asking surcharge), price of a property and up 8.1% fell by year-on-year 1.7% in November, (HMRC).
Mortgage the largest approvals November remain fall since robust, 2012 with according gross mortgage
to
lending Rightmove, at its while highest annual level house since price the housing growth market has moderated entered
lockdown throughout in the March year. (Bank Annual of England). house price Despite growth the across availability
the
of UK fewer in the mortgage year to September products across was 3.5%, the marketplace, down from 4.6% at 2.12%
a
the year average ago, according mortgage to rate the official is historically UK House low, Price and demand Index. levels
remain Average high. prices The across NAEA London report remain the number slightly of lower prospective
than a
buyers year ago, per the branch capital reached currently an feeling average the of brunt 451, the of Brexit highest ever
recorded uncertainty. for the month of October. The Dataloft Demand
Index and Rightmove both reported an uptick in demand
during the first week of Lockdown 2 across England.
Across the UK prime markets, the average price of property
is down a fraction on a year ago. However, across many
SOBER SPENDING
assets 2018 has not proved momentous. In the year to the
Against end of the November backdrop the of a average resilient price housing of gold market, has fallen the
by
Chancellor’s over 1%, the
spending stock market
review on (FTSE
25th 100)
November by 6%, while
made
the S&P
sober Global
reading. Luxury
Covid-19 Index is
has 5.5%
caused lower
the than
economy a year ago,
to shrink
despite
fine wines and classic cars boasting small positive returns.
by 11.3% this year, with public borrowing at record highs and
Many commentators report evidence of pent-up demand
unemployment anticipated to reach 2.6 million (7.5%) by
for higher priced properties, with prospective vendors
the middle of 2021 – the highest since the Global Financial
waiting for more clarity before they commit to their
Crisis. Continued government financial support and the
purchase.
extension of the furlough scheme to March will help many
and the introduction of a successful vaccine programme will
undoubtedly A CRYSTAL aid economic BALL recovery. As it stands, the Office
for Unsurprisingly
Budget Responsibility all current
forecast forecasts
the for
economy 2019 are
will issued
grow with
by
5.5% a caveat over 2021 relating and to 6.6% a deal in 2022, being the brokered country between set to return
the UK
to pre-pandemic the EU. The levels Governor by Quarter of the 4 Bank in 2022. of England, Inflation Mark and
interest Carney, rates has are reiterated forecast his to forecast remain low.
that in the event of a nodeal
Brexit the economy may fall by over 8% and average
house prices by up to 30%. Current forecasts from the
WHAT Office for WILL Budget THE Responsibility NEW YEAR point to BRING?
employment levels
continuing to rise in 2019, along with average earnings, while
Rightmove inflation asserts is predicted there to are edge currently back to 650,000 the government’s more home
2.0%
purchases target. This in the may pipeline well require than a a year gradual ago, rise as buyers in interest seek
rates,
to make although the the most current of property view is taxation that the savings base rate before
will rise to
the just March 1.5 – 31st 1.75% deadline. by 2021. Forthcoming changes to capital
gains tax and for overseas purchasers in the form of a 2%
Across the housing market, as per 2018, many
surcharge from April are also impacting activity across the
commentators expect the wider UK market to outperform
capital. London.
The unanswerable An average of
question independent
at present forecasts
is what predicts
will
price
happen growth
to across
the market the UK
post will
March, be 2.2%
with during
many 2019.
calling In
for an
extension comparison, to the those stamp commentating duty holiday on due the to London the number market of
sales anticipate caught in 2019 the conveyancing may well prove process. another A year consensus of falling of
independent prices. Compound forecasts growth suggests across price the growth UK is will anticipated soften over
to
the be course in the of region 2021, of with 11% stronger – 14% capital over the growth next five expected
years.
to return Forecasts in 2022.
for London vary widely, from less than 5% to over
10%. Only time will tell which trajectory is more likely to be
true.
PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL I 3

R E G I O N A L
P R E M IU M M A RK E TS : TOP 5 %
£425,000
£580,054
+0.9%
£309
£475,000
£628,351
+0.7%
£316
£352,000
£469,858
+4.0%
£240
£416,000
£562,046
+3.6%
£284
£441,000
£578,427
+2.7%
£277
£391,000
£506,446
+5.5%
£273
£700,000
£948,404
+3.8%
£469
£608,000
£840,700
+5.6%
£403
£831,000
£1,180,220
+7.2%
£492
£1,550,000
£2,547,002
+12.7%
£1,275
4 I PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL

