Aviation and the Global Atmosphere

Aviation and the Global Atmosphere
Table 4-3: Factors of increase from 1992 to 2050 for energy sources of CO, NO x , and VOCs as applied to different
regions in sensitivity studies.
NO x CO VOCs
OECD countries 0.83 0.25 1.06
Eastern Europe and
Soviet Union
Centrally planned
Asia (excluding Korea)
1.00 1.00 1.50
3.33 4.67 6.00
North Korea 2.19 1.40 2.11
Middle East 5.53 3.54 5.31
Southeast Asia 2.77 1.77 2.66
South Asia 9.25 5.93 8.89
Africa
(without South Africa)
7.19 4.60 6.91
South Africa 3.17 2.03 3.04
Latin America 4.85 3.10 4.66
For shorter lived gases-such as CO, NO x , and volatile organic compounds (VOCs)-the participating models use their standard boundary conditions for the 1992 cases.
For 2015 and 2050, most model calculations assume that emissions are increased by the same factors at all locations relative to 1992 emissions, as shown in Table 4-
2. Such constant increases were necessitated by difficulties in 3-D models to readily change emission inputs for assessment studies.
A special sensitivity study was also conducted for 2050 with the UiO model using a geographically varying emission increase (IPCC, 1995). A summary of these
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