Aviation and the Global Atmosphere

Aviation and the Global Atmosphere
Aviation and the Global Atmosphere
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6.5. Relation between Radiative Forcing and Climate Change
6.5.1. Radiative Forcing and Limits of the Concept
In Sections 6.3 and 6.4 we have reported radiative forcing calculations for various aspects of
aircraft-induced perturbations to radiatively active substances. One of the basic ideas behind this
calculation was the validity of the concept of RF as a quantitative predictor for climate change
(see Section 6.2.1). We implicitly assume that contributions from individual perturbations to the
change in global mean surface temperature are additive, at least as a first-order approximation.
The radiative forcing concept requires a quasi-constant climate sensitivity parameter l within the
same model for different types of RF and different magnitudes of RF. This assumption holds for
changes in most of the well-mixed greenhouse gases and for variations in solar irradiance (e.g.,
Hansen et al., 1984b; Shine et al., 1995; Hansen et al., 1997b; Roeckner et al., 1999). As noted
in previous IPCC reports (e.g., IPCC, 1996), there are limitations to the applicability of the
radiative forcing concept, especially for RFs that are highly variable geographically or seasonally
(i.e., typical of aircraft perturbations).
As a clear example of large spatial differences in radiative forcing, the annual mean radiative
imbalance as a function of latitude is shown in Figure 6-9 for the big four RFs for subsonic
aviation in 1992. Whereas the radiative imbalances from CO 2 (positive) and CH4 (negative) are
nearly uniform from south pole to north pole, those from O3 (peaking at 0.065 W m-2 at 30°N)
and contrails (peaking at 0.10 W m-2 at 40°N) are highly concentrated in northern mid-latitudes.
The global means of all four contributions are about equal (see Table 6-1). The NOx-driven
perturbations to O3 and CH4 produce RFs (+0.23 and -0.14 W m-2, respectively) that are of
similar magnitude and in part cancel. However, the latitudinal distribution of the radiative
imbalance from these two perturbations does not cancel: The combined O3+CH4 forcing is
http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/aviation/081.htm (1 von 3)08.05.2008 02:43:09
Figure 6-9: Zonal and annual mean radiative
imbalance (W m -2 ) at the tropopause (after
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