Aviation and the Global Atmosphere

Aviation and the Global Atmosphere
● For the subsonic case, the uncertainty was taken to be a factor of 2, and was based on the differences among the various tropospheric models. The factor of 2
uncertainty was chosen for both the 2015 and 2050 atmospheres. This factor does not reflect additional uncertainties in future emissions, chemistry, and climate.
Therefore, the confidence of the calculations is "fair" for 2015 and "poor" for 2050.
● For the supersonic case, the range of all model calculations was passed on as a qualitative indication of the uncertainty. The estimate of the likely uncertainty range
is significantly larger than this model range. For example, the central value for the Northern Hemisphere annual average total O 3 change is -0.8% for a fleet of 1,000
aircraft in 2050, with a model range of -1.4 to -0.1%. A more likely uncertainty range for the possible Northern Hemisphere annual average total O 3 change from this
supersonic fleet of aircraft is +1 to -3.5%, and a "fair" confidence is associated with this range.
Table of contents | Previous page | Next page
Other reports in this collection
http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/aviation/045.htm (4 von 4)08.05.2008 02:42:16
IPCC Homepage