Aviation and the Global Atmosphere

Aviation and the Global Atmosphere
and aviation demand will increase rapidly when a poor nation experiences an economic boom
and per capita income increases. Depending on the income distribution, there can be significant
demand for aviation even in countries with very low per capita incomes (Atkinson, 1975). As
incomes rise and seat prices (as well as cargo costs) fall, growth in aviation demand will result
from the penetration of aviation services into lower income brackets (Boeing, 1993). The civil
personal passenger sector experiences logistic expansion toward a time-varying capacity level
proportional to the nation's population (the model does not account for possible feedback
relationships between GNP and population). The military and general aviation sectors do not
experience logistic expansion; both sectors grow nominally, at the same rate as global GNP. The
mathematical basis of the model and further details on the assumptions are given by Vedantham
and Oppenheimer (1994, 1998).
The base-demand and high-demand sets include expected start date for market expansion,
market capacity levels, and maturity period length. These assumptions for the two demand sets
reflect implicit assumptions about diverse social factors, including travel trends in developing
countries (Gould, 1996), penetration of future telecommunications technologies, and
development of competing modes of transportation. Assumptions on start dates of aviation
market expansion for rapidly developing economies, slowly developing economies, and post-
Communist economies reflect EDF's own assessment of near-term economic expectations and
were not made in relation to IPCC scenarios. Prior to the start date, demand is assumed to grow
Figure 9-20: EDF global aviation demand
projections.
nominally, at the same rate as global GNP. The base-demand and high-demand sets include assumptions on market capacity levels based on multiples of 2 (basedemand)
and 3 (high-demand) relative to the 1990 demand levels for Economic Group 1 (OECD less Japan), because these markets are closest to maturity today.
EDF's analysis of the history of the U.S. domestic market concluded that there was approximately a 70-year period from start of market expansion to maturity. The
model assumes that nations that are building their airport infrastructure today may well attain market maturity faster because they will benefit from technological
improvements and some fraction of their populace will be more familiar with lifestyle and business habits that incorporate aviation. Another region-specific assumption
was that markets in the post-Communist economies may mature faster because they have undergone industrialization.
Table 9-19: Excerpt of EDF results-demand, fuel use, CO 2 , % of global CO 2 , and NO x .
IPCC Scenario Factor 1990
Year
2000 2015 2025 2050
IS92a Base (Eab) Demand (109 RPK) 2,171 3,629 6,115 9,339 23,256
Fuel Use (Tg) 179 258 374 544 1,143
CO2 (Tg C) 154 222 322 468 983
http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/aviation/140.htm (2 von 5)08.05.2008 02:44:27
Percentage of Global CO 2 2.1% 2.6% 3.8% 6.8%
NO x (Tg) 1.96 2.57 3.28 4.42 7.88