Nomad_Africa_Edition12

AFRICAN CITIES WILL DOUBLE
IN POPULATION BY 2050
africa is not prepared for this urban explosion. By 2025, there will be
100 african cities with more than one million inhabitants each, according
to McKinsey.
Words: ROBERT MUGGAH
africans are moving to
the city. already home
to the world’s
youngest and fastestgrowing
population,
the continent is urbanising
more rapidly than
any other part of the planet. africa’s 1.1 billion
citizens will likely double in number by 2050,
and more than 80% of that increase will occur
in cities, especially informal settlements.
The implications of this turbo-charged growth
are hard to fathom. consider how lagos - already
africa’s largest city - is predicted to expand
by an astonishing 77 people every hour
between now and 2030.
africa is not prepared for this urban explosion.
By 2025, there will be 100 african cities with
more than one million inhabitants each, according
to McKinsey.
That's twice as many as in latin america. runaway
urbanisation and a growing youth
bulge, with most young people lacking
meaningful job prospects, is a time bomb. already
some 70% of africans are under 30.
youngsters account for roughly 20% of the
population, 40% of the workforce and 60% of
the unemployed.
africa is suffering from a major urban infrastructure
gap. annual national public spending
on infrastructure is exceedingly low: an
average of 2% of gDP in 2009 - 2015, compared
to 5.2% in india and 8.8% in china. Not
surprisingly, african cities often succumb to
fragility. Sixty percent of all urbanites live in
over-crowded and under-serviced informal
settlements. around 25-45% walk to work due
to lack of affordable transport. With turbo-urbanisation,
these appalling conditions could
easily deteriorate.
another looming problem is that african cities
are set to expand during a period of unprecedented
climate stress. africa’s urban areas are
likely to suffer disproportionately from climate
change, as the region as a whole is warming
up 1.5 times faster than the global average.
The strain on basic services and natural resource
endowments, as cape Town’s water
crisis shows, is set to increase. if africa does
not find a way to build sustainable cities with
greater access to private capital, then they risk
becoming both unlivable and indebted.
Make no mistake - africa’s future is urban. But
in the next two decades, african cities will
need to do much more, with much less. While
national governments will need to step up
and implement regulations to raise public finance,
african mayors, city residents and businesses
cannot afford to wait. a new mindset
is urgently required. But this first requires facing
up to the scale of the challenge.
MIND THE GAPS
The urban infrastructure deficits are daunting.
africans need to spend between $130-170 billion
annually to meet the continent’s basic infrastructure
needs. yet, the region is already
facing financing shortfalls of $68-$108 billion.
roughly two-thirds of the investments in
urban infrastructure needed by 2050 have yet
to be made.
complicating matters, a majority of current financing
is from the public sector because instability
and regulatory confusion deter
private capital. Total capital investment in
africa between 1980-2011 averaged just 20%
of gDP (as compared to 40% of gDP in the
case of east asia during a period of rapid urbanisation).
closing these gaps could increase
gDP growth per capita by 2.6% per year.
it is not just the urban infrastructure gap, but
the lack of city planning, inefficient land use,
regulatory blockages and vested interests that
are holding african cities back. The result is
sprawling, fragmented and hyper-informal
cities. Not surprisingly, african cities are remarkably
expensive to live in.
according to the World Bank, african cities are
29% more expensive overall than non-african
cities with similar income levels. locals pay a
whopping 100% more for transport, 55% more
for housing, 42% more for transport and 35%
more for food. all of this slows down business,
cutting firm productivity by close to half, while
dramatically increasing the input costs of consumer
goods.
46 | www.nomadafricamag.com | ...Celebrating the world’s richest continent | Issue 12