The Negotiation Society - Issue 4

ISSUE 4
The Negotiation Society
THE FUTURE ISSUE
HUMAN VS MACHINE
A battle for supremacy
US ELECTION SPECIAL
The candidates’ negotiation styles
A NOVEL APPROACH
The negotiation journey of a book
THE FUTURE
OF HUMANKIND
What role could negotiation play?
A MAN
WITH A PLAN
The new CEO of The Gap
Partnership lays out his
vision for the future

INSIDE THIS ISSUE
07 10
Human Vs
Machine
How close are we to
a future negotiating
with robots?
A Man With
A Plan
A revealing portrait
of new CEO Graham
Botwright as he lays out
his vision for the future.
WELCOME FROM STEVE
18 22
US Election
Special
Expert analysis of the
negotiation styles of
some of the main
Democratic candidates.
26 30
The Traveling
Negotiator
An ancient African
negotiation practice
that’s still very much
alive today.
A Novel
Approach
The multiple negotiations
that take a book from
manuscript to store.
The Negotiation
Society’s
New Home
The all-new digital
platform designed to
be a one-stop shop for
negotiators everywhere.
Welcome to The Negotiation Society –
or welcome back if you have already enjoyed one
or more of the previous three editions. In this issue
we have taken the future as our theme, and bring
you contributions from experts within and outside
our business, all looking ahead to what may lie in
store for negotiators. Prepare to get prepared!
Talking of the future, at TGP we’ve been busy
reorganizing our own team to reflect the needs of
our business with our 2025 vision in sight. I am
pleased to announce that Graham Botwright took
up the post of CEO in March. Graham has 17 years’
experience operating at every level at TGP, most
recently as COO, and has already started to make
a positive impression with a focus on consulting,
excellence and communication. His passion for
clients, negotiation and doing the right things
well make him the right leader for our business.
He introduces himself and some of his current
thinking on page 10.
As Chairman I look forward to advising
Graham and the executive team through the
continued challenges of growing a global business
and promoting excellence in negotiation around
the world.
Over to you Graham…
Steve Gates
Executive Chairman, The Gap Partnership
2

THE NEGOTIATION SOCIETY
OUR CONTRIBUTORS
John Clements
After starting his career as an
engineer, John amassed over
two decades’ of experience in
management consulting across
multiple sectors. His track record
in negotiation planning and
execution, commercial strategy,
and business change delivery
now serves him well at
The Gap Partnership where
he is a management consultant.
Alisha Bhagat
As a futurist and senior strategist
at Forum for the Future, Alisha’s
work focuses on the creative use
of futures tools to impact long-term
positive change, particularly
around social justice and equality.
She utilizes foresight methods
such as systems mapping, scenario
planning, and speculative futures
to engage with stakeholders on
strategic visions and the concrete
actions needed to achieve them.
Koffi Kouakou
Koffi is a director with the
South Africa Node of the
Millennium Project, an
affiliate of the Millennium
Project in Washington, D.C.
that publishes the authoritative
annual publication State of the
Future. He is also an associate
with African Futures where he
specializes in strategy facilitation,
scenario planning, foresight studies
and media strategy in Africa.
Kelly Harborne Sib Law Katy Regan
As UK Head of Practice
(FMCG) at The Gap
Partnership, Kelly has spent
over 12 years partnering with
clients in retail and FMCG.
She specializes in negotiation,
facilitation, and coaching and
works across both consulting
and capability development to
support businesses in realizing
their commercial objectives.
Sib has been a negotiation
consultant for two decades.
His multi-sector expertise in
strategy execution has contributed
to numerous Wall Street-focused
organizational change initiatives.
Sib also ran a media company
which received numerous
awards and was an official
honoree of the Webby Awards.
He currently leads innovation
for TGP in the Americas.
Katy spent her childhood in
the English seaside town of
Morecambe. She studied
English and French at Leeds
University where she became
features editor of the student
newspaper before moving to
London. Katy wrote for magazines
and newspapers before becoming
commissioning editor at Marie
Claire magazine. Little Big Love
is her fifth and newest novel.
3

MY HEAD
YOLANDE GOH
VP OF LEGAL AT TECH GIANT EQUINIX, YOLANDE
HAS BEEN RECOGNIZED IN THE GC POWERLIST
FOR ASIA-PACIFIC, FT ASIA PACIFIC INNOVATIVE
LAWYERS, AND ASIA IN-HOUSE 25.
How did you end up working in the
tech industry?
Working in private practice, I witnessed
the boom and bust of e-commerce
and asked myself where the world
was heading. Having studied overseas
and spent a lot of time on the phone
calling home (there wasn’t Skype
in those days!), I felt telecoms was
the key to Singapore’s development.
When an opportunity presented itself,
I grabbed it. By the early 2000s there
had been rapid and exciting growth in
the technology sector, so when Equinix
came calling, the opportunity was too
good to refuse.
What do you think are the most
exciting developments in tech for
the future?
Artificial intelligence, cloud computing,
big data, blockchain, self-driving
vehicles, virtual reality and augmented
reality, and space travel. I am also
excited by global interconnectivity.
And the biggest challenges?
Advancements in tech have a great
potential to improve our lives, but
the opposite is also true. Risks
include loss of privacy, cyberbullying,
permanent digital connection to the
workplace (meaning damage to our
social lives), jobs replaced by AI or
machines, overreliance on technology,
and environmental pollution from our
rampant use of gadgets. We also
need to ensure the benefits of tech
apply to society as a whole and not
just privileged segments.
How important is the skill of
negotiation in your career?
Negotiation skills are the sine qua
non of any lawyer’s success. They are
critical in both informal day-to-day
interactions and formal transactions
such as negotiating contracts.
How important is the skill of
negotiation in your life outside
of work?
I negotiate with my husband on our
split of responsibilities, and with
our nine year-old twins to get them
to complete their homework before
turning to their multiple home
entertainment options!
What has been your greatest
negotiation achievement?
My negotiation ability has helped me
play a role in Equinix’s meteoric global
expansion. Of the numerous deal
negotiations, three stand out as
complex and tough but also rewarding.
The acquisition of Metronode business
in Australia that made Equinix the
market leader there; the purchase of
Bit-isle, listed on the Tokyo Stock
Exchange and valued at US$280
million; and the US$230.5 million
transaction for Hong Kong-based
data center provider Asia Tone,
which significantly increased
Equinix’s footprint and reach
in these markets.
Any negotiation disasters?
The Asia Tone negotiations were
protracted and exhausting. Even with
an MBA and advanced negotiation
training, a combination of inexperience,
no clear understanding of our Best
Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement
(BATNA), and working with new team
members contributed to disagreements
and nights of lost sleep. We got there
but the journey was painful!
What’s the most important lesson
that you’ve learned as a negotiator?
Preparation is essential. The negotiator
must take the time to understand
the factual matrix and business or
strategic objectives, discuss and agree
strategy with internal stakeholders,
and if necessary research potential
legal intricacies of the issues.
Without wishing to sound clichéd,
the maxim rings true: if you fail to
prepare, you are preparing to fail.
What life lessons have you
learned along the way?
Grit, determination, good leadership
and great team work are vital
ingredients for success.
4

THE NEGOTIATION SOCIETY
DEAR FUTURE, I’M READY
Kelly Harborne explores how negotiators can ensure
their skillset remains robust and relevant in the face
of rapid change and an increasingly unknown future.
I
write this in April 2019 as
the UK stares into the chasm
that is Brexit: a fruitful
opportunity or unparalleled disaster, depending on
your perspective. Either way, no one is sure what the next six
months holds, let alone a year. The one certainty we have is
that the UK and its trading partners face profound change.
For those with Brexit-fatigue, it doesn’t take many turns
of the newspaper page or clicks on the mouse to find another
story about an unknown future: a technological advance,
a merger or acquisition, a shift in consumer appetite or an
ecological disaster.
These stories have multiple implications, issues and
learnings. But what of their commercial negotiation
angle? What, specifically, can negotiators learn from
them? How do you gain a competitive advantage when
the game is always changing? Fundamentally, how do
you ensure your negotiation capability is future-proofed?
These are big questions for one person to tackle.
So I gathered the thoughts of colleagues and clients. I asked
them, “How do you think you’ll be negotiating differently
in five years’ time?” This generated some insightful thoughtstarters
I used as a springboard for my own analysis.
For a glimpse into the future, read on.
“I anticipate more email
negotiation. My buyers
are increasingly working
from home or abroad and
will rarely agree to meet
in person. As the younger
generation moves into
buying roles, this will
only increase.”
CARLY HARRIS, NATIONAL ACCOUNTS
EXECUTIVE BIDVEST 3663
KH A usually chatty negotiation counterparty reverting to email may not be good
news – that much is obvious. But negotiators hide behind email for a myriad of
reasons. The important thing to understand is “why?” Are they time-strapped?
Disinterested in you, or the deal? Do they want to appear disinterested? Is there
a great underlying relationship that means negotiating day-to-day by email is just,
well, easy? Or, are they uncomfortable about what they’re proposing and hiding
their lack of conviction behind the screen? The important point is that you and
your teams understand the difference and choose the response accordingly.
And if email is the negotiation medium, ask yourself: are your emails fit for
purpose? Do you spend the appropriate amount of time constructing the perfect
prose? Take as much care crafting your email negotiation as you would preparing
for a face-to-face negotiation. Only the medium is different. The negotiation is
of equal importance.
“In 5 years’ time, we will
include some of the newest
values of society.”
DIANE JEANBLANC, CLIENT MANAGER,
THE GAP PARTNERSHIP
KH One trend that’s here to stay is the
drive to build better business practices
that enhance rather than degrade
the world in which we live. CSR has
become tradeable, a source of leverage,
a risk to be shared; and with that
has come a range of new or different
negotiations. There’s no doubt that our
evolving consciousness will also impact
how we interact with one another,
and in turn on how we negotiate.
The Socially Responsible Negotiator?
Now, there’s a thought.
So, back to the future. This isn’t
the time for crystal balls, but for
clear-sighted analysis. If you want to
negotiate effectively, here are three
future facing principles I am confident
have longevity:
1. Power will remain critical in every
negotiation. But expect it to shift
as access to information shifts.
2. True value is driven from
collaboration and creativity.
There’s no faking it.
3. Those that will win out are those
that see change as an opportunity
not a threat. Develop the ability to
learn and change.
5

“Algorithms start the process
unsupervised – humans
finish it off. The increased
pace of decision-making
means contracts that are
currently awarded annually
could be awarded monthly.”
CHRIS ATKINS, GLOBAL HEAD OF
CONSULTING, THE GAP PARTNERSHIP
“We may see more
automation in simpler,
less complex deals, with
the person still making the
ultimate decision.”
PYOTR SVIRIDOV, HEAD OF RUSSIA,
THE GAP PARTNERSHIP
KH Algorithm-based buying was
responsible for a third of all stock trades
made in the US and European Union
as early as 2006. But its application
has evolved and spread. Made famous
by Amazon – at least in the consumer
goods sector – this technology is now
impacting the way we negotiate by
changing the power at play.
The relationship with Amazon is an
interesting gauge. Some of my clients
have a great relationship, plenty of face
time, sharing insight and collaborating.
Others have no human contact at all.
But is the face time all that it seems?
One client described how he and his
vendor manager work together to
figure out how the algorithm worked.
A heartwarming tale to illustrate
that technology really does bring
people together? Or a sign that those
algorithms mean the buyer’s aspirations
and drivers are becoming obsolete?
Whichever is the case, the buyer who is
also a skilled negotiator recognizes the
ambiguity and builds in contingencies
for both scenarios.
Frequency of negotiations is another
offshoot of the tech revolution. Deal
and decision making are happening at a
higher rate than ever, which speaks to a
broader trend: big set piece negotiations
remain important, but are becoming
superseded or complemented by a range
of smaller, more frequent negotiations
throughout the year. Smart negotiators
ask themselves two questions: “Are we
set up to maximize the outcomes
of each of these discussions?” and,
“What is the net impact on my short
and long-term commercial goals?”
“With digitalization and the
use of blockchain, the cost
of everything will become
more transparent. The
importance of being creative
in discovering and building
total value during the
negotiation together with the
other party will become even
more critical."
GREGORY CHU, CONSULTANT,
THE GAP PARTNERSHIP
KH Some predict that negotiation will become more collaborative, and perhaps,
over time, this greater transparency will mean that there’s no point focusing on
price. Instead, innovation, collaboration and differentiation will be our only focus.
Some clients tell me this is already the case.
But there are those who swear with equal conviction that negotiation will
be more competitive in the future. Across Europe, the ever-changing range
of buying alliances demonstrates that the consumer market is consolidating.
Retailers across the world are looking to the EBITDA of their multinational
suppliers which in many cases looks healthier than theirs. The consumer has
access to more information and is no longer tethered to one retailer. It’s no
wonder that retail and consumer discussions have become more competitive
in response to this environment.
The futureproof negotiator must be able to flex between these two realities,
using both the techniques of competitive, distributive deal-making, and those
of creative, collaborative negotiation.
A FINAL THOUGHT AROUND THE CONCEPT OF AGILITY.
An organization’s ability to learn and adapt will differentiate
those that prosper and flourish from those destined for the
same fate as dial-up internet, the landline and the delivery
of handwritten mail – hailed as revolutionary in their time
but replaced soon enough.
The same is true for the negotiator. Learn and adapt,
and you will prosper and flourish. TNS
6

