Aviation and the Global Atmosphere

Aviation and the Global Atmosphere
Aviation and the Global Atmosphere
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
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Three-dimensional (latitude, longitude, altitude) global inventories of civil and military aircraft fuel burned and emissions have been developed for the United States
National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) for the years 1976, 1984, and 1992, and by the European Abatement of Nuisances Caused by Air Transport
(ANCAT)/European Commission (EC) Working Group and the Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR) for 1991/92. For 1992, the results of the inventory
calculations are in good agreement, with total fuel used by aviation calculated to be 129.3 Tg (DLR), 131.2 Tg (ANCAT), and 139.4 Tg (NASA). Total emissions of NOx (as NO2 ) in 1992 were calculated to range from 1.7 Tg (NASA) to 1.8 Tg (ANCAT and DLR).
Forecasts of air travel demand and technology developed by NASA and ANCAT for 2015 have been used to create three-dimensional (3-D) data sets of fuel burn and
NO x emissions for purposes of modeling the near-term effects of aircraft. The NASA 2015 forecast results in a global fuel burn of 309 Tg, with a NO x emission of 4.1
Tg (as NO 2 ); the global emission index, EI(NO x ) (g NO x /kg fuel), is 13.4. In contrast, the ANCAT 2015 forecast results in lower values-a global fuel burn of 287 Tg, an
emission of 3.5 Tg of NO x , and a global emission index of 12.3. The differences arise from the distribution of air travel demand and technology assumptions.
Long-term emission scenarios for CO 2 and NO x from subsonic aviation in 2050 have been constructed by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)
Forecasting and Economic Support Group (FESG); the United Kingdom Department of Trade and Industry (DTI); and the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF), whose
projections extend to 2100. The FESG and EDF scenarios used the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) IS92 scenarios for economic growth to project
future air traffic demand, though with different approaches to the relative importance of gross domestic product (GDP) and population. Each group also makes different
assumptions about projected improvements in fleet fuel efficiency and NO x reduction technology. In addition, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has
projected emissions from a "high speed" sector that includes aviation, and the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) has published a projection of aviation emissions for
the year 2041.
All future scenarios were constructed by assuming that the necessary infrastructure (e.g., airports, air traffic control) will be developed as needed and that fuel supplies
will be available. System capacity constraints, if any, have not been evaluated.
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