Aviation and the Global Atmosphere

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Aviation and the Global Atmosphere Similarly, aerosol mass data above the tropopause derived from lidar soundings show no trend in a region of heavy air traffic in Germany (48°N) over the last 22 years (Figure 3-7) (Jäger and Hofmann, 1991; Jäger et al., 1998). Table 3-4: Results from the 1992 fuel tracer simulations (other results included in Table 3- 1). Modela Max. Tracer Value (ng g - 1 ) Latitude of Max. (°N) Global Residence Time (days) Tracer 8-16 km 30-90°N (%) Tracer >12km (%) Max. Tracer Columnb (mg cm - 2 ) Global Soot Column (ng cm - 2 ) 2-D Models AER 26.7 55 38 34 45 6.6 0.11 3.5 GSFC-2D 122 55 62 61 16 22.9 0.20 5.9 LLNL 72.5 65 65 42 38 14.5 0.20 6.0 UNIVAQ- 2D 36.4 60 23 58 33 7.7 0.08 2.2 3-D Models ECHAm3 12.6 50 22 34 31 4.1 0.07 2.0 GSFC-3D 46.7 50 52 44 29 11.7 0.16 4.9 Tm3 20.1 80 21 45 40 4.9 0.07 2.0 UCI/GISS 34.4 55 27 49 14 8.2 0.09 2.6 UiO 28.2 55 29 50 40 7.8 0.09 2.7 UMICH 30.4 65 45 37 44 9.6 0.14 4.2 UNIVAQ- 3D 38.4 50 25 50 41 7.7 0.08 2.3 http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/aviation/036.htm (5 von 9)08.05.2008 02:42:01 Global SO4 Columnc (ng cm - 2 ) Figure 3-8: Zonally and annually averaged distribution of fuel tracer in ng(tracer)/g(air), according to indicated models.
Aviation and the Global Atmosphere a) Models are denoted as follows: 2-D-Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) (Weisenstein et al., 1998), Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC-2D) (Jackman et al., 1996), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) (Kinnison et al., 1994), University of L'Aquila (UNIVAQ-2D) (Pitari et al., 1993); 3-D-German Aerospace Center (DLR) (ECHAm 3 ) (Sausen and Köhler, 1994), Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC-3D) (Weaver et al., 1996), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) (Tm 3 ) (Wauben et al., 1997), University of California at Irvine (UCI/GISS) (Hannegan et al., 1998), University of Oslo (UiO) (Berntsen and Isaksen, 1997), University of Michigan(UMICH) (Penner et al., 1991), UNIVAQ-3D (Pitari, 1993). b) Column amounts calculated between 0-60 km for all models except ECHAm 3 and Tm 3 (0-32 km) and UiO (0-26 km). c These values are calculated from model results with assumptions of EI(soot) of 0.04 g/kg fuel, EI(sulfur) of 0.4 g/kg fuel, and 100% conversion of sulfur to H 2 SO 4 . Long-term changes in aerosol parameters measured in situ are also small. In situ measurements are important because the number of particles in the upper troposphere and lowermost stratosphere is dominated by sizes that are too small (< 0.15-mm radius) to be remotely detected. Long-term changes in CN are small in the 10- to 12-km region of the mid-latitude troposphere, where most of the current aircraft fleet operates (Hofmann, 1993). The 5% yr -1 increase in larger particle (radius > 0.15 mm) abundances found in lower stratospheric balloon measurements made between 1979 and 1990 was considered consistent with the accumulation of aircraft sulfur emissions (Hofmann, 1990, 1991). However, the absence of a change in observed stratospheric CN number suggests that the trend in the larger particles is the result of the growth of existing particles rather than nucleation of new particles. Model results show that the contribution of the current subsonic fleet to aerosol mass amounts between 15 and 20 km is about 100 times smaller than the observed aerosol amounts (Section 3.3.4; Bekki and Pyle, 1992). Previous balloonborne CN counters did not measure particles below 10 nm in radius, which are now detected with more modern CN counters and dominate aerosol number in aircraft plumes. Moreover, the attribution of aerosol changes to aircraft is complicated by changes in surface sources of sulfur and episodic strong injections of sulfur from volcanic eruptions (Hitchman et al., 1994; Barnes and Hofmann, 1997; Thomason et al., 1997a,b). Hence, the contribution of aircraft emissions to changes or possible trends in these regions is difficult to determine at present. 3.3.4. Modeling Sulfate Aerosol Perturbations Caused by Aircraft 3.3.4.1. Subsonic Aircraft Global models are required to evaluate the atmospheric impact of aerosol generated by subsonic aircraft (Friedl, 1997; Brasseur et al., 1998). The global distribution of tropospheric sulfur species has been investigated using various three-dimensional (3-D) models (Langner and Rodhe, 1991; Penner et al., 1994; Chin et al., 1996; Feichter et al., 1996; Pham et al., 1996; Schwartz, 1996). Because most models have been developed to investigate regional or global effects of surface emissions in the lower or middle troposphere, few have addressed the potential impact of aviation sources on aerosol parameters in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. A systematic model study has been carried out with a suite of two-dimensional (2-D) and 3-D atmospheric models to determine upper bounds for the accumulation of aviation aerosol in the atmosphere (Danilin et al., 1998). Each model computed the steady-state global distribution of a passive tracer emitted into the model atmosphere with the same rate and distribution as aviation fuel use, based on the NASA 1992 database (see Chapter 9). The only sink for the passive tracer is below 400 hPa (approximately 7 km), where it is removed with a 1/e-folding time of 5 days. The resultant global tracer distribution can be used to provide estimates of steady- http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/aviation/036.htm (6 von 9)08.05.2008 02:42:01
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