Aviation and the Global Atmosphere

Aviation and the Global Atmosphere
Aviation and the Global Atmosphere
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9.6.6.2. Airport and Infrastructure Implications
Other reports in this collection
From the implied 2050 fleet sizes, it is likely that more airports will be required to support the growth in traffic and flight operations. The number of new airports required
will depend on the total fleet, the number of airports now capable of handling jet operations, and the number of gates available at each airport. Table 9-26 shows the
number of new airports required, assuming the lowest and highest growth cases for the passenger fleet and total fleet (from model by Campbell-Hill Aviation Group,
1998). The present inventory of airports was taken as the number of airports now having one or more jet departures per day, thereby obviously capable of handling
large jet transport aircraft, and the total number of airports in the OAG-that is, airports with scheduled air service (many not presently capable of handling large jet
transport aircraft). For example, if all of the airports now having one or more jet departures per day had 15 or more gates, no new airports would be needed to handle
the fleet in the lowest growth case. Conversely, the highest growth case would require more than 1,300 new airports of 15 gates each (two new airports per month for
60 years) even if all 3,750 airports now listed in the OAG had 15 gates and were capable of handling large jet transport aircraft (which they do not and are not). This
analysis ignores infrastructure location and the problems associated with its provision. In populous parts of the world, where civil aviation is established, the addition of
airport capacity is often difficult given local environmental pressures such developments create. However, in developing countries, where much of the future traffic
growth is anticipated, new infrastructure might encounter less environmental sensitivity and therefore be more readily provided. Nonetheless, the infrastructure projects
required to satisfy the highest growth scenarios are unprecedented in scope.
9.6.6.3. Fuel Availability
All of the 2050 scenarios imply large increases in fuel consumption by aircraft. In the highest FESG scenario (Fe2), aircraft fuel consumption increases from 139 to 772
Tg yr -1 over the period 1992 to 2050. In the highest EDF scenario (Eeh), the increase is from 179 Tg yr -1 in 1990 to 2,297 Tg yr -1 in 2050. Because both scenarios are
based on the IS92e scenario, it is appropriate to compare these figures to total energy use in the IS92e scenario. According to scenario Fe2, aircraft will account for
13% of the total transportation energy usage in 2050 and require 15% of the world's liquid fossil fuel production. The EDF scenario (Eeh) implies that aircraft account
for 39% of the transportation energy usage and require 45% of the world's liquid fuel production. These comparisons assume that aircraft do not use biomass fuels or
fuels derived from natural gas.
Under either scenario, the world will be straining the limits of conventional oil resources by 2050. Total remaining resources of conventional petroleum, discovered and
undiscovered, have been estimated at between one trillion (Campbell and Laherrere, 1998) and two trillion barrels (Masters et al., 1994-based on the optimistic 5%
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