THE NEGOTIATION SOCIETY
AUTOMATION:
THE END OF HUMAN NEGOTIATION?
As robotics and AI become increasingly sophisticated, John
Clements asks whether negotiating with a machine will become
more commonplace than negotiating with a human being.
Last month, a client asked me to lead a
negotiation on their behalf. This in itself
is not unusual; my consulting work often
involves negotiation by proxy. I agreed
to go to the office of my client’s counterparty to
negotiate the commercial aspects of a contract.
I duly arrived at their lobby and was met by
someone who I assumed I would be negotiating
against. They took me up several floors within
their building, showed me into a meeting room,
invited me to sit down at a computer and then
asked me to follow the instructions on the screen.
It soon transpired that I was about to undertake
this negotiation against a computer. I am familiar
with negotiations being changed at the last minute
– a common tactic – but this was something
completely new. The person who showed me
to the room then left and I was presented with
a proposal by the computer, which then asked
me to respond. As my mind conjured up the
image of HAL in 2001: A Space Odyssey, my
heart started to race. I was now on my own
against a computer...
7

AUTOMATED NEGOTIATION IN PRACTICE
FACEBOOK
In 2017 Wired magazine
reported that the Facebook
Artificial Intelligence Research
(FAIR) group, in collaboration
with Georgia Institute of
Technology, conducted an
experiment that forced two bots
– applications that run automated
tasks – to learn how to negotiate
with one another by presenting
them with a bargaining task. They
were shown the same number
of objects but were programmed
to want different things. What
is interesting is that a paper
published by FAIR revealed that
the negotiating bots learned to
lie. They learned to lie because
they found a strategy that worked.
The bots feigned interest in a
valueless issue, so that they could
later “compromise” by conceding
it. FAIR is currently exploring
whether the experiment can be
extended into other situations.
AMAZON
According to Bloomberg,
several six-figure earning
Amazon executives were
reassigned or left their jobs in
April 2018 because where it
made sense, the company had
chosen to replace them with
artificial intelligence. The process
started a few years back under
what was called the “hands off
the wheel” initiative. Algorithms
took over tedious tasks like
forecasting demand, ordering
inventory and negotiating prices.
Soon the machines (via the
algorithms) learned patterns
and became increasingly
accurate in undertaking these
tasks. Eventually humans had
to justify any system override
(i.e. stopping the algorithms)
and finally became redundant.
Amazon has since devised a
new way of doing business
that removed “middlemen”
and reduced the risk of buying
inventory. People were no longer
needed to negotiate for businesses
to come on board to Amazon,
as most major brands wanted to
be featured on Amazon which is
where most shoppers were.
UBER
An article by Procurious – an
online business network for
procurement and supply chain
professionals – pointed out that
Uber’s surge pricing algorithm is
a particularly effective, automated
negotiator. The algorithm
understands the counterparty and
their motivations (e.g. passengers
are more likely to book when
the battery in their smartphone
is low). It is unemotional and it
does the job that is intrinsic to all
negotiators; it gets more for its
stakeholders. Procurious believes
that automation is going to
become a bigger and bigger part
of negotiation with negotiators
finding innovative applications
for data science to equip them
with information which leads
to better negotiation outcomes.
So, if Uber is accessing the
battery meter on your smartphone
today, tomorrow’s risks could be
significantly more far-reaching.
Okay, I’ll come clean. This scenario
is entirely fabricated. But could this
situation be the future of negotiations,
or is it just science fiction? I remember
watching Star Trek when I was younger
and thinking that talking to someone
else remotely via a handheld device
or talking to a computer and getting
a verbal response was the stuff of
fantasy. We now have mobile phones,
FaceTime and Alexa. Therefore,
shouldn’t those of us involved in
negotiations need to consider whether
at some point all negotiations will be
undertaken by computers? Because if
negotiation is like chess, whereby we
need to think multiple moves ahead,
then why couldn’t computers carry out
negotiations? After all, IBM invented a
computer (Deep Blue) a long time ago
which went on to defeat some of the
best chess players in the world.
So, what is the current situation
with “automated negotiation” and what
could the future look like? Could it
spell the end of human negotiators?
THE BUSINESS
PERSPECTIVE
The Gap Partnership runs courses
in negotiation (for people!) for some of
the biggest multinational corporations
in the world, as well as a large number
of small to midsize organizations.
Among other things, these courses
focus on the behavioral element of
negotiations i.e. something that is –
currently – only attributable to humans.
This would suggest that negotiations
undertaken by humans are not going
to end anytime soon. However, there
are major organizations who are not
only looking into how to use automated
negotiation but have – to a certain
extent – implemented it already.
What we can see is that some
major organizations are taking very
seriously the concept of negotiation
being automated and have in some
cases implemented it to arguably great
success. There are probably thousands
of other organizations who are doing
similar investigations. However, it
would appear that at this stage this
success is confined to relatively noncomplex
negotiations e.g. only a few
variables such as price, and in a business
to consumer (B2C) context in which
one party needs to make concessions,
for example suppliers to Amazon or
passengers to Uber.
8

THE NEGOTIATION SOCIETY
THE ACADEMIC
PERSPECTIVE
In a paper presented at the Fifth
International Biennial on Negotiation,
Shaw, Noël and Spicer (2014)
concluded that despite automated
negotiation technology having been
available for the best part of the last
fifteen years, it was difficult to find
information on household name
companies employing them successfully.
I believe this still may be the case in
2019. Moreover, it would seem that
the impact of automated negotiation
on real-world business processes
has remained largely unfulfilled in a
business to business (B2B) context.
There have been numerous academic
studies comparing the performance
of human negotiators with automated
negotiation agents. It is fair to say that
the outcomes of these studies have
been inconclusive. The researchers
compared human and automated B2B
negotiations, with the main differences
being that the former use natural
language, include messages that are
ambiguous or irrelevant to the object of
the negotiation, and rely on subjective
evaluations and partial decisions,
whereas the latter use machine
language, focus exclusively on the
variables at hand and make objective
evaluations and impartial decisions.
Most B2B negotiations include
multiple variables and require both
sides to make considered concessions.
Given this, it is unsurprising that
automated negotiation has not been
more widely adopted in corporations.
So, while it is technically possible
to introduce automated negotiation,
and notwithstanding the business
examples previously mentioned,
there doesn’t seem to be as much
real-world deployment as there
could be, and certainly not much
evidence of automation being used
in complex negotiations.
THE END OF HUMAN
NEGOTIATORS
So, to revisit the question asked at
the beginning of this article, will we
see the end of human negotiators?
Effective human negotiators
demonstrate ten negotiation traits as
identified by The Gap Partnership
which, currently at least, robots cannot
demonstrate. These ten traits are nerve,
self-discipline, tenacity, assertiveness,
instinct, caution, curiosity, numerical
reasoning, creativity and humility. (In
the case of numerical reasoning, clearly
computers can undertake very complex
calculations. The question is whether
they can make decisions based on whatif
scenarios, using intuition to identify
the optimal opportunity.)
The concept of these traits is
supported by academic research. Erik
Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee
at the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology (MIT) demonstrated that
fears that all tasks or jobs in the future
will be undertaken by robots is probably
a half-truth. MIT conclude that there
are still many jobs in which humans
perform better than machines, and
these are grouped into three categories:
creative endeavors, social interactions
and physical dexterity and mobility.
Within the social interaction category
(where negotiation sits), they conclude
that robots do not have the kinds of
emotional intelligence that humans
have and that motivated people who
are sensitive to the needs of others
can make great negotiators.
CONCLUSION
“Effective human negotiators
demonstrate ten negotiation
traits as identified by The
Gap Partnership which,
currently at least, robots
cannot demonstrate.
THE FUTURE +50 YEARS?
9
10
8
11
Partnership/
joint problem
solving
Win win
7
Relationship
building
Concession
trading
12
6
The development of artificial
intelligence and machine language
may ultimately allow automated
negotiation agents to acquire the traits
of a negotiator, but it is probably a long
way off being widely adopted in major
corporations. Using the Clockface as
an analogy below, it would appear that
the current level
of application
of automated
negotiation
would be for
negotiations on its
right-hand side.
The extent to
which automated
negotiation will
extend into
the Clockface’s
left-hand side
and by when
will clearly depend on developments in
artificial intelligence, machine learning
and a recent concept called deep
learning which has allowed artificial
intelligence to boom. So, if fifty years
ago Captain Kirk foretold the advent
of mobile phones and verbal interaction
with computers, who knows where
negotiation will end up in the next
fifty years? TNS
Bartering
Dealing
1
Haggling/
bidding
Hard
bargaining
5
2
4
3
THE PRESENT
9

As The Gap Partnership’s
new CEO, Graham
Botwright is a man on
a mission. He talked to
Alistair White about his
vision for the future of
the business, and how his
personal philosophy on
life has evolved in a
surprising direction.
WITH
A PLAN
10

THE NEGOTIATION SOCIETY
Think back fifteen years. What sort of person
were you? Were you different to how you
are now? Did you have different ambitions,
different opinions, different values? Even if
you answered in the affirmative, I am actually
pretty certain you have not changed radically in
that time. But I am equally sure that you have
evolved. Events and experiences will have shaped
you, changed your perspectives, and perhaps
even shifted the course of your life.
Fifteen years ago, I was being interviewed
by a chap called Graham Botwright for a job
as a consultant at The Gap Partnership, a small
negotiation consultancy with just six employees
based out of a small office in the market town
of Chesham, UK.
My overriding impression of Graham during
that interview and the subsequent early months
of my TGP career can be summed up in one
word – “big”. Graham is a big guy – 6 feet 3
inches, or 1.9 meters for the other 90% of the
world’s population. He has big ambitions, big
visions, a big appetite for life and all it has to
offer, a healthy self-confidence, a big brain and
a big, big heart.
Scroll forward a decade and a half and that
same Graham Botwright is about to take up his
new position as CEO of that same The Gap
Partnership. Except that it is now a global business
with 250 employees and an annual turnover 20
times its 2004 revenues.
“We’d like you to interview Graham Botwright
for the next issue of The Negotiation Society
magazine,” said Emma, the editor. “You know, new
CEO, vision for the future, that sort of thing. You
have known him a long time. Find out what drives
him, what makes him tick, get under his skin.”
That’s how I end up sitting in Graham’s office
at a glass table – which has miraculously made it
here from the little office in Chesham – with a
smorgasbord of shared history, success – and yes,
the occasional failure – celebrations, Christmas
parties and friendship metaphorically spread out
between us like a picnic of reminiscence. I wonder
who will be the first of us to dip into the buffet.
Graham initiates the conversation by revealing
that he spent Christmas in Cape Town – more
about South Africa later – and he confesses
that he spent much of his time, “sitting on a sun
lounger, painting a mental picture of what TGP
should look like in 2025 and asking myself what,
as an incumbent CEO, do I stand for?”
Blimey Graham, I think to myself, that’s a
bit deep for an opener isn’t it? Couldn’t we have
talked about the weather for five minutes?
Never mind, let’s get on with it. “So, what
do you stand for Graham?”
“He has big ambitions, big
visions, a big appetite for life
and all it has to offer, a healthy
self-confidence, a big brain
and a big, big heart.
“There are certain values that I like to think
underpin what I believe in business and how I
behave. Do you remember when we joined
The Gap Partnership?” Ah, I think to myself,
Graham is diving into the memory buffet first.
“We were an entrepreneurial bunch, working with
and for each other, kindred spirits taking on the
world. We looked out for each other, everyone
was everyone else’s deputy, and if something
needed doing, we did it, without regard to whose
“job” it was. There wasn’t a set of written rules.
If things have to be written down as rules, then
they aren’t values. Values are more powerful than
rules because they are implicit and they define the
way we behave.
“We are bigger now and we are not just seven
people in a small office, but I really want to retain
and foster the core values that define who we are
as The Gap Partnership. The desire to be the best
we can be, constantly seeking to innovate and
grow, the passion we have for negotiation, the
implicit trust we have in each other, and the sense
that we are one global team, working with and for
each other.”
I am intrigued by Graham’s differentiation
between rules and values. I know that Graham’s
father is a retired police officer, having risen to
a senior position in the London Metropolitan
11

