Barry Cunlife - The Scythians

landscapes with people
two severe winters before normal conditions return. At such a periodicity it is possible
for communities to cope and to ride out the worst, but if the interval shortens
or the number of harsh winters multiplies then massive social disruption can follow.
Recent events in Mongolia provide a frightening illustration of the magnitude of
the damage that can be done. Mongolian herders always fear the dzud—an unusually
dry summer followed by a severe winter. One is bad enough, but between 1999 and
2002 there were three in succession as the result of which eleven million animals
died. A decade later the dzud hit again, in two successive years, 2009 and 2010. In
some regions temperatures plummeted to −45 o C and stayed at that level for fifty consecutive
days. This time eight million animals died, with 9,000 families—20 per cent
of the rural population—losing all their livestock. In the face of catastrophes of this
magnitude people leave the land, giving up their traditional livelihood, and migrate
to the city. Only five years later, in 2015–16, the next dzud hit, killing one million animals
and the following winter was equally as severe. In these conditions, especially if
the period between the dzuds decreases as the consequence of global climate change,
it is difficult to see how the traditional nomadic lifestyle of Mongolia can continue.
Mongolia is an extreme case because its steppe uplands are particularly cold and dry
but it illustrates how prone steppe communities are to even minor fluctuations in the
climate.
Sudden changes in weather conditions were nothing new in Mongolia. A recent
dendrochronological study, using stunted Siberian pine found in the Khangai Mountains,
allowed climatic fluctuations to be charted in some detail during the late
twelfth and early thirteenth century ad. By counting tree rings back from the present
day precise dates can be arrived at for the more ancient growth and by measuring the
width of the individual ring, representing a year’s growth, the growing conditions
can be assessed. What the study showed was that there was a long period of intense
drought accompanied by exceptional cold from ad 1180 to 1190, followed by a phase
of heavy rainfall and mild temperatures from ad 1222 to 1225. This change corresponds
with major social and political events. In the late twelfth century the Mongols
were split between feuding factions but in 1206 they were unified by Chinggis Khan
into a formidable fighting force which, from about 1210, expanded exponentially,
conquering large areas of northern China and Central Asia. While it is possible that
there was no direct cause and effect linking the environmental change and historical
events, a plausible scenario would be to suggest that the social fragmentation of the
last decades of the twelfth century were exaggerated by the intense period of dry,
cold weather. With the rapid amelioration of the climate about 1211 grassland flourished,
increasing the biomass available for horses and other livestock. This would
have made life much easier and could have provided the conditions for a charismatic
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