Aviation and the Global Atmosphere

Aviation and the Global Atmosphere
probably less plausible. The fleet size and infrastructure implications suggest radical developments that are likely to be beyond the scope of changes observed in the
industry thus far (or anticipated for the future). Similarly, the low-growth scenarios-though plausible in terms of achievability-give traffic estimates that are likely to be
exceeded given the present state of the industry and planned developments. Although all of the FESG scenarios discount the possibility of truly radical developments
in technology over the next 50 years, they are considered to fall within a plausible range of outcomes and suggest achievable developments for the industry.
The 3-D gridded output from scenarios Fa-Fe (with T1 and T2 technology scenarios) and from DTI are suitable for use as input to chemical transport models and may
be used to calculate the effect of aviation CO 2 emissions. Scenarios Eab and Edh are suitable for use in Chapter 6 to calculate the effect of CO 2 emissions as
sensitivity analyses because the latter scenario projects CO 2 emissions levels from aviation that are 2.2 times greater in 2050 than the highest of the FESG scenarios.
Table 9-29 provides a summary of all of the long-term scenarios examined in the chapter.
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