Aviation and the Global Atmosphere

Aviation and the Global Atmosphere
Restricting ourselves to the 1,000-plane Mach 2.4 fleet with EI(NOx)=5, the range of model results for annual averaged Northern Hemisphere column O 3 depletion is -
0.1% to -1.4% (see Table 4-12). Other model studies lead us to believe that reasonable changes in the background atmosphere (including background sulfate surface
area) would not change this range in a significant way. Uncertainties in rate data would expand the range to about +1 to -2.5%. One may also argue that the inability of
the models to simulate the correct mean age may add to uncertainties on the negative side by another 1%. Thus, a subjective estimate is that actual atmospheric
response would likely lie between +1 and -3.5%.
A 500-plane Mach 2.4 fleet with EI(NOx)=5 would have a similar range of uncertainty. Here, the range of model results for annual averaged Northern Hemisphere
column O 3 depletion is 0 to -1.3% (see Table 4.11)-very close to the -0.1 to -1.4% model range for 1,000 planes. Applying the same arguments for this 500-plane fleet,
a subjective estimate for the actual atmospheric response would likely be in the range of +1 to -3.5%. We have "fair" confidence in this range for the 500-plane and
1,000-plane fleets.
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