Aviation and the Global Atmosphere

Aviation and the Global Atmosphere
The RF uncertainties from different perturbations have been determined by different methods; potential errors in individual components may not be independent of one
another, and the error bars may not represent Gaussian statistics. The uncertainty ranges for the totals in Figures 6-14b and 6-15b do represent a 2/3 probability range
as for the individual components. The uncertainty estimate for the total radiative forcing (without additional cirrus) is calculated directly from the individual components
as the square root of the sums of the squares of the upper and lower ranges. There is a further issue on confidence levels that is not quantified here-namely, the
accuracy of representing the climate perturbation by the sum of RF values that are global means.
Overall, addition of the best values for RF provides a single best estimate for the total. The uncertainty ranges for individual impacts can be used to assess whether
they are potentially major or trivial components and to make a subjective judgment of confidence in the summed RF.
Table of contents | Previous page | Next page
Other reports in this collection
http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/aviation/084.htm (2 von 2)08.05.2008 02:43:13
IPCC Homepage