Food Consumption Patterns Part 2

97
Market Size
To arrive at estimates of potential market size we drew on the random 632 respondent Consumer
Survey. The logic behind the calculation was that a person likely to purchase a peanut based RUTF
is one who,
A) Buys prepackaged snack foods
B) Eats peanuts or peanut butter: calibrated to provide a range of estimates based on the
frequency that a person reported buying peanuts and/or peanut butter. Specifically,
1. eats peanuts or peanut butter at least daily
2. eats peanuts or peanut butter at least once per week
Figure 61: Venn Diagram for Market Size Calculation
Eats
Peanut
s or
Peanut
Butter
RUTF
Buyers
Buys
packag
e snack
foods
Our calculations in Table 26, following page, are based on two additional assumptions,
1) That events A and B are above are independent, meaning that the probability that a person
eats peanuts butter does not change the probability that the person eats packaged snacks.
2) That children are likely to eat peanuts and/or peanut butter at least as frequently as adults—
something evident in the data shown earlier on.
With these assumptions, we then multiplied the resulting probability figures (A*B) by the
population for each of the following sample sets,
a) Port-au-Prince metropolitan area
b) All of urban Haiti
c) All of rural Haiti
d) All of Haiti
Caveats and additional information
We could have eliminated the population under 3 years of age, but the fact is that if it is known
RUTFs are high value foods then we can assume from the use of other foods that they may be used
in infant foods as well as for toddlers.
Not included in the calculations are that,
96% of those interviewed said they would be more likely to purchase a prepackaged
product if they knew that it had more vitamins than competing brands. This adds support
to the likelihood that RUTFs will sell.
85% percent of the respondents said that they would purchase the peanut paste shown
during the course of the interview