Police Service. I ask Graham whether his father,
who made a career out of enforcing “the rules”,
would have appreciated the distinction.
“Absolutely he would. Of course his job
was about enforcing the law and investigating
criminals, but he would be the first to say the
values of loyalty, teamwork, trust and devotion to
a common cause were always the things that made
for a good team of detectives.”
So, how does he feel about taking on the role
of CEO? Surely he’s pleased?
“Naturally I’m pleased, but that is not the
main thing I feel. My first sensation is one of
excitement about the future, about where we can
take the business. We have a team of around 250
immensely talented people and, if we get things
right, there is no limit to what we can achieve.
But that sense of excitement is immediately
followed by a huge awareness of responsibility.
People will look to me for leadership and, if we
don’t get it right, there will be only one person to
blame. I am sure I will get used to it but that sense
of responsibility is quite daunting.”
What? The “up-and-at-'em, conquer the world
single-handedly by tomorrow lunchtime” Graham
Botwright – nervous, scared?
“Definitely not scared, I don’t scare easily.
But nervous? Sure, a little bit. In fact, I think
I would be more worried if I wasn’t nervous.
It is more about the very humbling, sobering
realization of what comes with the job. Up until
now there has always been someone above me
who takes the final decision and now that person
is me. But I know I have a great executive team
and broader leadership group around me and
that gives me huge confidence. We have some
very robust debates but they usually lead to good
decisions – I wouldn’t want to surround myself
with people who agree with me all the time.”
Graham has a reputation in our business for
being ambitious, not purely personally but for
the business as a whole, and he is renowned
for coming up with big visions for the future
and seeking to inspire others to buy into them.
Does this newfound humility, this sense of
responsibility, mean that he will become less
of a risk-taker?
“Ha! I hope not. I suppose that is inevitable in
some ways, but I have a slightly different attitude
to risk these days. For the last four years I have
been playing backgammon in a league in London.
The game has taught me a number of things.
It has given me a very healthy fear of loss, but
it has also taught me when and how to take
calculated risks. In backgammon when you are
losing, you take more risk, and when you are
ahead you take less risk. You don’t need to take
risk when you are in the ascendancy. The key
12

THE NEGOTIATION SOCIETY
“Graham has a reputation
in our business for being
ambitious, not purely
personally but for the
business as a whole.
business learning for me is that to grow, you need
to take measured risks, but foolish risks can be
catastrophic. Knowing when to take a risk and
when not to is critical. I won’t be frightened
of taking a couple of well-calculated risks.
We have a declared ambition to “Lead the world
of negotiation”, and that is a big ambition to
fulfil.” A smile plays across his lips. “We will have
to be bold and I look forward to that.”
His phone rings on his desk and Graham
stands up and walks over to divert the call. I notice
a cycling helmet on the window ledge. “Did you
cycle to work, Graham?”
“Yes, I try to cycle every morning and I do a
couple of longer rides at the weekend. I am in
training for the Cape Epic which I hope to ride
in March 2020. It’s eight days riding and 16,000
metres of climbing so I need to make sure I am
in the best shape I can be.”
BUSINESS LEADER
PROFILE
GRAHAM BOTWRIGHT
BORN London, 1968
PARENTS Richard, police officer
and Margaret, maths teacher
EDUCATION BSc Psychology from
University of Dundee, Post Grad
Diploma in HRM from Kingston
Business school
SPOUSE Carmel, Learning and
Development Consultant
RESIDENCE Buckinghamshire, UK
NICKNAME GB
CAREER HISTORY Harrods, Wickes,
Kingfisher, Arthur Andersen
PERSONAL PHILOSOPHY One life, live it!
Graham’s connections with South Africa run
deep. He has been married to Carmel, a native
of Cape Town, for 20 years and they travel there
three or four times a year. Although England is
still home, the pair of them have plans to spend
more time in South Africa once Graham decides
to hang up his negotiating boots. But wait a
minute, I am just working out the magnitude
of what he has told me. Eight days? And 16,000
metres of climb? That is a serious bike ride.
Will he be ready?
“I hope so. Last year I took part in a ride across
Tankwa Karoo National Park which was about a
Graham riding at
the Wines2Whales
three day mountain
biking event in
South Africa
13

third of the distance and climb so I kind of know what
I am letting myself in for.”
And how was that?
“I won’t pretend I found it anything other than tough,”
he says. I am grateful for that because if he had said it had
been a breeze, I just wouldn’t have believed him. “The other
guys on the ride were all seriously fit, triathletes, Ironman
veterans. I was by far the weakest rider.”
Aha! It’s taken 15 years but Botwright has finally
voluntarily admitted that he is the weakest at something.
This is too good an opportunity to miss; time to have a bit
of fun at Graham’s expense. So how did that feel, Graham?
How did it feel to be a mere mortal just like the rest of us?
If he knows I am teasing, his body language doesn’t
betray it. He leans across the table and his eyes burn bright
as he recalls the memory. “It would have been pointless to
pretend otherwise. All of them were clearly fitter, stronger
and quicker than I was.
But the thing is, it wasn’t
a competition and nobody
treated it like one. It was a
challenge that we took on
as a group and there was an
unspoken commitment by
all of us, to all of us, to make
sure that we completed the
challenge as a group.
A shared value, if you like.
In fact, even although I was
the weakest link in the team,
the generosity of spirit of the
other guys, the metaphorical
and sometimes physical hand
in the small of my back,
made me stronger. There
were parts of the ride that
I could never have done on
my own, particularly a 2km
steep climb on day three,
but with the support of the
others and by placing my
trust completely in them,
I discovered levels of strength
and resilience that I didn’t know I had. It was a pretty intense
experience – not just physically but emotionally as well...”
Silence. I glance across the table at Graham and the
look on his face and the tone of his voice tell me this is not
the moment for any of the banter that so often punctuates
our conversations. A pause. To add a TGP word –
an appropriate pause.
“What does that teach you about yourself?” I ask,
seriously. “The importance of humility,” comes the reply.
“Asking for and accepting help is not a sign of weakness, it is
a strength. Nobody can be expected to have all the answers.
If you really want to accomplish something amazing, don’t
be too proud to seek out the help of others. Confronting a
challenge as a team, a solid unit with shared vision, allows
you to achieve so much more than you can do on your own.
I think deep down I have always known that, but I think I
have got better at asking for and accepting help.”
Our time is nearly up. The soon-to-be CEO has another
diary commitment to honor. I decide to lighten the mood
a little towards the end with a series of rapid-fire questions
about Graham’s preferences. His answers come immediately.
South Africa or England? “England.”
Wine or beer? “Wine.”
Golf or rugby? “Rugby.”
Thinking or doing? “Doing.”
Captain of a gallant losing team or reserve player in a
winning squad?
He hesitates. There is still some of the old Botwright in
there, the desire to lead from the front, to be the top dog. And
then he says, with a rueful smile, “Reserve in a winning squad.”
I can almost hear the sound of him gritting his teeth as he
gives his answer. But let’s be generous and give him the benefit
of the doubt. Maybe his response is sincere, a sign of maturity,
a sign that he is growing into the role that awaits him.
I reflect on our conversation before I go back to my
day job. I said earlier that Graham is a big guy in many
senses of the word. He is still a big guy – big ambitions,
big visions, big appetites, big heart and now he is taking
on big responsibility. But I think back over our conversation
and realize that, apart from being a big character, there is
something else to Graham. Depth. During our conversation,
I have sensed humility, thoughtfulness, accountability and
self-awareness that temper the burning energy, enthusiasm
and occasional impetuosity of old. That has come with
work and life experience. Or maybe it was there all the
time and I never noticed it? Nah, who am I kidding,
he’s just grown up a bit.
Let me have the last – heartfelt – words:
Good luck Graham. TNS
14

THE NEGOTIATION SOCIETY
HOW I LEARNED TO
STOP WORRYING AND
LOVE TECHNOLOGY
The savvy negotiator uses
technology to support their
negotiations. Scott Chepow
explains how.
Every day, technology speeds up the way
we work, interact with others and see
the world. Whether it has a positive or
negative influence will depend on your outlook.
I recently watched my son speedily complete his
Latin homework in Google Translate instead of
spending the time and thought process doing
it himself. He was delighted; I wasn’t so sure.
(And perhaps it can be argued both ways – did
he know his conjugated verbs already and the
googlebot freed up his time to practice the piano?)
This ambiguity around the effect of modern
technology is also at play when we look at its
impact on the way we negotiate. One example
is information and the power this can confer to
either party. Before the internet, information
asymmetry existed to the point that often one
party knew more than the other when heading
into a negotiation. It wasn’t uncommon for a
small supplier to hold a perceived advantage
in the balance of power due to the tremendous
amount of information they could access about
their larger counterparty. Well, things have
definitely evolved. Information asymmetry has
been reduced to the point that buyers can now
break down the ingredient mix of goods and
services to approximate the cost of the offering.
Vice versa, much of the information about buying
organizations is known publicly, regardless of
whether or not they are publicly traded. These
developments, powered by technology, have
moved the buyer-seller power dynamic towards
parity – but only if both parties take full advantage
of the information sources available.
A technology that has become all-pervasive
over the last three decades is email, and it has
had a particular impact on the way we interact in
our negotiations. Email provides something of a
hiding place for the negotiator, making it easier
to open extreme and hiding any discomfort felt
at the words in the message. We may feel able to
hit send on something that we would never say
in a face-to-face situation. But of course, this isn’t
the whole picture. Have you ever thought deeply
about the words that your counterparty has sent
you? Sure, you lose the visualization of nonverbal
communication in email, but discomfort may still
be displayed in the soft language of the written
word. As an example, I was asked by a client for
my thoughts on an email they had received from
their counterparty that read: “When your new
terms go into effect here, how will this change be
implemented?”. My thoughts? They just accepted
your terms – move on to creating value elsewhere.
If email masks nonverbal communication,
video conferencing technologies such as Skype,
FaceTime and TelePresence can provide
something of an insight in this area. You may not
see fidgety hands or tapping feet, but you will see
facial expressions. You may be thinking to yourself:
“I never turn on my camera during video calls and
neither do they.” Do you want them to? If you’re
me, you do. Try applying the law of reciprocity to
video, especially in a small group. Turn on your
camera. More often than not, they’ll turn theirs on
as well. An example of this in reverse: I had a very
early morning overseas Skype call recently and,
after pumping myself full of coffee, turned on
my laptop to find everyone had their camera
on. I ran upstairs, threw on my dress shirt, and
turned on my camera…just to reciprocate.
Technology is absolutely having an impact
on negotiation – but that’s not necessarily a
bad thing. There are ways to utilize technology
effectively and to your advantage. But as with all
aspects of negotiation, it takes conscious effort,
awareness and practice to do so. TNS
15

