Aviation and the Global Atmosphere

Aviation and the Global Atmosphere
contributed by Jain, Wigley, and Schumann using carbon cycle models consistent with IPCC
(1996) and the IS92 scenarios therein. Aviation is estimated to be responsible for about 1 ppmv of the 80 ppmv rise in CO 2 from 1860 to 1990. Uncertainty in the
prediction of atmospheric CO 2 is estimated to be ±25%. Resulting CO 2 radiative forcing is only one part of aviation's climate impact. Other changes in greenhouse
gases, radiatively important aerosols, and clouds-as noted in Figure 6-1 and broken out in Table 6-1-must be included. The remaining sections of this chapter examine
aviation's total role in climate change over the next 50 years for the example scenarios given in Table 6-3.
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