Aviation and the Global Atmosphere

Aviation and the Global Atmosphere
or 2; see Section 9.4.1.2), form the complete designator for the FESG scenarios used
throughout the rest of this report.
Global traffic from the model projections was apportioned over 45 regional traffic flows with a
separate market share model because certain regions grow faster than others, and the correct
distribution of traffic is important in the calculation of the effects of emissions on the atmosphere.
In this procedure, regional traffic flows were expressed as a share of the global market; using the
market share and historical growth patterns ensures consistency between regional flows and the
global forecast. The underlying assumption of this procedure is that each regional share
approaches its ultimate share of the total market asymptotically. Mature markets tend to have
declining shares approaching an asymptotic value, whereas developing markets tend to increase
their shares. Adjustments of traffic flows were made so that the "top-down" traffic projections of
the FESG global model were matched by a reasonable "bottom-up" distribution of regional traffic
flows. These traffic flows include all traffic in all regions, and regional variations in growth rates
are highlighted. Factors that affect the operations of military and general aviation aircraft were
also estimated, and projections were made of the growth of these sectors (CAEP/4-FESG, 1998).
Table 9-11: ICCAIA NO x and fuel-efficiency technology assumptions for 2050.
Technology Scenario Fuel Efficiency Increase by 2050 LTO NO x Levels
Design for fuel efficiency and NO x reduction
Design for aggressive NO x reduction
http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/aviation/138.htm (4 von 6)08.05.2008 02:44:24
Average of production aircraft will be 40-50%
better relative to 1997 levels
Average of production aircraft will be 30-40%
better relative to 1997 levels
Table 9-12: Projected scheduled fleet fuel efficiency (Sutkus, 1997).
Figure 9-19: Fleet average trends in EI(NO x ) showing
projections for the two ICCAIA technology scenarios.
Scheduled Fleet Fuel
Efficiency (ASK kg-1 Fuel)
2015 NASA Inventory 41.8
Fleet average will be 10-30% below CAEP/2 limit
by 2050; fleet average EI(NO x ) = 15.5 in 2050
Average of production aircraft will be 30-50%
below CAEP/2 limit by 2020 and 50-70% below
CAEP/2 limit by 2050; fleet average