Style: June 16, 2020

Uncertain
Certainty
World
an
It’s June and our company is back and busy,
equally challenged and excited despite the
unpredictable post-lockdown world.
I can share that there’s a strong rhythm to our
office routines, which includes the ongoing
requirements for sanitization, contact tracing
and social distancing, and a sense of optimism,
a must-have in all business environments, is
palpable. Where it gets interesting is that there’s
also endless market rhetoric, swirling around
everything, some of it valuable, some of it barely
relevant, but the overwhelming narrative is based
around ‘certainty’ and ‘uncertainty’.
What’s going to happen this month or the next?
What about spring or even the rest of the year?
Who will enter or exit the market and what can
people expect, be they buyers, owners, investors
or agents, and I won’t forget the opportunists who
are also gathering?
Before I attempt to answer these questions, I’d like
to look at the power of both elements: certainty
and uncertainty.
Certainty, beloved and sought-after, is the
confidence we have in our beliefs.
It can profoundly shape behaviour and will often
provide the catalyst for converting thoughts into
action. Studies indicate that people who are
certain are more likely to express their opinions
and beliefs – and this can be regardless of
accuracy! A certain international figure comes to
mind here, but I won’t take that any further.
Although certainty is subjective, it can be measured
empirically, and factors affecting its acceptance
should include accuracy and relevance.
Some of the strongest themes currently being
promoted with certainty in real estate include: the
potential for a mixed winter (traditionally a slower
time anyway); a five- to ten-percent reduction in
property values (likely); and a strong re-emergence
of activity from first-home buyers and expats (a
‘yes’ from me to both of these).
The other indication that certainty provides
comfort can be seen in owners preferring
unconditional cash offers over conditional offers,
even if they’re for a larger dollar amount. This
trend is always noticeable in times of change, with
one owner recently telling me about the value of
knowing he could move on versus the prospect of
an unknown period of waiting.
Uncertainty, on the other hand, involves
unpredictability. It’s often heard that markets
– for both property and shares – fall in the face
of uncertainty and, from experience, they do.
But that very unpredictability can open-up new
opportunities and I’m sure we will see that as the
year progresses.
Personally, I’m in the camp that acknowledges
there is no 100% right or wrong. Instead, there
are numerous choices and from this a variety of
possible results. I’m choosing hard work in the
right places as a measurement of activity, good
people as a framework for what can be achieved,
and the absolute rock-solid belief that the one and
only thing I can be truly certain about is change!
Good luck finding certainty in uncertain
times. Both certainty and uncertainty have
their merits, and if credible expert advice
based on 26 years of extraordinary real estate
would help you navigate the two, contact me.
Lynette McFadden
Business Owner Harcourts gold
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