Aviation and the Global Atmosphere

Aviation and the Global Atmosphere
in airline schedule databases such as the OAG. Fuel burned and emissions from aviation in these regions were estimated individually and projected to 2015 (Mortlock
and Van Alystyne, 1998), then extended to 2050 (CAEP/4-FESG, 1998).
9.4.1.3. FESG Emissions Scenario Results
Results of calculations of fuel burned and NO x emissions for the year 2050 based on the long-term scenarios described above are given in Table 9-13. The FESG
complete scenarios are identified below and in the remainder of this chapter by combining the demand scenario (e.g., Fa) with the technology scenario number (e.g.,
Fa1, Fe2).
9.4.2. DTI 2050 Scenarios
The DTI projection for air traffic and emissions for 2050 (Newton and Falk, 1997) has been developed from the DTI traffic and fleet forecast demand model, in
conjunction with data from the ANCAT/EC2 inventory. The forecast model was developed from DTI's global and regional traffic forecast models for passenger and
freight traffic. Fuel consumption trends were estimated with a fleet fuel efficiency model, and fleet emissions performance were estimated on the basis of assumed
regulatory change. Finally, appropriate fuel and emissions factors were calculated to estimate 2050 figures from the base year; these factors were then applied to the
1992 ANCAT/EC2 emissions inventory to produce gridded results for the 2050 scenario.
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Table 9-14: Actual and forecast global capacity growth rates used in the DTI model.
Year ASK Annual Global Growth Rate (%)
1994 5.36
2000 5.16
2010 4.82
2020 3.62
2030 3.01
2040 2.49
2050 1.72
Table 9-15: Assumed annual improvements in fuel efficiency in DTI model.
Year Annual Improvement in Fuel Efficiency (%)
1991-2000 1.3 (Greene, 1992)
2001-2010 1.3 (Greene, 1992)