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Time for an investment that’s worth its weight in gold Buy and hold investment-grade bullion bars and coins in the exact weight and purity you require. Store your precious metals in our secure vault in Guernsey and benefit from no VAT or GST on any of your purchases or our services. excellence in precious metals Gold | Silver | Platinum | Palladium | Call 01481 706767 or visit bullionrock.com/invest Part of the Ravenscroft group of companies BullionRock is the trading name of Ravenscroft Precious Metals Limited (“RPML”) (company number 54550) which has its registered office address at PO Box 222, Level 5, The Market Buildings, Fountain Street, St Peter Port, Guernsey, GY1 4JG. RPML is registered with the Guernsey Financial Services Commission as a Non-Regulated Financial Services Business. 102 En Voyage | Aurigny’s Magazine
Business ALL THAT GLISTERS IS NOT… GOLD ALWAYS BELIEVE IN YOUR SOUL. YOU’VE GOT THE POWER TO KNOW YOU’RE INDESTRUCTIBLE. ALWAYS BELIEVE IN ‘CAUSE YOU ARE GOLD Spandau Ballet, 1983 BY ROBIN NEWBOULD, MANAGING DIRECTOR, BULLIONROCK Brexit, the possibility of “Italeave”, the on-off trade war between the US and China, and mixed messages about inflation and interest rates from the Bank of England, all add up to a muddled political and economic backdrop. Historically, such an environment has been profitable for precious metals. With the recent return to our ranks of Robin Newbould – MD of BullionRock and one of the founders of Ravenscroft in the Channel Islands – it seemed apposite to ask whether it is indeed a good time to own, in Bruno’s words, some “24 karat magic”. Robin, over to you… ‘I often assume that everyone knows what I know about precious metals, but then I remember that some of the “fundamental truths” of investing in gold, silver, platinum and palladium were new to me six years ago when I established the business that is now BullionRock. As someone who can, for fun, boggle my own mind calculating financial mathematics, the world of precious metals is an oasis of simplicity and common sense. The pricing of gold, at least for valuation, is based around a benchmark that is fixed twice daily by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), whilst the moves-up-and-down-all-day price is made in the same manner as, say, the exchange rate for GBP and USD – a ‘spot’ price that reflects market participant supply and demand. The external factors that can usually be found changing the price of gold seem fairly obvious, being the fluctuating state of: • global economics – gold generally does well during global economic slowdown, since it is considered a safe haven, but historically performed less well during boom times • geopolitics – again, gold tends to do well during geopolitical uncertainty, but not as well during times of real (or imagined) stability • the US dollar – the gold price is typically denominated in US dollars and this implies that the exposure gained from buying / selling gold is influenced by the changes in the exchange rate of US dollars compared to other leading currencies and to the base currency of the investor. The strengthening of the US dollar has historically resulted in a decrease in the value of gold • Central Bank activity – these are major holders of gold as a reserve asset. Selling and buying by Central Banks can materially impact the gold price • interest rates – increases in interest rates generally tend to have downward pressure on prices, since the opportunity cost of holding gold, which generates no income, increases; and • inflation – decreases in global inflationary pressures tend to drive demand away from gold and more towards other assets, negatively affecting the price of gold. Conversely, during times of rising inflation, gold prices have, historically, risen, as investors are put off by falling or low real (inflation adjusted) returns from bonds and cash So, now we are all up to speed, back to the question: is this a good time to invest in gold? Well, unfortunately, I have not yet been able to get my hands on the requisite crystal ball, but I do see a world where it could be argued that: • the current health of the world economy is questionable • geopolitics is on the agenda, seeing changes on an almost-daily basis • the US dollar could be set for a tumble as the US trade deficit hits record highs and erodes that currency’s safe-haven status • emerging-market gold reserves have almost doubled in the last 10 years; and • interest rates are forecast to be slow to rise – and might only do so if inflationary pressures take hold Whilst every reader will have their own investment circumstances and objectives to consider, I am always intrigued by those who could afford to have some exposure to gold but decline. After all, what is not to like about a liquid, non-correlated asset held, without counterparty risk, in the exact form requested and available for collection at any time?’ 103
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