The Political Dynamics of Justice Reform in The U.S.

disproportionately ground up in the current system. Reform is backed by a strangebedfellows
alliance of conservative and progressive interest groups and by many bigcity
law enforcement officials. And a new poll released Thursday by the Pew Charitable
Trusts finds strong public support for reducing or even eliminating mandatory minimum
sentences and letting prisoners earn time off their sentences by participating in
programs like job training and drug counseling.
Supporters of reform are mobilizing a last-ditch assault on Capitol Hill, hoping to
convince lawmakers that reform is a matter of public safety and fiscal prudence. They
are pinning some hopes on Ryan, on endorsements from police chiefs and prosecutors,
and on the fact that everybody is still actively negotiating. “The clock has not run out,”
said one congressional aide. Gloomier advocates say that even if Ryan delivers in the
House, it would take a near-miracle to get anything bold through the Senate.
Some reform proponents believe the best they can expect is that Congress will grant a
very narrow reprieve for one group of crack cocaine offenders. Back in 2010, Congress
reduced sentences for inmates who were punished under a law that treated crack
cocaine far more severely than powder cocaine. (The most conspicuous difference
between the two forms of the drug is that powder is more popular with white users,
while crack users tend to be black.) An estimated 5,800 people convicted before 2010
remain imprisoned. Congress could make these prisoners retroactively eligible for a
judicial review of their sentences.
In the absence of legislation, President Obama will surely come under pressure to use
his powers of executive clemency aggressively in his final days. Thousands of federal
prisoners have applied to have their sentences commuted, but the cases are backed
up in a processing pipeline.
If reform dies on Capitol Hill, the autopsy is likely to identify several causes of death.
• There are few profiles in courage in an election year. Witness Sen. Ted Cruz, the
Texas Republican who as recently as 2014 told a press conference that
mandatory minimum sentences currently in force have condemned “far too many
young men, and in particular far too many African-American young men” to lifedestroying
sentences for relatively minor drug offenses. Touting his home state’s
record of reduced incarceration and falling crime rates, he declared, “We need to
recognize that young people make mistakes, and we should not live in a world of
Les Miserables.” Now campaigning for the White House as the meanest man in
the field, Cruz has swiveled, denouncing a bill that is considerably less generous
to offenders than the one he supported back then. “We know to an absolute
certainty that an unfortunately high percentage of those offenders will go and
commit subsequent crimes,” he says now. “And every one of us who votes to
release violent criminals from prison prior to the expiration of their sentence can
fully expect to be held accountable by our constituents.” Cruz may be the least
popular man in the Senate, but many a lawmaker can imagine hearing the same
alarmist rhetoric coming from the lips (and campaign ads) of a primary opponent.
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