UNHCR's ELIGIBILITY GUIDELINES FOR ASSESSING THE ...

military commander in Iraq, General David Petraeus, said that Iraq was “doomed to
continuing violence and civil strife” if the security plan failed. 129
However, questions remain as to the political will and ability of the Government to move
against the militia, which, through its social services network, is deeply embedded in the
fabric of society and is considered by many the only protection against the Sunni-led
insurgency. 130 A National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), prepared by the US National
Intelligence Council in January 2007 131 and titled Prospects for Iraq’s Stability:
A Challenging Road Ahead, questioned the Iraqi Government’s ability to effectively move
against those militias that are linked to the ruling parties in Iraq in the coming 12 to 18
months. 132 Also, there are concerns that the advance publicity given to the new security
plan provided militiamen with the opportunity to leave Baghdad or to keep a low profile,
only to re-emerge after the operation is completed. 133 There have also been speculations
that Muqtada Al-Sadr used the security operation to have his movement purged of
undesirable elements. 134
3. Criminal Groups
Criminal groups are also capitalizing on Iraq’s instability. It is increasingly difficult to
distinguish common criminals from insurgents and militias, as all engage in kidnappings
and extra-judicial killings and illegal activities such as trafficking in weapons, drugs and oil
to fund their activities. 135 According to the Iraq Study Group, “some criminal gangs
129 See Reuters, New US general warns Iraq doomed if crackdown fails, 10 February 2007,
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L10750830.htm; AP, Stakes very high, says new US commander
in Iraq, 11 February 2007, http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/new-us-commander-in-iraq-says-stakes-arevery-high/2007/02/11/1171128800952.html?s_cid=rss_smh.
130 Senanayake, Iraq: Cracking Down On Al-Sadr No Easy Task, see above footnote 125; Tavernise, Shi’ite
Fighters Are Arrested, Iraq Says, see above footnote 125; Beehner, see above footnote 124.
131 The National Intelligence Council is a “center of strategic thinking within the US Government, reporting
to the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) and providing the President and senior policymakers with
analyses of foreign policy issues that have been reviewed and coordinated throughout the Intelligence
Community”; see http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_home.html. The key judgements of the report can be found at:
http://dni.gov/press_releases/20070202_release.pdf.
132 National Intelligence Council, Prospects for Iraq’s Stability: A Challenging Road Ahead, January 2007,
p. 7, http://dni.gov/press_releases/20070202_release.pdf.
133 Reuters Alertnet, Ross Colvin, Sadr orders militia heads out of Iraq – president, 16 February 2007,
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L15740660.htm; Senanayake, Iraq: Cracking Down On Al-Sadr
No Easy Task, see above footnote 125; Leila Fadel and Zaineb Obeid, Mahdi Army lowers its profile,
anticipating arrival of U.S. troops, McClatchy Newspapers, 13 January 2007, http://www.realcities.com/mld/
krwashington/16454939.htm.
134 Senanayake, Iraq: Cracking Down On Al-Sadr No Easy Task, see above footnote 125; Tavernise, Shi’ite
Fighters Are Arrested, Iraq Says, see above footnote 125.
135 UNAMI HRO, December 2006 Human Rights Report, p. 9, see above footnote 10. See also:
US Department of Defense, p. 21, see above footnote 73; John F. Burns, Kirk Semple, U.S. Finds Iraq
Insurgency Has Funds to Sustain Itself, The New York Times, 26 November 2006,
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/26/world/middleeast/26insurgency.html?ex=1322197200&en=1bd1f805c3
0e2ae2&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss; Oliver Poole, Shia killers rake in £500,000 a day from crime,
says US, The Telegraph, 22 September 2006, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/
2006/09/22/wiraq22.xml.
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