THE COMPLETE
SKILLED NEGOTIATOR
SAVES THE WORLD
A N E G O T I A T O R ’ S M A N I F E S T O
Gordon Hall makes an impassioned case
for bringing a mature outlook and collaborative
negotiation skills to the world’s thorniest issues.
W
ow – that’s quite a title!
You may be forgiven for
wondering how on earth
I plan to live up to such a grandiose
statement. Well, hear me out. I have
a passionate and long held belief
that negotiators have not only a
responsibility to the personal wellbeing
and success of themselves and their
stakeholders, but also in shaping the
future of the human race.
Allow me to present my case.
It could be argued that humankind
today is in one of the best places it
has ever been throughout our long
evolution. Over millennia we have
endured hunger and famine, fought
brutal wars, and battled diseases
and plagues. In 2019 these three big
challenges to human evolution are,
relatively speaking, largely under
control. Of course, sadly there are
still significant pockets of famine,
war and disease in the world today,
and I don’t for a second mean to
belittle this desperate and ongoing
human suffering. But, in comparison
to our history, right now is a pretty
good time to be alive.
While we have matured, as is evident
from the general reduction in famine,
war and plague, I question whether we
have actually grown up. This concept
of “growing up” is, I believe, key to our
future – and by growing up I mean
acting less childishly, not allowing
ourselves to be pulled into petty
16

THE NEGOTIATION SOCIETY
arguments and conflicts, and operating
in an adult-to-adult way.
In light of this, let me pose a
question which moves us closer to the
nub of my argument. Have negotiators,
specifically, grown up? And to be clear
– by “negotiators” I don’t just mean
in business, I am also referring to our
political leaders who of course have a
vital role to play in our future. Are we/
they maturing and acting less childishly
by looking at bigger opportunities
and working together, rather than
focusing on differences? Or are some
still taking the more high-spirited,
aggressive and competitive approach
often associated with the overconfident,
yet still immature, 21-year-old – an
over-confidence that leads to value
destruction rather than value creation?
A small caveat at this juncture:
I must beware of sweeping
generalizations – as we ourselves teach
at The Gap Partnership, there is no
right or wrong within negotiation.
However, if we were to think of
maturity and growing up as negotiators,
what issues should we consider?
I would suggest these are very similar
to those we consider when transitioning
into adulthood. Burying our ego; not
getting pulled into petty arguments
that you are never going to win; giving
the other party satisfaction and making
them feel respected; understanding
what is important to the other party;
helping the other party understand
what is important to us; and of course,
listening. If we do these things, we have
a good chance of being able to pool our
collective knowledge and collaborate
enough to work towards a negotiated
solution. The alternative to this level
of maturity is petty, childish squabbles
that result in entrenchment in our own
point of view and a reduced chance
of progress.
So, how are we doing in 2019?
Are we appreciating the opportunity
that grown up negotiation can give
us to work together, avoid wars and
famine, and stop the destruction of
our planet and ultimately ourselves?
These opportunities are about as
immense as you can get. I would
argue that as fellow negotiators, albeit
in the commercial world, we have a
responsibility to grow up and spread
the gospel for collaborative negotiation,
when it is appropriate of course.
The wider world of media and
politics has a pivotal role to play
here. Our global media encourages
competitive argument. A sensible,
mature, worked through discussion
does not sell news. Competition on
the other hand is exciting, it sells,
it’s interesting. So, journalists enjoy
sparking debate. But the noise and
entrenchment that is broadcast can
mean that issues don’t move forward.
Likewise, our political landscape
is mired in a historically combative
system: two or more competing sides
continuously arguing about how and
why they are better than the other,
with nobody ever changing their
mind, perhaps because if they do
it is seized on as a sign of weakness.
The very layout of the UK parliament
is combative, with two lines of
“Are we appreciating the
opportunity that grown up
negotiation can give us to
work together, avoid wars
and famine, and stop the
destruction of our planet
and ultimately ourselves?
opposing groups two sword widths
apart, set in permanent competition
with each other.
And it’s in the UK that we have a
very topical example of this adversarial
system at work – at least at the time of
writing, although I can’t imagine it will
resolve itself in the near future. I refer
of course to the Brexit negotiations.
Observers from all sides of the debate
are frustrated by the lack of progress
being made, with everyone vociferously
arguing that their opinion is the right
one. This is a fine example in which the
negotiators involved could choose to
accept their differences of opinion and
work on finding a solution, rather than
constantly locking horns by focusing on
the problem. Because make no mistake,
skilled collaborative negotiators are
able to do just that – find solutions
from problems.
Acres of opinion and analysis will
be written about the Brexit negotiations
in the years ahead, but as an example
of the need to negotiate collaboratively
for our future wellbeing I can think
of no better one, in which we witness
competitors jousting across a political
divide rather than focusing on
joint objectives.
Let’s look at another power struggle
taking place on the world stage – the
proposal to build a wall on the US-
Mexico border. Pledged by Donald
Trump as a way of stopping illegal
immigration into the US, this has
generated intense argument and
conflict. One side‘s position is that it
would be a waste of money as well as
a human rights issue. The other side
point to an absolute necessity to protect
American borders. At its core however,
there is common ground – both sides
agree on the need to protect borders.
With this common interest, negotiators
should be able to work through a
solution. Instead
we have deadlock
and discord.
Imagine another
way. Imagine that
we discussed options.
Imagine that we
simply opened one
of our negotiation
tools, the trade
surveyor, and in an
adult manner debated
which variables
were important to
each other for the
purpose of examining
possibilities. Imagine that as a result
of that approach, enough value was
created to enable a bargaining range
and the crafting of a deal that would
work for all parties and remove the
impasse. Does this sound fantastical?
It shouldn’t. This is simply how
grown-up, collaborative negotiators
behave, and how they get results.
Back to my case. I firmly believe
that collaborative negotiators have a
part to play in our global future, not
only for the worlds of business and
politics, but for humankind itself.
Here is my manifesto:
• It’s time to grow up and
stop our childish bickering.
• It’s time to transition from
self-obsessed adolescence into
more considered, reflective and
reasonable adulthood.
• It’s time to negotiate, skilfully
and collaboratively.
If we don’t, these fruitless arguments
that dominate the news headlines
could escalate with potentially
catastrophic consequences. TNS
17

US E LEC TIO N SPECIAL
HOW DO THE
CANDIDATES
NEGOTIATE?
The negotiation style of any US President is arguably the most
scrutinized of anyone in the world. When the incumbent president
Donald Trump seeks reelection to a second term in 2020, he will be
fighting challenges from a diverse range of candidates. But how do
they negotiate? Sib Law takes us on a guided tour.
In the United States, and in many parts of the world, the name Donald Trump
is a lightning rod for commentary. From trade to immigration to judicial
nominations, opinions abound. The US President has fomented disagreements
about these topics via Twitter, and it has kept him and his administration at the
top of most news cycles.
Long before Trump was known for any of these issues, he staked a claim
on the topic of negotiation in the 1987 book Trump: The Art of the Deal.
The first two years of his presidency have seen a Negotiator-in-Chief
tend toward competitive negotiation in the range of two to four o’clock on
The Gap Partnership’s Clockface. His critics have argued for a more collaborative
approach to negotiation, especially when dealing with allies and partners.
More than a year away from the next presidential election, a broad range of
candidates have declared they are running to unseat Pres. Trump; many more have
publicly stated they are formally considering a challenge. Should any of them find
a path to the presidency, they will be responsible for negotiating on behalf of the
United States. By looking at the negotiation styles of the top contenders, we can
start to consider what might be to come.
18

THE NEGOTIATION SOCIETY
SENATOR BERNIE SANDERS
REPRESENTATIVE BETO O’ROURKE
O’Rourke tends to be more
conservative than other
House Democrats, having
voted against the majority
of his party more than
150 times. This suggests
he might adopt more
collaborative negotiating
strategies in working
with political opponents.
However, as a City Council
Member in El Paso, he
adopted a competitive
approach to police union
negotiations over pay, at one
point seeking ways to abolish
the union altogether. If those
tendencies return during a
stint at the White House,
he may find impasses
around signature issues.
Campaigning, Sanders appears unyielding and has
conceded to some descriptions of him as “nasty”.
One might conclude he behaves the same way in
negotiation. History suggests otherwise. Many times,
he has dropped idealism in favor of pragmatism.
During a funding conflict over the Veterans
Administration, as parties approached deadlock he
opted for a live conversation with his opponents that
restarted negotiations and ultimately, led to a deal.
As Mayor of Burlington, VT, he was known to hard
bargain over issues related to poor and workingclass
people: he supported a plant that made Gatling
guns because it brought in jobs. Additionally, he has
shown a willingness to make trades: he scaled back
a waterfront building project he supported to add
public amenities and green space. It’s likely that,
as president, he would vary his negotiating style
to match the specific needs of each negotiation.
SENATOR JOE BIDEN
During the mid-term elections
of 2014, Republicans made
sweeping gains in both houses
of Congress. A week later, Eric
Cantor, Republican and former
House Majority Leader, gave
an interview to Time Magazine
about what it was like to
negotiate with Biden. He said,
Biden “knows how to negotiate.”
He went on to say that Biden,
“understands how far you can
push and not lose a result or a
deal.” In the interview, Cantor
cited his experience serving with
Biden on a commission related
to the debt ceiling. They worked
together for two and a half hours
a day, three days a week, for seven
weeks. He explained “the Vice
President was the only one, and
that commission was the only
entity that really came up with
a list of spending reductions
that both sides could agree to.”
This example is one of many
earning him a reputation as a
dealmaker. Should he find a
path to the White House, it’s
likely Biden will continue his
approach of understanding his
counterparty’s positions and
trading concessions until he
reaches executable agreements.
19

SENATOR KAMALA HARRIS
A relative newcomer to national
politics, Kamala Harris joined the
Senate in 2017. Prior to that she
held posts as California Attorney
General and as a District
Attorney in the San Francisco
Bay Area. Her background in the
courtroom suggests she might
take hard fighting stances on
issues she finds important. She
did this during questioning of
Trump appointees who sought
Senate approval, most notably of
Brett Kavanaugh, in advance of
his confirmation to the Supreme
Court. However, when it comes to
one of her early signature issues,
anti-sex trafficking legislation,
she has chosen not to co-sponsor
bipartisan legislation. Instead, she
has worked behind the scenes as
a broker between advocates for
the legislation and the powerful
Silicon Valley companies who
have concerns around internet
freedom. This change in tack on
a key issue for her indicates she
might vary her style to match the
negotiation situation. Like Barack
Obama when he campaigned for
the White House, there are few
negotiations on a national level to
assess. However, should she find
herself in the Oval Office, her
ability to change her negotiation
style will directly impact her
ability to make deals.
SENATOR AMY KLOBUCHAR
On the heels of a spate
of negative press about
her Senate office work
environment and with
one of the highest staff
turnover rates in a
fifteen-year period, Amy
Klobuchar explains, “I can
be tough.” However, as
a member of the Senate
she is known for her
civility and for working
across the aisle. After an
exchange during the Senate
Confirmation of Brett
Kavanaugh to the Supreme
Court, conservative blogger
Erick Erickson wrote,
“If more senators behaved
like Amy Klobuchar
behaved today, we’d have
a far more dignified
process and Senate.”
She was a central player
in the Common Sense
Coalition of centrist
senators, which was
credited with brokering
an end to the government
shutdown. Should she wind
up at 1600 Pennsylvania
Avenue, there is every
reason to think she would
continue her tendency
to work with, instead of
against, her opponents.
SENATOR ELIZABETH WARREN
Her fiery rhetoric,
rancorous style and
branding as an East
Coast liberal suggest the
last thing she would do
is work across the aisle
with Republicans. While
that may be true on big
ticket issues, her work on
smaller ticket items paints
a different picture. Here
are a few Republicans in
the Senate with whom
she has worked: Shelley
Moore Capito (an opioid
bill, which passed into
law), Thom Tillis (in a
Twitter video in December
2018, she said he was on
the “same page” with her
when it came to veterans),
and Marco Rubio (cosponsored
several measures
in an effort to stop human
trafficking). Should she
become president, her
ability to find common
ground on smaller issues
may help her reach across
the divide on the big ones.
20

