Innovation
Global Investor Focus, 02/2007 Credit Suisse
Global Investor Focus, 02/2007
Credit Suisse
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GLOBAL INVESTOR FOCUS <strong>Innovation</strong> — 46<br />
Alzheimer’s<br />
Wyeth<br />
WYE US<br />
Wyeth offers an attractive combination of<br />
solid core product growth and an interesting<br />
new product pipeline.<br />
Eli Lilly<br />
LLY US<br />
BUY<br />
BUY<br />
Eli Lilly’s industry-leading pipeline, low exposure<br />
to patent expirations and improving<br />
operating margins support our positive stance.<br />
Myriad Genetics<br />
MYGN US<br />
BUY<br />
Credit Suisse’s BUY rating is for long-term investors<br />
looking for risky stocks. Phase 3 data on<br />
Alzheimer’s drug Flurizan is expected in 2008.<br />
Neurochem<br />
NRM CN<br />
HOLD<br />
Caution is advised with this stock, as unpredictable<br />
data from Alzhemed studies, due Q2<br />
2007, will have a big impact on the share price.<br />
Promising treatments<br />
Drug name Company Ticker Mechanism Phase<br />
Alzhemed Neurochem NRM CN Prevent formation of<br />
amyloid deposits<br />
Flurizan<br />
Myriad<br />
Genetics<br />
MYGN US<br />
Bapineuzumab Wyeth and Elan WYE US and<br />
ELN US<br />
Decreases production of<br />
amyloid<br />
Clear amyloid deposits 2<br />
LY2062430 Eli Lilly LLY US Possibly influences amyloid<br />
production<br />
LY450139 Eli Lilly LLY US Blocks amyloid-making<br />
enzyme<br />
3<br />
3<br />
2<br />
2<br />
Alzheimer’s disease (AD) affects more than 25 million people<br />
worldwide. According to a Johns Hopkins University study published<br />
this year, AD prevalence will quadruple by 2050, leaving<br />
one in 85 people worldwide living with the disease. With no means<br />
to prevent the disease, no cure and poor methods of treatment,<br />
the picture looks bleak. Last month, US lawmakers proposed a<br />
package of legislation aimed at enhancing patient care, describing<br />
AD as the “number one health crisis of the 21st century.” There<br />
are strong grounds for concern, as the situation could become a<br />
severe economic burden to society, as patient care already costs<br />
an estimated USD 91 billion per year. That makes it the third most<br />
costly illness in the USA after heart disease and cancer.<br />
To gain precious time, it is better to detect the disease early.<br />
Limitations in achieving such early diagnosis are currently a huge<br />
hurdle in the race to treat patients. Existing methods to screen for<br />
AD are based on cognitive tests, which sometimes lead to misdiagnosis.<br />
More refined methods such as lab tests are being developed<br />
that detect molecular markers of AD in spinal and cerebral<br />
fluid. Promising new molecular approaches in detection<br />
include a nanotechnology-based diagnostic tool being developed<br />
by Applied NeuroSolutions Nanosphere.<br />
Research efforts are primarily focused on the aberrant amyloid<br />
plaque deposits formed in the brain of AD patients. Current<br />
drugs only treat the symptoms of AD, but do not block the molecular<br />
basis of plaque formation and progression. Japanese scientists<br />
recently developed an oral vaccine for AD which has proved<br />
effective in monkeys. The team may move to clinical trials this<br />
year. Professor Tabira, the director of the research institute, explains:<br />
“It seems likely that [the] vaccine prevents or delays the<br />
onset of AD.” He also says that they are currently seeking large<br />
companies for a partnership.<br />
Drugs on the market treating the symptoms of AD include Aricept<br />
from Pfizer, Exelon from Novartis, Namenda from Forest<br />
Labs, and Razadyne from Johnson & Johnson. A new treatment<br />
concept could be introduced with the launch of the so-called disease-modifying<br />
drugs (DMDs) from 2009 onwards. The key mechanism<br />
behind DMDs involves blocking the underlying biological<br />
causes of AD. A number of drug companies have come up with<br />
interesting data from late-stage clinical trials in this new paradigm.<br />
Of particular interest are large companies such as Wyeth and Eli<br />
Lilly. Smaller companies such as Myriad Genetics and Neurochem<br />
are conducting clinical studies for promising drugs that directly<br />
attack the underlying basis of the disease, not just the symptoms.<br />
In the case of patients for whom all available pharmaceutical<br />
options have failed, brain-stimulation technology shows significant<br />
potential. One very promising avenue for influencing the living<br />
brain has emerged in the past few years, based on the use of<br />
pulsed magnetic fields. This novel noninvasive magnetic field<br />
technique is called transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS). The<br />
technique employs head-mounted wire coils that send strong but<br />
very short magnetic pulses directly into specific brain regions,<br />
thus safely and painlessly inducing tiny electric currents in a person’s<br />
neural circuitry. TMS is currently being tested for the treatment<br />
of a number of neurological diseases, including AD. The<br />
companies actively conducting TMS research in this area are<br />
Neuronetics (not listed), Magstim (not listed), Nexstim (not listed)<br />
and Medtronic. Carri Duncan, Tania Dimitrova, Maria Custer Sigrist<br />
Source: Credit Suisse