Aviation and the Global Atmosphere

Aviation and the Global Atmosphere
Edh 0.048 0.083 0.146 0.265 0.564
Fa1H 0.048 0.071 0.114 0.168 0.275
Climate Change
Global Mean Surface Air Temperature Change (K)
IS92a 0.000 0.140 0.360 0.510 0.920
Fa1 0.000 0.004 0.015 0.024 0.052
Fc1 0.000 0.004 0.015 0.023 0.039
Fe1 0.000 0.004 0.015 0.026 0.070
Eab 0.000 0.004 0.014 0.026 0.090
Edh 0.000 0.005 0.019 0.038 0.133
Fa1H 0.000 0.004 0.015 0.025 0.066
Notes: The 1990 values are based on IEA data for 1990 fuel use; these values are higher than our estimate for 1992 (see Table 6-1). The
scenarios involve linear interpolation of emissions between 1990, 1992, 2015, and 2050 (see Tables 6-1 and 6-3). The projected CH4
increases are based on the emissions growth in IS92a that do not match the much smaller trends currently observed. These calculations
used the methodologies from the IPCC's Second Assessment Report (1996) as contributed by Atul Jain, Michael Prather, Robert Sausen,
Ulrich Schumann, Tom Wigley, and Don Wuebbles.
Table 6-3: Overview of the scenarios adopted for the climate assessment.
Name
Fixed-Year Scenario
1992 2015 2050 Comments
Fa1 NASA-1992* NASA-2015* FESGa Technology option 1
Fa2 NASA-1992* NASA-2015* FESGa Technology option 2
Fc1 NASA-1992* NASA-2015* FESGc Technology option 1
Fe1 NASA-1992* NASA-2015* FESGe Technology option 1
Eab NASA-1992* EDF-a-base EDF-a-base
Edh NASA-1992* EDF-d-high EDF-d-high
Fa1H NASA-1992* NASA-2015* FESGa+HSCT
Fa1 with part of subsonic traffic replaced by HSCT fleet growth from 2015 to 2040
The total fuel in Gt C used by aviation from 1950 to 1992 is shown in Figure 6-6. It also shows
two projections to 2050 (Fa1 and Eab; see Tables 6-1 and 6-2), comparing them with projected
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