THE NEGOTIATION SOCIETY
SENATOR CORY BOOKER
ILLUSTRATIONS: CHRIS PEROWNE
Cory Booker was the first
senator to testify against
another senator when he
testified against Jeff Sessions
for the role of Attorney
General. At the Brett
Kavanaugh confirmation
hearing, he said he was
prepared to release classified
documents to the public.
The New York Times
ranked him as the third most
liberal senator. These facts
titillate the most liberal of
the Democratic party and
enflame conservatives.
It’s easy to see a route to
impasse in these public
displays. However, his ability
to break impasses is a charm
offensive. His approach
can best be seen during the
sixth hour of the Kavanaugh
confirmation hearing,
when he warmed the chilly
partisan atmosphere with
praise for his counterparty
“Mr. Chairman…even
though you did not rule in
our favor, I do hope you
understand that I value your
friendship…I have come to
have a deep respect for you.”
Chairman Grassley went
on to speak positively about
their friendship. If Booker
finds himself seated at the
Resolute Desk, it’s likely
his charm will be one of his
critical negotiation tools.
REPRESENTATIVE TULSI GABBARD
The former soldier who was deployed to Iraq and
Kuwait is no newcomer to taking a position. She
delighted liberals by resigning as Vice Chair of
the Democratic National Committee to support
Bernie Sanders against Hillary Clinton. Then, as
Donald Trump was preparing to enter the White
House, she took a Trump Tower meeting, despite
rumors he was considering her for a cabinet
position. She has openly supported direct talks
with North Korea and has met with Syria’s leader,
Bashar al-Assad. If she lands in the president’s
chair, taking unexpected positions may help her
bridge gaps with political opponents. However, in
doing so, she may alienate some in her own party.
Certainly, being unpredictable will be a tool she
employs in negotiations.
If Donald Trump is elected to another four years as
President of the United States, he may continue to employ the
negotiating style he’s already exhibited. However, lacking the
need to campaign or please a base during a second term, we
may see an unfettered President Trump change his negotiation
style. One thing is certain, whether Donald Trump wins
another four years or one of his opponents wins, the victor’s
negotiation style will impact outcomes. Those outcomes will
impact everything from the economy to law to everyday life.
How does your favorite candidate negotiate? TNS
21

Novelist Katy Regan uncovers
the strategies, decisions and
deals involved in bringing a
book to market.
I
am fairly sure that anyone who
loves reading would agree there is
something thrilling about picking
up a new, highly anticipated book,
and becoming utterly absorbed
in it. It is as though a subtle
alchemy takes place between
writer and reader, a connection
that is unspoken yet powerfully
communicated. This is what most
authors aspire to, and in part this
drives the hours, days, months…
sometimes years…of work
involved in writing a book.
But its writing is only one
part of a book’s birth. From the
germ of an idea forming in the
author’s subconscious to it finally
appearing on the bookshelves,
a book has been on a veritable
odyssey involving not just the
writer, but a team of negotiation
specialists. As a five-times
published author, I am fortunate
to work with just such a team.
I sat down with three of them –
my publisher, agent and publicist
– to learn more about what they
do and the skills they employ.
22

THE NEGOTIATION SOCIETY
THE AGENT THE PUBLISHER
SAM HUMPHREYS
ASSOCIATE PUBLISHER AT MANTLE,
AN IMPRINT OF PAN MACMILLAN
Negotiations for an editor begin
with the buying – in publishingspeak,
acquiring – of the book.
What this involves depends on
whether other publishing houses
want it. If they do, and there’s an
auction, my negotiation will be
HARRIET MOORE
LITERARY AGENT AT
DAVID HIGHAM ASSOCIATES
Negotiations begin the
moment an agent starts working
with an author to get their book
ready to go out on submission to
prospective publishers. I come
with my antennae for the market,
and the author comes with their
artistic vision, so it’s a case of them
deciding what they must remain
about convincing the author and
their agent that we are the right
home for the book. I will share
my editorial vision, for example
where I see it sitting in the market
and on the list of other books I’m
publishing. Then of course, there’s
money – not the be-all and end-all
but authors need to live! I come at
it from a commercial point of view,
consider overheads and profitability,
and negotiate with our finance and
contracts team to determine what
I can offer. I’ll also meet with the
in-house sales team, whose job is to
pitch to booksellers. They give their
opinion on the profitability of the
book and where it might sell, which
also informs how much I offer.
Once I’ve acquired a book, I need
the best publishing slot for it, i.e.
what time of year. In our scheduling
meetings we try to ensure there
aren’t two similar titles in the same
slot. Similarly, we wouldn't want to
publish a debut novel in October for
example, as it would compete with
big name authors bringing books
robust on, and me working
within those creative boundaries.
It’s ultimately the agent’s job to
turn the book into its most saleable
self, and this often occurs most
successfully in the sweet spot
where creative vision and the
commercial market meet.
I curate the list of editors to
submit the book to, so I need
to understand what they want.
Lunches with editors are invaluable
therefore, allowing me to accrue
markers of their tastes: so-and-so
loves big romances at the moment,
but would they be open to sci-fi?
My job is to hoard that information
and then matchmake books
to editors.
Once an editor makes an offer,
the real business negotiations begin.
If you have one offer, you negotiate
what rights are on the table and
safeguard as many as possible.
Ideally, we would license the UK
publisher the right to sell the book
in the UK in the English language
only, so we could then sell the
out for Christmas. Sometimes I
think a book is going to be a bigger
book than the sales team and they
have to rein me in! Or I may think
of it as a hardback Waterstones
literary book, whereas they see it
as a commercial book that will sell
in the supermarkets. It’s important
to present a unified vision to
the booksellers, however, so we
negotiate on this before we get in
front of them.
The negotiation for the cover
and title are mainly with the author
and their agent. Sometimes it’s a
matter of trying to persuade the
author to go with a cover that
they may not particularly love,
but we feel gives the book its best
chance. Perhaps the most sensitive
negotiation however is the editing
of the book. I am always acutely
conscious of the author’s artistic
sensibilities and creative ownership,
so I try to demonstrate compromise,
for example, “If you agree to let that
bit go, then we can keep that other
bit in.”
translation and US rights.
We will also want to keep film
and TV rights separate. When
trying to sell the book in the US
we can either sell direct to the US
publishers, or pitch to a US agent
who will then submit and sell the
US rights on their behalf. If the
latter, then myself and the other
agent have to negotiate a share
of commission between us.
When there’s more than one
offer, we have to negotiate how to
run that auction. We might ask each
publisher to pay a certain amount or
else they don’t get to the next round
of the auction, or they need to get
their best bid in by a certain day and
time. The best offer is not always
the most money, it’s also about
editorial and publishing vision.
Once the match has been made,
and the offer of advance and main
terms, i.e. territories and royalties,
negotiated and accepted, I work on
negotiating the finer points of the
contract for the author.
23

LAURA SHERLOCK
COMPANY DIRECTOR AT
LAURA SHERLOCK PR
As an in-house publicist,
I negotiate with my colleagues to
work on the book I want in the first
place. I then push for proof copies
which are a seal of belief – a sign
the publishing house thinks this is
a book worth going the extra mile
for. The book editors of long-lead
magazines (monthly and quarterly)
particularly need proofs because
they work so far in advance.
I’ve then
got to persuade them that this is
the ideal book for their slot and
that issue. When I’m writing a press
release I try and include a couple
of lines that reviewers can lift: if
they can immediately see a sentence
that will work in their copy, they
are halfway to being persuaded.
Often a key focus for the rights
team or the author’s agent is to sell
serialization rights i.e. the right to
extract a section of the book in a
newspaper or magazine. But a big
serial deal with one newspaper can
make it tricky to achieve coverage
in other papers – both because they
will see that one paper has already
had the exclusive, and because the
books are embargoed until this
serialization has run, so we have
less time to get the books into
other journalists’ hands. We try to
negotiate with the rights team to
agree dates for the extract to run
which are sufficiently early that we
have a window of time to get
review copies out and encourage
further coverage. As publicists, we
would ideally like to achieve the
widest coverage possible in the
greatest number of media outlets.
So to us it isn’t
about the value of
the rights deal, it’s
about the value of
the editorial – the
balance between
the benefit of
getting a huge
splash in one
paper or getting
widespread
but smaller
pieces across a
cross-section
of the media.
All newspapers and magazines
want to go first. I believe in being
honest about what coverage I’ve
secured, while respecting that a
newspaper that has already agreed
an interview or feature will not
necessarily want competitors
knowing what their plans are. I am
dealing with journalists who know
and trust me to a certain extent, so
usually that is enough information
for them to make a decision on
whether or not they’re willing to
follow. You can’t mess them around
as they will never trust you again.
In the run up to publication,
I speak with the author about
possible interviews and things
they could write about to publicize
their book. I need to tease out
ideas they may not have thought
of, and sometimes manage their
expectations, “Why can’t I get on
Newsnight/guest edit The
Spectator?” Sometimes a newspaper,
magazine, radio or TV show might
publish or broadcast a negative
interview or take quotes out of
context, and as the publicist who
has set up the piece, the author may
apportion some of the blame to you.
That’s a tricky part of the job and
a question of explaining what has
happened and perhaps trying to get
a correction published, or at least
an apology on email.
Lastly, there are events and
festivals. When we get a request
for our author to appear we need
to ask lots of questions to establish
feasibility. Because if it’s likely to
be five people in a library in
Edinburgh when the author lives
in London and they’re only
covering expenses, we probably
have to politely decline! TNS
THE PUBLICIST
Katy’s novel, Little Big Love (formerly Little Big
Man in hardback) was published by Mantle, Pan
Macmillan, in paperback on April 18th 2019.
24

THE NEGOTIATION SOCIETY
T h e Futureproof Negotiat o r
Alistair White explains why “future consciousness”
should be practiced by all negotiators.
You have just concluded a deal. You shake
hands, smiles all round. Yippee!
The master negotiator does it again!
Wait a minute. Ask yourself: at that precise
moment, right there, right then, how much is that
deal worth to you or your organization? Sorry to be
a killjoy here, but the answer is…zero. That’s right.
Nothing, nada, zilch, nix, diddly-squat.
The truth is that any deal – whether it is a
multi-billion-dollar international trade agreement
between nation states, or a bargain struck with your
teenage son to tidy his room – is negotiated in the
present but implemented in the future. The only
time that deal is worth anything is when goods
and services start to flow between the two nations,
or when you walk into your son’s bedroom and you
can actually see the floor.
And let’s face it, we have all negotiated
agreements which have, for whatever reason, either
gone disastrously wrong or haven’t quite delivered
the results we anticipated. This presents the
seasoned negotiator with both a challenge and an
opportunity: can we craft an agreement that both
protects us against the unexpected and increases
the likelihood of generating the outcome we
want? Like a negotiation architect, can we design
durability into our contracts?
The good news is that we can – it just involves
a little thought and foresight. Fundamentally, we
need to ask ourselves the question, “What could
go wrong?”. Of course no one can predict what
will happen in the future, but we are all capable
of imagining what could happen. And if we can
envisage what could happen, then we are in a
position – right here, in the present – to figure
out what we will do if that eventuality arises.
For example, if you conclude a three year
contract that features a pricing structure across
multiple international currencies, then it really
doesn’t take a Nobel Prize winner to figure out that
those currencies might fluctuate against each other
over the contract lifetime. So, in the present we can
build a clause into our contract which stipulates
how our pricing structure will change in the event
of a fluctuation of x or y percent. We have secured
the future of our agreement and furthermore, we
have avoided the possibility of having to react
quickly to an unforeseen development and hastily
renegotiate our contract when we are under short
term pressure. Moreover, this kind of renegotiation
has a nasty habit of escalating into a dispute that
threatens the integrity of the whole agreement.
It doesn’t have to be currency. Just think of all
the macro-economic circumstances that might
change over the duration of the contract and work
out, with your counterparty, how you will deal with
them should they happen. If they don’t happen,
then you carry on as before; but if they do, then
at least you are protected.
I imagine that most of you have some form of
life insurance or that you have insured your home
and its contents. You really don’t want your house
to burn down and you definitely don’t want to die
prematurely – the likelihood is that neither of these
will happen. But, sensibly, you have made provision
in advance, to protect yourself and your family
against either eventuality. Why would you not do
the same in your other negotiations?
But we can go further than that. Virtually
every contract I have ever seen will contain some
concrete measurement around the outcome which
the contract is supposed to generate. It could be
a sales number, it could be a completion date, it
could be a performance measurement. Somewhere
in the contract there will be a specific metric
that acts as an indicator of success. Again, it isn’t
difficult to imagine circumstances in which that
metric is not achieved, or even over-achieved.
The future-conscious negotiator will build clauses
into their contracts which either penalize underperformance
or reward over-performance – or
even a combination of both. In doing this, we are
building a layer of protection into our contract that
increases the probability of a successful result.
Two of the key personality traits of a negotiator
are caution and creativity. By exercising caution
we can assess the various factors that pose a risk
to our agreement. By deploying our creativity we
can design contracts that protect us and make the
successful implementation of the contract all the
more probable.
Negotiate the future, in the present.
mmxix
25

