Aviation and the Global Atmosphere

Aviation and the Global Atmosphere
9.6.6. Plausibility Checks
Table 9-27: Required yearly delivery rates of aircraft implied by scenarios.
Total Aircraft Deliveries (in these years)
Year Eab Eeh Fa1,2 DTI
2020 1,106 1,667 813 1,012
2030 1,072 1,933 686 945
2040 1,566 3,058 931 1,354
2050 1,714 3,831 948 1,440
Although none of the long-term scenarios reviewed here is considered impossible, some may be more plausible than others. We devised three simple checks to
assess plausibility. The first estimated the fleet size required to carry projected traffic in 2050; the second examined implications for airport and infrastructure; and the
third examined implications for kerosene demand. These plausibility checks represent an initial examination of the implications of the scenarios and are intended to
illustrate possible consequences of traffic estimates resulting from the different scenarios. It must be emphasized that the fleet numbers produced by this analysis are
approximate and are provided for comparative purposes only.
9.6.6.1. Fleet Size
Table 9-29: Summary data from long-term scenarios.
Table 9-28: Sensitivity of fleet size to aircraft capacity.
Aircraft Size Fleet at 2050 - Total Aircraft
Growth Assumption 1% yr-1 2% yr-1 Eeh scenario 69,275 42,448
Fa1,2 scenario 21,209 11,913
Traffic Calculated Calculated Calculated Calculated
Scenario Scenario Demand Fuel Burned CO2 (as C) NOx (as NO2) Fleet EI(NOx) http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/aviation/145.htm (2 von 4)08.05.2008 02:44:34