Aviation and the Global Atmosphere

Aviation and the Global Atmosphere
Aviation and the Global Atmosphere
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Figure 2-8: Estimates of northern mid-latitude total ozone column changes (%) from NO x emission in the
troposphere and stratosphere and aerosol emissions in the stratosphere from present subsonic aviation. The
height of the rectangular bars indicates the mid-range estimate; the error bars represent an estimate of the twothirds
probability uncertainty range (i.e., a 67% chance that the true value falls within this range) as determined
from either the dispersion among global model results or from consideration of process understanding.
Independent of the specified uncertainty range, we judge the state of scientific understanding regarding aviation's
NO x and particle effects to be fair and poor, respectively. This evaluation is based on the level of consensus in
the scientific literature and the amount of evidence available to support the estimates and their uncertainties.
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