Fall 2017 JPI

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Table 1: Determinants of Effective Number of Electoral Parties (1) (2) (3) (4) log(District Magnitude) -0.351 -0.0970 -5.908 ∗∗∗ (-0.96) (-0.25) (-5.34) Proximity of Presidential -5.174 ∗∗∗ -4.448 ∗∗ -2.413 ∗ and Legislative Elections (-4.02) (-3.29) (-2.15) Proximity 1.928 ∗∗∗ 1.589 ∗∗∗ 1.130 ∗∗ X Effective Number of Presidential Candidates (5.07) (3.77) (3.45) Ethnopolitical Fragmentation 5.649 0.240 -8.570 ∗∗∗ (1.63) (0.07) (-4.94) Ethnopolitical Group Concentration 5.858 ∗∗∗ 3.200 ∗ -1.746 ∗∗ (4.00) (2.03) (-2.89) Ethnopolitical Fragmentation -7.376 ∗∗ -3.381 X Concentration (-3.38) (-1.45) District Magnitude × Fragmentation × Concentration 3.490 ∗∗∗ (5.26) Constant 3.662 ∗∗∗ -0.793 2.311 13.66 ∗∗∗ (6.45) (-0.42) (1.06) (7.17) Observations 53 53 53 53 R 2 0.34 0.27 0.46 0.65 F 8.598 6.177 6.488 14.01 t statistics in parentheses ∗ p < 0.05, ∗∗ p < 0.01, ∗∗∗ p < 0.001 This three-way interaction term would seem to prove MSG’s theory right that district magnitude is only significant when in interaction with fragmentation and concentration. As in MSG, for my purely institutional model and additive model, District Magnitude did not significantly correlate, but with the "fully specified" Model 4, when both institutional and sociological interactions are taken into account, District Magnitude and District Magnitude X Fragmentation X Concentration have a significant coefficient. According to MSG, "large district magnitudes tend to reduce the number of parties if ethnopolitical fragmentation is high and ethnopolitical concentration is low, but they tend to increase the number of parties if both fragmentation and concentration are high." 32 This theory seems to hold with these results since for Model 4 in both branches, the coefficient of District Magnitude alone is negative, while the coefficient for the interactive term is positive. Moreover, similar to MSG’s results, my variable for log(District Magnitude) is insignificant until I use the interactive model, verifying that without also including the factor of ethnopolitical cleavages, the effect of log(District Magnitude) is not foreseeable. 32 Ibid, 387. JPI Fall 2017, pg. 59
Table 2: Determinants of Effective Number of Legislative Parties (1) (2) (3) (4) log(District Magnitude) -0.126 0.0198 -2.672 ∗∗∗ (-0.61) (0.09) (-4.05) Proximity of Presidential -3.366 ∗∗∗ -3.647 ∗∗∗ -2.059 ∗∗ and Legislative Elections (-4.63) (-4.74) (-3.07) Proximity 1.283 ∗∗∗ 1.261 ∗∗∗ 0.822 ∗∗∗ X Effective Number of Presidential Candidates (5.97) (5.26) (4.22) Ethnopolitical Fragmentation 3.402 -0.677 -1.917 (1.53) (-0.33) (-1.85) Ethnopolitical Group Concentration 2.096 ∗ 0.0771 -0.823 ∗ (2.23) (0.09) (-2.28) Ethnopolitical Fragmentation -2.410 0.656 X Concentration (-1.72) (0.49) District Magnitude X Fragmentation 1.701 ∗∗∗ X Concentration (4.30) Constant 2.773 ∗∗∗ 0.103 2.387 6.103 ∗∗∗ (8.65) (0.09) (1.92) (5.37) Observations 53 53 53 53 R 2 0.43 0.18 0.52 0.65 F 12.11 3.623 8.251 14.53 t statistics in parentheses ∗ p < 0.05, ∗∗ p < 0.01, ∗∗∗ p < 0.001 JPI Fall 2017, pg. 60
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Fall 2017 Journal of Political Inqu
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EDITORIAL BOARD ALINA ZHENG Editor
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President to continue to build rela
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economic cooperation between the se
Page 9 and 10: Secretary Jacob Lew stated that Ira
Page 11 and 12: ultimate authority and the ability
Page 13 and 14: statements approved at home. Under
Page 15 and 16: ights. Nevertheless, I would argue
Page 17 and 18: configurations have formed conflict
Page 19 and 20: eadiness to deploy armed force in t
Page 21 and 22: The Worthiness of Citizenship The S
Page 23 and 24: like its predecessors. It also prom
Page 25 and 26: eginning of the JDP rule in 2002, 1
Page 27 and 28: In all of the aforementioned accoun
Page 29 and 30: Amid the Litani River and the Blue
Page 31 and 32: and invaded Lebanon again in 1982 u
Page 33 and 34: who are subject to an imminent thre
Page 35 and 36: unanimously adopted the renewal of
Page 37 and 38: The Times of European Identity Alli
Page 39 and 40: to build the European Economic Comm
Page 41 and 42: “forgotten” history, not only c
Page 43 and 44: state, as a strong state containing
Page 45 and 46: The essay will be divided into five
Page 47 and 48: order, Chinese “exports and impor
Page 49 and 50: However, China does not own a globa
Page 51 and 52: to challenge this powerful hegemon.
Page 53 and 54: The Puzzle of Ethnopolitical Fragme
Page 55 and 56: alternative analysis where two meth
Page 57 and 58: single population count. 24 This le
Page 59: not every one of these types of soc
Page 63 and 64: data, which don’t occur here. Fir
Page 65: CONCLUSION Overall, the findings of
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Fall 2017 JPI

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