Fall 2017 JPI

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While MSG do add some value with their analysis of the effect of ethnic cleavages, there are some significant flaws in their models that limit the usefulness of their results. Mainly, in Models 3 and 4 where MSG include interactive terms, they fail to include all of the terms denoting all possible relationships between the independent variables. According to MSG, the fully-specified model is as follows: Parties = δ0 + δ1 Fragmentation +δ2Concentration +δ3log(magnitude) +δ4 Fragmentation × Concentration ×log(Magnitude) +δ8 Proximity × PresidentialCandidates + ε But, as GBC point out, the actual accurate fully specified model should be the following: Parties = β0 + β1 Fragmentation +β2Concentration +β3log(Magnitude) +β4 Fragmentation × Concentration +β5 ∗ Fragmentation × log(Magnitude) +β6 ∗ Concentration × log(Magnitude) +β7 Fragmentation × Concentration ×log(Magnitude) +β8 Proximity +β9 PresidentialCandidates +β10 Proximity × PresidentialCandidates + ε In MSG’s model they omit Fragmentation X log(Magnitude), Fragmentation X Concentration, Concentration X log(Magnitude), and Presidential Candidates. This is a key error in that when using interactive models, it is essential to include every possible constitutive term. 33 By omitting those four terms, MSG are assuming that those coefficients are approximately zero but there is not any substantial evidence that that is true. Furthermore, in the instance that any of those coefficients are not truly zero, that would cause all of the estimators to be biased and force the inaccurate model to pass through the origin regardless of the data’s true tendencies. Thus, in Table 3 below, I present the results side by side of each model (institutional, sociological, additive, and interactive) using MSG’s original model on the left, and Golder’s corrected models on the right. Note that a corrected version of the purely sociological model is not included because Golder simply corrected some inconsistencies in MSG’s 33 Brambor, Clark, and Golder, African party systems, 2006. JPI Fall 2017, pg. 61
data, which don’t occur here. Firstly, we can see that before MSG omitted the Effective Number of Presidential Candidates variable, and in the corrected fully-specified models I consistently find that Effective Number of Presidential Candidates is positive and significantly correlated with Effective Number of Legislative Parties. This does make sense since generally more candidates indicates a likelihood of more parties in democratic elections. 34 A key difference in Table 3 that negates one of the conclusions drawn by MSG is that while indeed in MSG’s "fully-specified" interactive socio-institutional model, District Magnitude has a significant negative effect on the number of legislative parties, when I add in the missing constitutive terms detailed above, District Magnitude no longer has a significant effect. To investigate the reasons behind this change, I also take into account that the Fragmentation X District Magnitude interaction variable that was not included in MSG’s analysis is essential. Using my new fully-specified Model 4, the coefficient is negative and statistically significant. However, neither the Ethnopolitical Fragmentation variable nor log(District Magnitude) are significant by themselves in the fully-specified interactive model. This implies that District Magnitude does not significantly affect the number of political parties when there is no ethnopolitical fragmentation at all because presumably in that case, the preferences of the population would be relatively uniform throughout. The coefficient of Ethnopolitical Fragmentation alone here is irrelevant because it represents the effect of ethnopolitical fragmentation when the district magnitude is nonexistent. Finally, the significant negative coefficient of the interaction term shows that higher levels of ethnopolitical fragmentation will either increase the number of parties in the system, but by a lesser margin when district magnitude is high or will limit the number of political parties in the legislative system, conditional on a large district magnitude. As GBC point out, "district magnitude matters in this causal story because it is the decisive factor determining electoral system permissiveness." 35 According to MSG, ethnopolitical fragmentation tends to reduce the number of parties overall, however ethnopolitical concentration should counteract this reductive effect. Assuming these two things are true, that would imply that the coefficient on Fragmentation would be negative and the coefficient on Fragmentation X Concentration be positive. However, I do not find evidence that ethnopolitical fragmentation alone would significantly reduce the number of parties in the system in any of the models, nor that the interaction term would be positive. 34 Kenneth Benoit "District magnitude, electoral formula, and the number of parties." 203-224. 35 Ibid, 5. JPI Fall 2017, pg. 62
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Fall 2017 Journal of Political Inqu
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EDITORIAL BOARD ALINA ZHENG Editor
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President to continue to build rela
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economic cooperation between the se
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Secretary Jacob Lew stated that Ira
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Page 15 and 16: ights. Nevertheless, I would argue
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Page 19 and 20: eadiness to deploy armed force in t
Page 21 and 22: The Worthiness of Citizenship The S
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Page 27 and 28: In all of the aforementioned accoun
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Page 33 and 34: who are subject to an imminent thre
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Page 47 and 48: order, Chinese “exports and impor
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Page 51 and 52: to challenge this powerful hegemon.
Page 53 and 54: The Puzzle of Ethnopolitical Fragme
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Page 61: Table 2: Determinants of Effective
Page 65: CONCLUSION Overall, the findings of
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Fall 2017 JPI

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