Aviation and the Global Atmosphere

Aviation and the Global Atmosphere
● Subsonic aircraft supply-projected demand (no supersonics)
● A short- and long-haul market share
● Future market functions as does the present day (i.e., no assumptions regarding wider deregulation are made)
● Unconstrained demand
● Aircraft retired at an average age of 25 years (reduced productivity from 20-30 years)
● Aircraft productivity to improve by an average of 0.75% annually.
The assumption regarding lack of constraints requires comment. Today's civil aviation market is constrained only by the practical limitations of airport capacity and
access restrictions, airspace restrictions, and economic restraint resulting from taxation, charges, and so forth that affect ticket price. Any constraints in the future,
whether to address environmental problems or as a result of government policy, will affect or limit demand and therefore affect the emissions burden from civil aviation.
In contrast, measures such as the introduction of advanced air traffic control systems may improve the efficiency of traffic management (see Chapter 8) but could lead
to a traffic increase, with the consequence of increasing emissions from aircraft. Neither the scenarios nor the analysis of their impact have examined such possibilities
because there would be too many permutations of possibilities to define a scenario acceptable to all.
Table 9-24 summarizes the estimated traffic in RPK x 10 9 for five of the scenarios. The global fleets (numbers of aircraft of all types) appropriate for each traffic
estimate are also given.
In addition, it is necessary to consider the extent to which the freighter fleet might grow. An independent study was performed using figures for the current inventory of
freighters and extrapolating the Boeing freighter forecast from 2015 at two growth rates-5.1% (high) and 2.5% (low). Assuming the high growth rate, the freighter fleet
could grow to approximately 19,000 aircraft by 2050. The low-growth rate would require 8,000 freighter aircraft (Campbell-Hill Aviation Group, 1998). This calculation
results in the adjusted commercial fleet profile given in Table 9-25.
Table of contents | Previous page | Next page
Other reports in this collection
http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/aviation/145.htm (4 von 4)08.05.2008 02:44:34
IPCC Homepage