Aviation and the Global Atmosphere

Aviation and the Global Atmosphere
same as present-day values, even for larger aircraft types (600+ seats) that are assumed to enter service beginning in about 2005. All traffic is assumed to be carried
by a subsonic aircraft fleet (i.e., no HSCT would be operating by 2050). The model forecasts traffic growth to be positive throughout the scenario, but growth rate
declines during the period. Decadal capacity growth rates-actual and forecast-are given in Table 9-14. The traffic forecast includes civil and freight operations as well
as civil charter and business jet traffic but excludes military aviation activity and possible future supersonic operations.
Fuel usage was determined for the base year fleet from the capacity offered in that year (ASKs) and the fleet's traffic efficiency (ASK per kg fuel). A fuel efficiency trend
suggested by Greene (1992) and modified by DTI was included as a scenario parameter, as given in Table 9-15.
Table 9-18: Definition of regional economic groups in the EDF model.
Group Members
1 OECD members, except Japan
2 Asian newly industrialized countries (NICs), Japan
3 China and the rest of Asia
4 Africa, Latin America, Middle East
5 Former Soviet Union (FSU), Eastern Europe
The traffic efficiency of the fleet over the scenario period was estimated to range from 30 ASK kg -1 in the base year 1992 to 48 ASK kg -1 in 2050 (a 60% improvement).
This estimate was based on the performance of existing aircraft types and forecasts of the type and number of aircraft (categorized by seat band and technology level)
that might be flying in 2050. Future aircraft types included size developments to 799 seats.
A major scenario element was the NOx reduction technology assumption. Current technology will allow engines to achieve reductions of around 30% below the current
certification level (CAEP/2 standards). The basis of the technology scenario was that NOx regulations would be made considerably more stringent than today and that
the manufacturing industry would develop appropriate technology solutions. This development was modeled by assuming that from 1992:
● CAEP/2 certification standard applies to all new production from 2000
● 30% reduction in ICAO recommended limits from CAEP/2 in 2005
● 60% reduction from CAEP/2 phased in equally over 8 years from 2035.
With a fleet development trend determined by the capacity forecast, the rate of introduction of the scenario above implies a global fleet emissions index trend that is as
compatible with the relatively modest fuel efficiency assumption given in Table 9-16. The fleet EI(NO x ) of 7.0 implies widespread use of ultra-low NO x technology
(Section 7.5). The total calculated fuel burned and emissions for 2050 under the DTI/ANCAT scenario are given in Table 9-17.
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