UNHCR's ELIGIBILITY GUIDELINES FOR ASSESSING THE ...
UNHCR's ELIGIBILITY GUIDELINES FOR ASSESSING THE ...
UNHCR's ELIGIBILITY GUIDELINES FOR ASSESSING THE ...
Create successful ePaper yourself
Turn your PDF publications into a flip-book with our unique Google optimized e-Paper software.
military commander in Iraq, General David Petraeus, said that Iraq was “doomed to<br />
continuing violence and civil strife” if the security plan failed. 129<br />
However, questions remain as to the political will and ability of the Government to move<br />
against the militia, which, through its social services network, is deeply embedded in the<br />
fabric of society and is considered by many the only protection against the Sunni-led<br />
insurgency. 130 A National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), prepared by the US National<br />
Intelligence Council in January 2007 131 and titled Prospects for Iraq’s Stability:<br />
A Challenging Road Ahead, questioned the Iraqi Government’s ability to effectively move<br />
against those militias that are linked to the ruling parties in Iraq in the coming 12 to 18<br />
months. 132 Also, there are concerns that the advance publicity given to the new security<br />
plan provided militiamen with the opportunity to leave Baghdad or to keep a low profile,<br />
only to re-emerge after the operation is completed. 133 There have also been speculations<br />
that Muqtada Al-Sadr used the security operation to have his movement purged of<br />
undesirable elements. 134<br />
3. Criminal Groups<br />
Criminal groups are also capitalizing on Iraq’s instability. It is increasingly difficult to<br />
distinguish common criminals from insurgents and militias, as all engage in kidnappings<br />
and extra-judicial killings and illegal activities such as trafficking in weapons, drugs and oil<br />
to fund their activities. 135 According to the Iraq Study Group, “some criminal gangs<br />
129 See Reuters, New US general warns Iraq doomed if crackdown fails, 10 February 2007,<br />
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L10750830.htm; AP, Stakes very high, says new US commander<br />
in Iraq, 11 February 2007, http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/new-us-commander-in-iraq-says-stakes-arevery-high/2007/02/11/1171128800952.html?s_cid=rss_smh.<br />
130 Senanayake, Iraq: Cracking Down On Al-Sadr No Easy Task, see above footnote 125; Tavernise, Shi’ite<br />
Fighters Are Arrested, Iraq Says, see above footnote 125; Beehner, see above footnote 124.<br />
131 The National Intelligence Council is a “center of strategic thinking within the US Government, reporting<br />
to the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) and providing the President and senior policymakers with<br />
analyses of foreign policy issues that have been reviewed and coordinated throughout the Intelligence<br />
Community”; see http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_home.html. The key judgements of the report can be found at:<br />
http://dni.gov/press_releases/20070202_release.pdf.<br />
132 National Intelligence Council, Prospects for Iraq’s Stability: A Challenging Road Ahead, January 2007,<br />
p. 7, http://dni.gov/press_releases/20070202_release.pdf.<br />
133 Reuters Alertnet, Ross Colvin, Sadr orders militia heads out of Iraq – president, 16 February 2007,<br />
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L15740660.htm; Senanayake, Iraq: Cracking Down On Al-Sadr<br />
No Easy Task, see above footnote 125; Leila Fadel and Zaineb Obeid, Mahdi Army lowers its profile,<br />
anticipating arrival of U.S. troops, McClatchy Newspapers, 13 January 2007, http://www.realcities.com/mld/<br />
krwashington/16454939.htm.<br />
134 Senanayake, Iraq: Cracking Down On Al-Sadr No Easy Task, see above footnote 125; Tavernise, Shi’ite<br />
Fighters Are Arrested, Iraq Says, see above footnote 125.<br />
135 UNAMI HRO, December 2006 Human Rights Report, p. 9, see above footnote 10. See also:<br />
US Department of Defense, p. 21, see above footnote 73; John F. Burns, Kirk Semple, U.S. Finds Iraq<br />
Insurgency Has Funds to Sustain Itself, The New York Times, 26 November 2006,<br />
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/26/world/middleeast/26insurgency.html?ex=1322197200&en=1bd1f805c3<br />
0e2ae2&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss; Oliver Poole, Shia killers rake in £500,000 a day from crime,<br />
says US, The Telegraph, 22 September 2006, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/<br />
2006/09/22/wiraq22.xml.<br />
44