LEARNING
LOBOLA
Campbell Graham reports on an ancient
African custom with negotiation at its heart.
One of the occasions I most enjoy as a negotiation
consultant is the team dinner on the second day
of a workshop. It’s a chance for my delegates and
I to relax, get to know each other over a drink, and share
our negotiation war stories. It was recently at one of these
dinners that I was somewhat taken aback to overhear one
delegate ask another, “How much did you pay for your wife?”
As conversation starters go, it proved a strong one – and the
topic of lobola went on to dominate the evening’s discussion.
As the night wore on, I realized that despite living in Africa
for most of my life I knew remarkably little about this
ancient and very specific type of negotiation.
Lobola is an African tradition where the families of a
betrothed couple negotiate how much will be paid by the
groom’s family to the bride’s. This “bride price” – traditionally
remunerated with cattle – symbolizes the groom’s family’s
gratitude to the bride’s family for the upbringing of their
daughter and as such aims to build unity between the two
families. The practice of lobola is still widely viewed as a
key step in cementing a couple’s relationship and is supported
by both men and women. Recognized in law, it is governed
under the Recognition of Customary Marriages Act (1988).
The bringing together of two families is an appealing
concept, but what intrigued me was the negotiation angle.
What’s the protocol of these negotiations? How long do
they take? Who is involved? And, are there any lessons
for the modern-day commercial negotiator?
Seeking to deepen my understanding, I met with four
of my clients and asked them to talk me through their own,
very personal, experience of lobola.
26

THE NEGOTIATION SOCIETY
THEMBA MABIZELA
PROVINCIAL HEAD OF BUSINESS BANKING,
FIRST NATIONAL BANK
SIBONGILE MTSHALI
SENIOR MANAGER: INTEGRATED MARKETING
COMMUNICATION, AT FNB SOUTH AFRICA
My lobola negotiation took place in 1994 between
two Zulu families. The build-up to the negotiations
was an exciting and anxious time for all concerned. In our
culture the preparations before the meeting take days and
include the slaughtering of a cow or sheep ready for the
feast that will take place immediately after the negotiations
are concluded. As the groom I was not permitted to take an
active role in the negotiations, but I did attend to observe
the discussions. Crucially, this meant I had some control
over how much was paid.
Traditionally this payment is made in cattle, but as a
modern couple we’d decided to ask for a cash equivalent.
Once the bride’s party had stated their price and put forward
their rationale, we requested a time-out to discuss their offer.
They’d agreed to our cash request, which we felt was a good
sign, so we returned to the negotiations with a counter offer.
That was the beginning of intense discussions that went back
and forth from morning till noon, before we were finally able
to settle on a price that was acceptable to all.
I was anxious about what to expect – the process
is very formal and I had heard stories where the
“requesting party” was sent home because a step in the
process was missed. I did not want that to happen.
As the bride, tradition did not permit me to be present
during the negotiations. My role was to meet the party
representing my husband so they could confirm if it was me
or my sister they had come to negotiate about. I remember
rolling my eyes at the absurdity of this and thinking –
“Seriously, guys?”
After the negotiation my mother reported that my father
made a surprising move. Following a high opening offer,
Dad intervened and said, “I don’t want these kids to start
life with a struggle. My daughter and this young man are
building a life together, and that is going to need money.”
This was unheard of but my father stood firm. My husband
and I still talk about the kindness my father showed us that
day, and that we must remember this for the future if our
daughter gets married.
KATLEGO MOLUTSI
SENIOR CATEGORY MANAGER, ANGLO AMERICAN
KAYA MLENZE
REGIONAL BUYER, AFRICA'S LARGEST RETAILER
My lobola negotiation took place in 2016 between
my Tswana family and my wife’s Sotho family.
It was a complex and formal process and made me feel
as if I was being asked to buy my place in my wife’s
family – this negotiation was very different to a
commercial transaction.
Firstly I had to find three people, who I implicitly trusted,
to represent my interests. My mother helped to select my
team, and we decided on my uncle and two close family
friends. Tradition dictates that the groom does not take part
in the negotiations, but these days there is scope to bend
the rules. I met with my wife’s father before everyone else
got involved to discuss what the family’s expectations
were regarding the lobola payment. This unconventional
approach was effective and allowed me to agree the
lobola amount and what it would be used for in advance
of the official negotiations.
My lobola negotiation occurred in 2013 between
my Xhosa family and my wife’s mixed-race family.
It began outside the gate of the bride’s family’s house and
started off firmly on the right-hand side of the Clockface.
Initially the groom’s party received the “silent treatment” but
then, once acknowledged, they were invited into the house,
or more specifically, the “negotiation room”.
Gifts were presented and the negotiation proper began.
Once the first offer had been made, the bride’s party counteroffered
supported by a rationale why their daughter was
worthy of the higher price. The negotiations began to move
around the Clockface as our future together was considered
and further offers were put forward. As they began to reach
an agreement, another date was set to further discuss details
and the basis of our families’ new relationship with each
other was established.
27

NEGOTIATION PRINCIPLES FROM LOBOLA
Listen to the other family’s perspective. Get inside the other party’s head.
Understanding the other side’s priorities and situation is the best way to
achieve a mutually acceptable deal.
Behave with humility. Don’t let ego get in the way. Don’t open the
negotiations with money; instead begin with prayer or the offering of gifts.
Proceed with caution. Remain consciously competent. Follow each
stage of the negotiation in turn and with patience. Do not resort to
arguing. Both parties should be aiming to build relationships.
Know your figures. Be in control of the math. Understand the real cost
of what you are negotiating. For example, negotiating cash rather than
cattle shows that the couple’s needs for their wedding are being considered.
Hold your nerve. Stick to the plan. Tension will build up at times,
and this is when it is important to not deviate from your game plan or
get emotional. People prefer to do business with people they respect
and this certainly applies in the coming together of two families.
FOR LOBOLA
Lobola has been carried out for
generations and is deeply embedded
in African culture, but how relevant
will it continue to be in the future?
On the one hand its opponents
argue that it is rooted in a patriarchal
system out of step with modern times,
commoditizing women and creating
a financial barrier to marriage which
disadvantages those of lower financial
means. However recent legal challenges
to lobola have had mixed results.
In 2016 a Ugandan court rejected an
appeal to ban the practice but ruled
that men can’t ask for a refund in case
of divorce. In the same year Zimbabwe
passed a law preventing parents from
accepting payment for daughters under
the age of 18.
Supporters of lobola point to the
values of mutual respect, love and
dignity upon which it is built, and
argue that it is a beautiful tradition
which brings families together, unites
communities, and future-proofs and
redistributes wealth.
Whichever camp you fall into, the
study of lobola is a fascinating one for
negotiators. Drawing from my own
investigations, I was struck by how the
principles of effective negotiation are
as relevant to this ancient custom as
they are to a modern-day commercial
scenario. And so it proves that the skill
of negotiation, rooted as it is in human
psychology, is truly timeless. TNS
28

THE NEGOTIATION SOCIETY
Tricks of my Trade
US consultant Mikaela Hollidge takes her
turn in the hot seat to be quizzed about how
her commercial life before TGP informed her
expertise and passion for negotiation.
The Negotiation Society: What did you do before
becoming a negotiation consultant?
Mikaela: I spent the first ten years of my career in retail.
It appealed to me as it combines art and science: you
could be a buyer working with the design team but
also be responsible for P&L.
TNS: Where did you start your career and
what did you do?
Mikaela: I joined Target’s grad scheme, a brilliant
introduction as it teaches core skills such as
forecasting, assortment development and trend
recapping. I became an analyst in apparel.
We regularly reviewed and made recommendations
using data – what’s selling per region, what colors
are popular in what sizes – and also assumptions
based on understanding customers and trends.
TNS: Any trends that you spotted?
Mikaela: Yes – the legging! We found they were getting
popular after a trend trip to Boston where preppy high
school girls were wearing them as pants. The tricky part
was predicting how high it would go. Could I commit
to 1m units from my supplier? In fact, the leggings
trend never went away. It was fun to be part of that
phenomenon, and a valuable learning curve.
TNS: Tell us about your experience of negotiating
in your role at Target?
Mikaela: As a buyer, I held negotiation events with
my suppliers and in one case 3 suppliers made up
75% of my category and 15 small guys the rest.
I realized the margins of these small guys were
terrible! I negotiated to gain better terms using
low cost/high value trades. I saved $2m and my
profitability saw an 8.5% improvement.
TNS: Impressive! How did it make you feel?
Mikaela: Good, obviously! I gained respect from my
leadership and supplier base and received a Senior
Vice President award for the results. That was when
my passion for negotiation was born.
TNS: Any other notable learning experiences?
Mikaela: I was part of the team who launched Target
in Canada. We were the biggest international retail
expansion ever, with 133 store openings in a year.
Despite the business bombing, it was a great experience.
I helped grow a team and learned how to respond
to failure on a massive scale. It taught me resilience
and grit. My category, Kids Apparel, was one of two
categories to hit its financials for the year, with a
healthy 7% market share in the Back to School season.
TNS: So, Target Canada closed down. What was next
for you?
Mikaela: Walgreens headhunted me to help set up their
merchandising planning team in Chicago. It was an
amazing opportunity – helping to hire a 50-person
team and coaching the rest of the company on how
to work with planning. I found building my team’s
relationship with the buyers incredibly rewarding.
We created a seasonal dashboard that went to the
executive team each week including the President
of Merchandising.
TNS: How did you make the move from
Walgreens to TGP?
Mikaela: TGP started working with
Walgreens during my time there.
At one point, I found myself in front
of [TGP consultant] Paul Bradford
and was in awe. I was looking to
pivot into consulting and decided
this was my dream job. I did my
research and sent a heartfelt note
on LinkedIn to the HR manager.
The rest is history.
TNS: What’s it like
working at TGP?
Mikaela: I love it – the
exposure to leadership,
the passion and drive
from everyone across
the business. Above
all I love that my
experience in retail
comes into play
when working
with clients.
We speak the
same language.
29

The exclusive online
community for negotiators
In May 2019 The Negotiation Society launched a new digital platform that
provides its members with a range of tools, content and resources that facilitate
the continued learning, embedding and development of negotiation skills.
Members can access:
NEGOTIATION PLANNING TOOLS
Sophisticated yet easy-to-use tools to plan, prepare and
execute the most complex of negotiations. Specifically
designed to ensure that the maximum value is achieved
with every deal.
THE PROFILER
The Gap Partnership’s negotiation profiler allows members
to measure their skills against the 14 behaviors required
to be a complete skilled negotiator.
NEGOTIATION CASE STUDIES
A set of realistic and commercial scenarios that members
can use to practice negotiating with each other.
NEGOTIATION SHORTS
A series of bite-size films that explore individual negotiation
principles to refresh learning. Ideal preparation for an
important negotiation!
EVERYDAY NEGOTIATION FILMS
Short films that bring to life how negotiation skills can be
used to optimize the results of those negotiations taking
place outside of work.
NEGOTIATION BLOGS AND INSIGHTS
A new suite of negotiation thought pieces as well as regular
commentary on negotiations in business and the news.
THE NEGOTIATION SOCIETY MAGAZINE
The opportunity to view all of the digital versions, or
subscribe to have the printed copy delivered straight to
your door.
THE FOUNDATION NEGOTIATOR
Exclusive access to The Gap Partnership’s online learning
app that teaches basic negotiation principles for anyone
looking to develop or refresh their core skills.
DISCUSSION BOARD
An interactive space for members to engage and debate
with each other on topics of interest.
30

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COMMUNITY
connecting over
20,000 members
A KNOWLEDGE
BANK
sharing the latest thinking,
tools and development
resources
A NEWSROOM
serving negotiation news
and insight from around
the world
Membership is open to anyone
interested in negotiation, whether
to develop their skills further, meet
like-minded negotiators, or simply
keep in touch with negotiation
thinking from around the world.
Subscription rates apply. Limited
founding member status available
for alumni of The Gap Partnership.
To become a member register at
www.thenegotiationsociety.com
31

