Aviation and the Global Atmosphere

Aviation and the Global Atmosphere
Aviation and the Global Atmosphere
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6.1.3. Aviation Scenarios Adopted for Climate Assessment
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A few, detailed, three-dimensional (3-D) emission inventories for three specific years-1992, 2015, and 2050-are presented in Chapter 9 and are studied with 3-D
atmospheric models: NASA-1992, NASA-2015, and the ICAO-developed FESGa and FESGe scenarios for 2050. The FESG scenarios include three economic
options, a/c/e, corresponding to economic growth assumed in IS92a/c/e. Each of the FESG scenarios has technology option 1 assuming typical, market-driven
advances in engine/airframe technology and technology option 2 with advanced engine technology (i.e., a 25% reduction in NOx emission index with a 3.5% increase
in fuel use; see Chapter 9). Between these fixed-year scenarios, linear interpolation is used to derive continuous scenarios-Fa1, Fa2, Fc1, and Fe1 (see Table 6-3)that
extend from 1990 to 2050. CO 2 increases are derived from carbon-cycle models (see notes to Tables 6-1 and 6-2). Two scenarios based on EDF projections for
the years 2015 and 2050 (Vedantham and Oppenheimer, 1998) provide only global CO 2 and NOx emissions: the EDF-a-base (Eab) and EDF-d-high (Edh) cases. The
Edh scenario was not adopted for its relationship to any underlying population or economic scenario, but because it is a smooth extrapolation of recent growth rates.
Atmospheric changes other than CO 2 for Eab and Edh are scaled from the Fa1 and Fe1 scenarios (see notes to Table 6-1). The continuous scenarios are summarized
in Table 6-3.
Table 6-1: Aviation fixed-year (1992, 2015, and 2050) scenarios for emissions and radiative forcing.
Scenario
Fuel Burn (Mt yr-
1)
NOx Emis. d
(Mt yr-1)
http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/aviation/068.htm (1 von 8)08.05.2008 02:42:53
CO2f Conc.
(ppmv)
CO2f O3g ..
R adiative Forcing
CH4g
H2Oh
(W m-2)
Contrailsi
Sulfateh Aerosols BCh Aerosols
Total RFI