Aviation and the Global Atmosphere

Aviation and the Global Atmosphere
Aviation and the Global Atmosphere
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9.6.5. Infrastructure and Fuel Availability Assumptions
Other reports in this collection
All of the long-term scenarios reviewed in this chapter were developed with the implicit assumption that sufficient system infrastructure and capacity will be available to
handle the demand in an unconstrained fashion (infrastructure and capacity are defined for airports as runways, terminals, gates and aprons, roads, etc., and for
airways as air navigation services, air traffic control, etc.). However, lack of infrastructure development may well impede future aviation growth. Lack of infrastructure
will result in congestion and delay, additional fuel burn (in the air and on the ground), higher operating costs, higher ticket prices, and reduced service.
In some parts of the world, particularly in North America and Europe, the airway and airports system is currently operating under constraints that limit its ability to
provide service. These constraints are likely to become more acute in the future as the demand for aviation services continues to grow. Congestion resulting from
capacity constraints impairs the economic and environmental performance of airlines and the entire aviation system. To accommodate future demand, physical and
technological infrastructure must be upgraded and expanded. In many areas, however, strong local pressures (especially related to noise created by aircraft
movements) have constrained development of new airports and capacity improvements at existing airports. It is therefore important to note that the traffic forecasts
reviewed in this chapter are all unconstrained forecasts that do not evaluate system capacity constraints when estimating future traffic growth.
Aviation also depends on petroleum fuels. For the past 50 years, known reserves of petroleum have continued to expand to satisfy 20-30 years of predicted demand.
Over the short-term future, little change in the demand/supply situation is expected. Oil companies predict continued supply of their raw material, and kerosene
supplies should have similar availability as the present day. Despite the forecast for increasing demand, oil prices are projected to rise only moderately over the next
20 years (Hutzler and Andersen, 1997).
Over the period of these scenarios (to 2050), estimates of availability are less clear, but there is a general view that the oil industry will continue to meet demand
(Rogner, 1997). There are, however, less optimistic views for oil production, with some predictions of a production decline occurring within the next decade (Campbell
and Laherrere, 1998). The long-term scenarios assessed for this report implicitly assume continued availability of fuel at moderate prices. This is a key assumption for
all scenarios because large increases in the price of fuel and/or shortages in supply would act to restrain demand for passenger and cargo air transport.
All of the scenarios ignore (in their baseline assumptions) possible changes in service patterns or infrastructure that a future HSCT might require. The effects of an
HSCT fleet are considered in Section 9.5.
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