QUESTION
With companies from Procter & Gamble to General Motors
to Intel hiring futurists, foresight and trend analysis is
becoming firmly embedded in the corporate world.
And little wonder – knowing what might be around the
corner can provide a huge commercial advantage to firms,
individuals...and, of course, negotiators.
To get ahead of the game, we asked a group of futurists from
around the world to answer the question, “What future
scenarios do you envisage in your area by 2030?”
32

Dr. Amy Zalman
CEO AND FOUNDER OF STRATEGIC
FORESIGHT CONSULTANCY PRESCIENT
As a futurist, my area is Strategic
Foresight, a management discipline
that helps people and institutions plan
for complex, uncertain and distant
futures. How will the practice of
foresight change in the next decade or
so, and how might the people in firms,
governments and communities begin
to plan differently?
First, there is a growing recognition
now that leaders and organizations
need to approach planning and
organizational change differently.
The premise that the future will
be different from the past, once an
abstraction, is becoming a palpable
reality in the workplace, in our daily
lives, in our politics and civic lives, in
our natural environment. The scale
of change introduced by artificial
intelligence and through connected
devices promises to be immense, in
ways both productive and harmful.
Leaders and organizations are
in the process of waking up to this
fact, and there is, as a result growing
interest in the mindsets and toolkits
that futurists use. By 2030, there is
likely to be an even broader and more
intense understanding that we – all of
us – are living through a transformative
moment. People may respond by
shying away from change, but there
will be greater will to understand and
adapt to change.
Second, artificial intelligence is
likely to play a larger role in planning.
Analytics will have grown more
nuanced in offering predictive insights
about communities or customers,
and many decisions will be based on
patterns found in massive data sets.
We will all have to make decisions
about the benefits and drawback of
algorithm-based planning, and to
grow literate in the new versions
of planning this engenders.
Shara Evans
FUTURIST KEYNOTE
SPEAKER
Researchers are predicting that
within a few years digital assistants such
as Alexa, Google and Siri will routinely
analyze conversations to provide
relationship advice, and with the help of
genetic matching even predict chemistry
and compatibility between people
looking for a partner. This type of AIbased
analysis is likely to make its way
into the business world: imagine having
a conversation with a business prospect
and your personal AI sends you prompts
through your augmented reality glasses
on the best way to “seal the deal”.
We’ll see advances in health-related
technologies, with precision medicine
enabled by genetic research, nanotechdriven
cures, preventive therapies,
and tiny robots capable of performing
surgery deep within our bodies,
autonomously or guided by doctors.
Wearables – machines buried deep
within our bodies – will provide realtime
telemetry of everything happening
inside of us. Many of these technologies
are being experimented with in labs
right now and will be ready by the
mid-2030s.
Voice interfaces are going to
be commonplace, and kids will be
perplexed when they encounter
something that doesn’t talk back to
them! Image recognition is rapidly
making its way into our everyday
world – from facial recognition to
unlock our smartphones to state-based
surveillance of our every move. We’ll
continue to generate massive data sets
from our phones, computers, gadgets
and everything we do. People and
companies will be looking to monetize
this information, or more nefariously
use it for criminal purposes.
There are many exciting technologies
on the horizon. It’s up to us to decide
when, where and how we will deploy
them. This is the time and place to
stand back and take stock of the future
we want to build for humanity.
Maree Conway
FORESIGHT PRACTITIONER AND
STRATEGIC ADVISOR, THINKING FUTURES
One of my specialist areas of
foresight is further education. I can
see four possible futures for the
university in 2030.
The corporate university
A linear, business as usual projection
of today, where the university continues
to be a corporate and controlled public
institution, with no real ability to shape
its future.
The academic university
More a hope than a possibility –
where the traditional and deeply
held belief in the university’s social
purpose resurfaces, and the right to
determine what a university does
returns to the academic.
The alternative university
New structures and processes
are already being established outside
today’s higher education system.
These universities share the belief
of the second possible future around
the university’s social purpose but here
academics have decided that they won’t
‘play the game’ and have moved outside
the system.
The digital university
A projection of today, one where
technology is part of the design and
operations of universities. It rejects old
ways of teaching and seeks two-way
real time interaction with students.
There is a final possible future,
emerging from a trend towards
seeing university education as having
little relevance in today’s world –
too expensive, unnecessary and a
waste of time. In this future, there
are no universities.
It’s unlikely that any of these
possible futures will emerge as I’ve
described there. Instead, we need
to take a futures stance to better
understand today’s shifting context
for universities to respond proactively
to shape change rather than end up
having no choice but to react to it.
33

Cecily Sommers
BUSINESS FUTURIST, AUTHOR,
KEYNOTE SPEAKER
The story of the next ten
years holds fascinating potentials.
The AI race is only getting hotter.
The functional combination of
surveillance, automation, and machine
learning – what AI looks like today –
will deepen and spread. Its effect on
our economy and society is at once
subtle and profound. The virtual,
digital, autonomous economy that it’s
spawning has a life of its own. Like
a genie released from its bottle, AI is
kicking over the old containers, running
roughshod over our slow, deliberative
democratic processes, our free-market
ideology, and our views on privacy,
rights, and morality.
Though AI will continue to take
the limelight, the real power over the
next decades will be how it combines
with other equally revolutionary
technologies, such as bioengineering.
The ability to clone and edit DNA,
print organs and food, and make
custom biological treatments
and enhancements relies on AI.
Together AI and neurobiology will
literally blow our brains open, as we
begin to wire nature and tech into a
complementary intelligence. That’s the
dream that many researchers are after
and, as with most tech dreams, it’s just
a matter of time before they come true.
The most compelling aspect of these
technologies is how fundamental they
are. AI is redefining intelligence, and
bioengineering is redefining life itself.
However, the one to watch in these
next ten years is quantum computing
which may redefine what reality is,
what facts are, and even the principles
and tools we use to probe the universe.
The science behind each of these
technologies is as real as it is radical.
We must become comfortable enough
with these ideas that we can then be
thoughtful about how we use them.
Our collective goal for 2030 should
be to become not only more intelligent
on these matters, but wiser.
Alisha Bhagat
SENIOR STRATEGIST,
FORUM FOR THE FUTURE
A healthy, flourishing food system is
critical for human health and planetary
stability. Continuing along the current
trajectory, by 2030 we could see further
degradation of agricultural land and
healthy food becoming a scarce luxury.
Or we could experience a future that
shifts towards sustainable agriculture
practices, reduces food waste, and
provides food that is affordable,
convenient, nutritious, and culturally
relevant. To achieve a preferred future
we must first deal with many critical
present-day problems.
Laborers throughout the food
system, from farmworkers to restaurant
staff, are among the lowest paid. If we
continue to devalue this work, we will
struggle to build a just food system that
reflectsthe critical role of growing crops,
planning and preparing meals, and
feeding people.
Consumers can face up to 50,000
products in a grocery store. To make
the task of choosing food even more
difficult, there are hundreds of studies
in the media making health claims
about particular foods. Consumers
consistently express preferences for
healthy, tasty, sustainable food, but the
barrage of information can make it
impossible to know what to buy.
Current solutions split into two
camps. On one side you have those that
support tech-driven, highly engineered
products such as lab-grown meat, meal
replacements, fortified grains, and plantproteins
that mimic meat. In contrast,
a very different food movement
prioritizes minimally processed foods,
regenerative agriculture, local and
organic foods. Ideological differences
between food advocates is resulting in
missed opportunities as people focus on
what divides them.
We have the resources to build the
future we desire. However, we need to
rethink our values and norms in order
to collaborate to achieve a sustainable
food system.
Dr. Jennifer Gidley, phd.
DIRECTOR OF RESEARCH,
OCEANIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE
The future we face threatens to
end comfortable, urban, middleclass
lifestyles. The impact of a global
climate crisis is evident with wildfires,
floods and extreme weather, indicating
futures of rising seas, drowning cities
and drastic food shortages, as arable
land is lost to drought, floods and
salination. While climate scientists
see so clearly, many politicians appear
almost blind.
Science reports the nine hottest years
on record occurred in the last decade,
attributing heating atmosphere and
oceans to increased carbon emissions.
The UN Special IPCC Report (2018)
warns that heating above 1.5 degrees
celsius will expand oceans, causing
extinction of coral reefs and entire
ecosystems, displacing hundreds of
millions of people worldwide. The UN
Secretary-General Antonio Guterres
warns we must take "urgent and far
more ambitious action” to cut emissions
in half by 2030, reaching net zero
emissions by 2050. Many politicians
supported by coal and oil industries
refuse to accept this. In Australia,
politicians argue that coal creates jobs,
but Germany disproves this having
created more jobs in renewables than
they lost from closing down coal.
As former President of the World
Futures Studies Federation (2009-17),
I know that “catastrophic futures”
is but one scenario. There are many
others. Humans have never been more
conscious, more globally connected, or
more capable of radical positive change.
The instantaneous communications at
our fingertips can mobilize millions in
an instant to act for positive change.
School children striking for climate
action to protect their own futures
are showing real leadership with
knowledge, passion and political will.
My book The Future: A Very Short
Introduction examines “Grand Global
Futures Challenges”, including climate
change options, and proposes numerous
“global futures alternatives” that offer
powerful opportunities.
34

Koffi Kouakou
DIRECTOR, THE MILLENNIUM PROJECT,
SOUTH AFRICAN NODE (A THINK TANK)
Here are four future scenarios for Africa.
Afreedomia: Africa grows mineralrich
and closes exceptional deals
Africa becomes global investors’
best friend for natural resources deals;
described by The Economist as the
“New Scramble for Africa”. Africa’s
resources attract world-class investors
for deals that speed up economic
growth. African nations are prosperous
and strike fair deals. Key business
implication: The art of negotiation is
an important instrument for better
deals in Africa.
Afrorisia: Africa is resource-rich
yet it gets raw deals
Africa’s natural resources attract
investors but achieves unfair deals to the
detriment of its economy. Unscrupulous
investors don’t play by the rules. China
becomes the dominant trade player and
the yuan becomes the preferred trading
currency. Key business implication:
Be ready to negotiate in Swahili
and Mandarin.
Afropocalypse: Africa's reserves
decline so it gets raw deals
The scramble for Africa by global
investors turns into a war over
resources. Africa's economic growth
declines due to poorly negotiated
mining extraction deals, environmental
degradation, political turmoil, poverty,
unemployment, corruption, resource
nationalism, and disinvestment. Key
business implication: Short-term
negotiation for better, low-cost deals
becomes a priority.
Afrocentria: Africa's resources
are depleted but it gets fair deals
Although Africa's natural resources
are depleting, it enters an era of
attractive negotiation with the rest
of the world. The new scramble for
Africa diminishes to a few global
players, mainly Asian investors. Africa
is now “China’s Second Continent”,
as Howard French quips in his book.
Key business implication: Africa
becomes the center of complex and
risky business deal negotiations.
Bronwyn Williams
TREND ANALYST AND FORESIGHT
LEAD, FLUXTRENDS.COM
The global balance of power has
reached a crossroads. Technological
advances are combining with shifting
socio-economic trends, creating new
ideologies, each pushing for a
different version of utopia.
Let’s consider some scenarios:
AI + UBI = Social Utopia
Tech-pessimism, caused by
rising digital displacement results
in widespread acceptance of statesponsored
universal basic income as
an alternative to the current capitalist
economy e.g. Democrat Andrew
Yang’s 2020 presidential campaign
pledge of UBI for all.
AI + Centralized Control =
Centrally Planned Economy
The threat of terrorism causes
governments to follow China’s lead
and invest in surveillance technology
to monitor, control and protect their
populations. Citizens voluntarily give
up a level of privacy and autonomy in
exchange for security e.g. China’s
social credit score system.
AI + Private Corporations = Smart Cities
Cash-strapped governments with
ageing populations, unable to raise
funds to update infrastructure through
taxation or quantitative easing, allow
tech corporations to develop selfgoverned
smart cities, outsourcing
part of the governance function to the
private sector e.g. Toronto’s partnership
with Google’s Sidewalk labs.
Blockchain + Individualism =
Self Sovereignty
Individuals, empowered by new
technologies, reject control by states
and privacy-invasions by corporations
in favor of collaborative self-governance
systems e.g. BitNation and V-Taiwan.
Regardless of which socio-economic
governance scenarios plays out
corporations and individuals
need to be aware of all possibilities
and implications so they can take
steps today to ensure their preferred
futures have the best chances of
coming to fruition.
Carmen Villadar
BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT AND
ENGAGEMENT CONSULTANT
I see the “artificial intelligence
of things” (AIoT) becoming more
prevalent in industries that have seen a
surge in innovation and new technology
adoption over the past fifteen years.
Healthcare, fintech, education, and
business services have been the main
themes that have occupied most
of my consulting career, however,
implementation and/or integration
of some form of artificial intelligence
will also take hold in the older more
established industries such as logistics
and transportation, manufacturing,
and construction.
The obvious use of virtual reality
and augmented reality applications will
provide an interesting opportunity to
expand the immersive experience in
the education and entertainment fields.
These industries will learn how to create
VR and AR experiences that heighten
even our basic daily experiences.
There will also be a clearer picture
of what the future of work will look
like in the next decade. As the tail end
of the visionary baby boomers hold on
tighter to their foothold in emerging
technologies, the idea of remote
work will be a forethought in more
workplaces. We’ll see more and more
thoughtful contribution by a group
of Millennials who have managed to
balance online/offline life. More so,
it will be the later Post-Millennials
(Generation Z) who will stand out as
true game changers. This generation
will set the new standards of society,
culture, and humanity. We’ll have much
to learn from Generation Z. Sit back,
observe and take notes. TNS
35

