Aviation and the Global Atmosphere

Aviation and the Global Atmosphere
This process results in an estimate of fuel burn and NO x emissions for the base year and forecast fleet using the same methodology; 1992-2015 fuel and NO x growth
factors are thereby calculated. The growth factors were applied to the ANCAT/EC2 base year gridded fuel and NO x estimates to provide a 2015 gridded forecast.
The methods used to project civil aviation traffic demand for the DLR 2015 inventory were based on regional growth factors calculated by DTI. Thus, the DLR 2015
forecast differs from the ANCAT/EC2 forecast only in that the base year inventory is slightly different because of the different fuel and profiling methodology and the
aircraft generic types. Thus, in the comparison of results, ANCAT and DLR 2015 forecasts are not assumed to be different because the DLR forecast is essentially an
application of the DTI/ANCAT forecast.
Table 9-4: Calculated fuel and emissions from NASA, ANCAT, and DLR inventories.
NASA
1976
NASA
1984
NASA
1992
ANCAT
1992
DLR
1992
NASA
2015
ANCAT
2015
Calculated Fuel Burned (Tg)
Scheduled 45.83 64.17 94.84 252.73
Charter 8.47 9.34 6.57 13.50
FSU/China 6.05 7.43 8.77 15.79
General Aviation 4.04 5.62 3.68 6.03
Civil Subtotal 64.38 86.56 113.85 114.20 112.24 288.05 272.32 270.50
Military 35.66 29.76 25.55 17.08 17.10 20.59 14.54 14.50
Global Tota
Calculated CO2 Emissions (Tg C)
100.04 116.31 139.41 131.3 129.34 308.64 287.86 285.00
Scheduled 39.41 55.18 81.56 217.35
Charter 7.28 8.03 5.65 11.61
FSU/China 5.20 6.39 7.54 13.58
General Aviation 3.47 4.83 3.16 5.18
Civil Subtotal 55.36 74.44 97.91 98.22 96.52 247.72 234.21 232.63
Military 30.67 25.59 21.98 14.68 14.71 17.71 12.50 12.47
Global Total
Calculated NOx Emission (Tg as NO2 )
86.03 100.03 119.89 112.92 111.23 265.43 246.71 245.10
Scheduled 0.50 0.79 1.23
Charter 0.09 0.11 0.09
FSU/China 0.04 0.06 0.06
http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/aviation/135.htm (4 von 5)08.05.2008 02:44:18
DLR
2015