N A T I O N A L
P R E M IU M M A RK E TS : TOP 5 %
PROPERTIES SOLD ABOVE THE
PREMIUM PRICE THRESHOLD
The premium price threshold is
the value over which the top 5%
of property sales occur. The chart
shows a rolling 12 month change
in the average price paid for
premium properties compared
to the previous 12 month.
ENGLAND & WALES
10%
7.5%
5%
2.5%
0%
-2.5%
NOV
2019
DEC
2019
JAN
2020
FEB
2020
MAR
2020
APR
2020
MAY
2020
JUN
2020
JUL
2020
AUG
2020
SEP
2020
OCT
2020
Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
BY PROPERTY TYPE OVER THE
LAST 12 MONTHS, PROPERTIES
SOLD ABOVE THE PREMIUM
PRICE THRESHOLD
ENGLAND & WALES
£1,600
An individual premium price
threshold is calculated for each
property type based on sold
prices in the last 12 months. The
chart shows the average price paid
per square foot for all of these
premium properties.
£1,200
£800
£400
£1213
£677
£509 £504
£616
0
FLAT/APARTMENT TERRACED SEMI-DETACHED DETACHED ALL PROPERTY
Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL I 5

T R A N S A C T I O N S
A N D K EY P RI C E P O IN T S
ALL PROPERTIES SOLD ACROSS
THE COUNTRY
Chart shows a rolling 12 month
change in transactions compared
to the previous 12 month period
for all properties and those
priced at £1m or over.
ENGLAND & WALES All property £1m+
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
OCT
2019
NOV
2019
DEC
2019
JAN
2020
FEB
2020
MAR
2020
APR
2020
MAY
2020
JUN
2020
JUL
2020
AUG
2020
SEP
2020
Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
£234,572
£712,000
£1,078,520
£214,177
£750,180
£1,246,769
£182,874
£582,778
£944,828
£221,861
£558,057
£774,661
£361,192
£903,362
£1,321,090
£238,869
£703,109
£1,045,136
6 I PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL

N A T I O N A L
M A IN S TR E AM M AR K E T
ALL PROPERTIES SOLD ACROSS
THE REGION
Rolling 12 month change in
the average price paid for all
properties sold compared to the
previous 12 month period.
ENGLAND & WALES
2.5%
2%
1.5%
1%
0.5%
0%
NOV
2019
DEC
2019
JAN
2020
FEB
2020
MAR
2020
APR
2020
MAY
2020
JUN
2020
JUL
2020
AUG
2020
SEP
2020
OCT
2020
Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
BY PROPERTY TYPE OVER
THE LAST 12 MONTHS OF
ALL PROPERTY SALES
ENGLAND & WALES
Average price paid per square
foot for all property transactions.
£400
£300
£200
£323
£204
£235
£277
£246
£100
0
FLAT/APARTMENT TERRACED SEMI-DETACHED DETACHED ALL PROPERTY
Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL I 7

A V A I L A B I L I T Y
A N D TIM E TO SE LL
AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS
TO SELL
NATIONAL
Average number of days
from when a property is first
marketed on Rightmove to
when the estate agent marks it
as “sold subject to contract”.
100
75
50
62 62 64
67
71
76
67
61
83
88
73
62
53
50 49
25
0
AUG
2019
SEP
2019
OCT
2019
NOV
2019
DEC
2019
JAN
2020
FEB
2020
MAR
2020
APRIL
2020
MAY
2020
JUN
2020
JUL
2020
AUG
2020
SEP
2020
OCT
2020
Source: Rightmove
PROPERTIES AVAILABLE TO
BUY PER AGENT
Average stock per agent
calculated by the average
number of properties an agent
has on Rightmove each day
across the month.
NATIONAL
50
40
30
20
10
0
AUG
2019
SEP
2019
OCT
2019
NOV
2019
DEC
2019
JAN
2020
FEB
2020
MAR
2020
APRIL
2020
MAY
2020
JUN
2020
JUL
2020
AUG
2020
SEP
2020
OCT
2020
Source: Rightmove
T: +44 (0)207 079 1515
E: parklane@fineandcountry.com
fineandcountry.com
Disclaimer: This report is produced for general information only. Whilst every effort has been made to
ensure the accuracy of this publication, Dataloft Ltd accepts no liability for any loss or damage of any
nature arising from its use or from any changes made to Dataloft content by Inform users. Reproduction
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Report edited by Inform user and published on 01-12-2020.
Please note, HM Land Registry transaction figures since March are lower than usual
due to the impact of Covid-19. They are likely to be revised upward.
dataloft.co.uk