Steve Gates introduces the TCSN-6, the innovative
negotiation program that is experiential, transformative
and entirely virtual.
ur residential workshops are based on experiential
learning: learning from doing. As such they are
measurable and accountable while delivering
confidence and performance. For many years our clients
have been asking for increased flexibility in how we deliver
our training; a format which their teams can attend over a
period of time from home or the workplace. They may have
a business need spread across geographically remote areas,
or perhaps their teams from, say, Africa and Australia, wish
to adopt a common way of working together.
We are living in an age of disruption that is
revolutionizing the way people learn. Advances in technology
and a millennial mindset have transformed how information,
knowledge and news is absorbed. Ever-increasing
connectivity and the proliferation of cloud-based platforms
combine with social media, instant communication and
virtual relationships to become the new norms.
Our challenge was how to deliver the experiential
component and have our attendees learn from practice whilst
still enabling the workshop to take place online. We know
from research that many existing online training options
struggle with this, often delivering the facts but missing the
journey. This is fine if you want to learn about a process, a
law or a product, but where human interaction is concerned
we found that the binary nature of an online question and
answer format is simply not strong enough to change behavior.
We have embraced the challenge.
We have built the platform,
reengineered and updated the
content of The Complete Skilled
Negotiator, and launched our first
pilot workshops.
The Complete Skilled
Negotiator 6: the world’s leading
negotiation behavioral change
program – via your laptop.
IN BRIEF
• A 6-week negotiation program incorporating
6 live case studies and featuring modules
delivered by 6 negotiation consultants.
• 42 hours of online tuition, 22 of which are
interactive with our consultants, ensuring
active and consolidated learning.
• Full utilization of Gap Tools, our online
negotiation planning tools, across two
live negotiations.
• A workshop app which helps attendees manage
their learning with progress charts, live attendee
profiling and interaction with other participants.
• 360-degree feedback and personal reports
produced by experienced negotiation consultants.
The formal release of available
dates for TCSN-6 will commence
in the summer of 2019. For more
information please contact
The Gap Partnership.
36

THE NEGOTIATION SOCIETY
Tim Green
Hoping for the best:
a poor strategy for
a wildebeest, and
a negotiator
Human beings have always possessed the ability to
dream, to imagine something better for tomorrow
than the reality of today. Central to this is the
concept of hope, defined in the Oxford English
Dictionary as, “a feeling of expectation and desire for
a particular thing to happen”. Whether hope is the
sole domain of humans is a question for the scientists
to debate – although I’ve often wondered what passes
through the mind of a wildebeest as it jumps off the
banks of the Mara River in Kenya, having just watched
its best friend get munched to pieces by one of the
dozens of giant crocodiles lying in wait…if it isn’t hope,
then it’s certainly a plucky spirit!
The trouble with hoping for better things is that for
most people it means putting the outcome in the hands
of someone else. You are relying on others to deliver on
your hope and make life better for you, to do the work
that you can’t, or won’t, do. Perhaps they’re the scientists
and engineers figuring out how to make things taller,
smaller, stronger or lighter, while you were trying to
figure out how quickly you could drink a pint of beer at
college. Perhaps they’re the environmentalists striving
to rid the seas of plastic while you’re busy buying a bottle
of water at the beach. The point being, it’s them doing it,
not you.
The other problem with putting your faith in others
is that the reality that transpires can be far removed
from the utopian picture you were sold. History is
littered with such examples. What’s billed as the next big
thing, an innovation to transform humankind, can turn
out to be as full of gas as the mighty Hindenburg just
before the much-heralded future of air transportation
(and the entire passenger airship industry) quite literally
went down in flames in Manchester Township, New
Jersey on May 6, 1937. Fictional scenarios can be just as
misleading. In Back to the Future Part II, Marty McFly
finds himself in 2015 where he borrows a futuristic
hoverboard to escape the evil Biff. The film was shot in
1985, and looking 30 years ahead a flying skateboard
seemed, well, highly plausible. But has anyone seen a
kid on a flying skateboard recently?
As disappointed as some of you might be that we
aren’t all holidaying on the moon by now – as The
Jetsons cartoon of the 1980s would have had the more
mature readers of this magazine believe – the folly of
hoping for something better and putting your faith in
others to deliver it for you is even more damaging and
inappropriate in your commercial negotiations, where the
costs can be huge. Negotiation is a process that requires
you to absolutely rely on yourself, not others, to make
your dreams a reality. The adage that “you don’t get what
you deserve, you get what you negotiate,” is one that
all commercial negotiators would do well to remember.
Hoping for the best is a sure-fire way to minimize the
value of any deal for yourself before you’ve even started.
And worse than that, it’s plain lazy. Just like the person
who doesn’t exercise and is surprised to find they’ve
gained 20lbs, when the result of your negotiation isn’t
what you wanted, the blame game may start: “It was out
of my control”, or “It was someone else’s fault.”
But, of course, it wasn’t. It was yours. Your job as
negotiator is to control the total process. This means
ensuring that every step is planned and prepared; that
you are operating inside the other party’s head; that you
have modeled and played through different negotiation
strategies and scenarios in enough time to arrive at an
option which, aligned through your business, offers the
best potential at that moment. But, of course, things
don’t always go to plan, so you will also need to have
prepared options, fallbacks and other routes to take
in case something happens you weren’t prepared for.
Given the need to do all of these things, and more
besides, the sheer notion of simply hoping for a positive
outcome (and by extension doing little or nothing
yourself to make that happen) is unwise and as unlikely
to work out positively for you as the decision by our
friend the wildebeest to take a giant leap of faith from
the banks of the Mara River. Just like him, you’re in
serious danger of getting munched! TNS
37

ASK ALISTAIR
Negotiation expert Alistair White returns
to answer questions from our alumni.
Q: Will the highest value deals of
the future be achieved by the team
with the best algorithms rather
than the best negotiators?
Account Director, Media
A: You may be astonished to
learn that I am not an expert
in artificial intelligence. But
I have done a little desktop
research and come to an
opinion – with the invitation to
others who are better informed
on the subject to tell me I am
talking nonsense.
There are two possible scenarios
here – an algorithm negotiating with
a human and an algorithm negotiating
with an algorithm. For the purposes
of this column, I’ll focus on the
algorithm-human interaction.
The short answer is “no”, and I will
offer a few reasons as to why I’ve come
to that view.
I’ll start with emotional intelligence.
Part of the art of negotiation is the
ability to read the
emotional state of mind
of your counterparty,
because the negotiator’s
fundamental task is
to create satisfaction
irrespective of the
outcome. I am not sure
AI can do that.
Now, consider trust.
Particularly in the later
stages of the Clockface,
trust and integrity of
intention are vital if we are to conclude
agreements that will survive in the
future. Can an algorithm trust? Can it,
itself, be trusted? I’m not convinced.
What about creativity? Many
negotiations reach impasse and are
only resolved by the introduction of
a variable that has not hitherto been
discussed. How would an algorithm deal
with something it had not yet heard of?
Finally, listening. A skilled
negotiator arrives at crucial insights
by listening not just to what is said,
but also to the way it is said, and what
is not said. Can an algorithm listen in
this interpretative sense?
“How would an algorithm
deal with something it had
not yet heard of?
I could go on. Suffice to say I
have no doubt that algorithms could,
currently, outperform humans in certain
negotiations – complex, multi-variable
auctions for example – and I am equally
certain that, as technology develops, the
answer to the question might be very
different in a few years’ time. For the
time being, I’ll put my money on the
human.
Q: My biggest customer is always
making unilateral demands for
rebates, investments and more.
What can I do to counteract this?
Regional Portfolio Manager,
FMCG
A: Never argue about why
you shouldn’t concede to
the demand. That will make
your buyer more insistent on
arguing back about why you
should. Ask, “Why?” Get them
to talk about the underlying
reasons for the demand. If you
understand them, you might be able
to suggest different ways of generating
the same outcome by a different route.
Use the questioning sequence of
Why? How else? What if? to open up
the conversation.
Broaden the agenda. I infer you’d
prefer to operate on the left-hand side
of the Clockface. If so, it’s imperative
you do not allow the negotiation to
focus on one single issue, because
that is de facto a
3 o’clock negotiation.
Make a conditional
proposal. Set out the
conditions under which
you would be prepared
to grant them some or
all of what they
are demanding.
Make it clear the offer
is conditional.
Buy time. This won’t
solve the problem
but it allows you to think and consult
internally. Explain you need to seek
guidance internally, or say this is not
something you have come prepared
to discuss and you need time to think
about it. Occasionally, problems will
resolve naturally over time. But don’t
bank on it.
If you have a question for Alistair and
would like it to be considered for our
next issue, please email it to
alumni@thegappartnership.com
38

THE NEGOTIATION SOCIETY
CROSSWORD
Our fiendishly challenging British-style crossword returns.
ACROSS
9 Philosophy to restrict beer (9)
10 See 24
11 Diverse debts follow victory by
acting king (7)
12 See 20 Down
13 Ways and means computer data
to finally be resolved (5)
14 Peak broadcast of essentially
holographic TV set seems
unlimited (2,7)
16 Better way to choose local tree,
cryptically (9,6)
19 Proposed absurd introductions to
gene editing; disgusted, I’d left (9)
22 Heads of designer babies turned
around ten at Academy showing
17D of their lives (7)
23 Mum and I objectively acquiring
flying one of 4D – it’s a fringe
pursuit (7)
24/10 Bright illiberal detective making
responsive pads (5,5)
24/21 Superior’s tackling antibiotic
resistant tuberculosis initially,
doctor might cure using
these (5,5)
25 Attempting to avoid confrontation
– men lie a lot hiding a fling (9)
DOWN
1/4 Those traveling without conductors
– wood section entertaining,
playing right scales (10, 4)
2 Watch rats running around at first
and dream of the future (8)
3 Some with artificial intelligence
having sources to restrict book (6)
4 See 1
5 Type of military truck mounted
net and turned (3-7)
6 Good ability to notice special
instrument with drone delivery
free, ultimately (5,3)
7 Judge probes with outsiders absent
before anger (6)
8 American watchers, in the main
abbreviated (4)
14 Expedition to heavenly body sounds
like mother’s journey (4,6)
15 Draw around grid, set out ways of
recording hours worked (4-6)
17 Article on bible book includes fine
truths (3,5)
18 “Do eat luv” – freshly made eggs (8)
20/12 Gambling law or alternative –
a major challenge for the
future (6,7)
21 Compliant measure I will
broadcast (6)
22 See 23
23/22 Low number joins graduates
at English out-of-this-world
accommodation (8)
For solutions email
alumni@thegappartnership.com
ILLUSTRATION: WWW.CARTOONSTOCK.COM
"Now you'll have more
time to binge things."
39

© The Gap Partnership, 2019. All rights reserved.