Aviation and the Global Atmosphere

Aviation and the Global Atmosphere
Aviation and the Global Atmosphere
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9.4.1.2. FESG Technology Projections
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Calculations of fuel burned and NO x emissions produced by the 2050 scheduled fleet were made by applying projections of overall improvement in fleet fuel efficiency
and emission characteristics to regional traffic flows and summing the results. These projections were created from technology-level estimates for new aircraft over
time made by a working group of the International Coordinating Council of Aerospace Industries Associations (ICCAIA) (Sutkus, 1997); they are discussed in Section
7.5.5. A "fleet rollover" model was used to project a fleet average fuel efficiency trend, using characteristics of the present-day fleet and traffic demand from the FESG
scenarios (Greene and Meisenheimer, 1997). The ICCAIA projections were made for two technology scenarios. The first scenario assumes that fuel efficiency and
NO x reduction will be considered in the design of future aircraft in a manner similar to the current design philosophy. The second technology scenario assumes a more
aggressive NO x reduction design strategy that will result in smaller improvements in fuel efficiency. The assumptions associated with the two technology scenarios are
given in Table 9-11. The basis for projections of aircraft emissions made by FESG for the year 2050 was the 3-D NASA emissions scenarios for the year 2015
discussed in Section 9.3.2. The NASA 2015 emissions inventory was factored on the basis of the product of the ratios of regional traffic (as departures), fleet fuel
efficiency, and fleet EI(NO x ) as calculated for 2050 over the same values in 2015. For all flights in a given region:
NOx Emissions2050 = NOx Emissions2015 (regional traffic2050 / regional traffic2015 )
(fleet fuel efficiency 2050 / fleet fuel efficiency 2015 )
(fleet EI(NO x ) 2050 / fleet EI(NO x ) 2015 )
Figure 9-18 shows the trend for average new production and fleet average fuel efficiency as a function of time, derived from ICCAIA inputs and the fleet rollover model
for the FESG high-demand traffic growth scenario. The average NOx emission index for the scheduled fleet over the same time period is shown in Figure 9-19. The
2050 fleet average values used in the calculation of emissions from scheduled traffic as well as the baseline 2015 value are given in Table 9-12 (Sutkus, 1997). Fleet
fuel efficiency is predicted to improve by about 30% between 2015 and 2050. Traffic in the FSU and the People's Republic of China has not historically been reported
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