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were perfect. It is this ideal, an ideal that is happily beyond realisation, that we are fast approaching. The rapid diffusion of telephones in America from the moment of their first appearance there is one proof in point. This ideal is almost reached already in the matter of legislative innovations. Laws or decrees which were once slowly and laboriously administered in one province after another are today executed from one end to the other of a state the very day of their passage or promulgation. This occurs because in this case there is no hindrance whatsoever. Lack of communication in social physics plays the same role as lack of elasticity in physics. The one hinders imitation as much as the other, vibration. But the imitative spread of certain well-known inventions (railroads, telegraphs, etc.), tends to diminish, to the benefit of every other invention, this insufficiency of mental contact. As for mental dissimilarity, it likewise tends to be effaced by the spread of wants and ideas which have arisen from past inventions and whose work of assimilation in this way facilitates the propagation of future inventions. I mean of future non-contradictory inventions. When wants or ideas are once started, they always tend to continue to spread of themselves in a true geometric progression. 3 This is the ideal scheme to which their curve would conform if they could spread without mutual obstruction. But as such checks are, at one time or another, inevitable, and as they continue to increase, every one of these social forces must eventually run up against a wall which for the time being is insurmountable and must through accident, not at all through natural necessity, fall temporarily into that static condition whose meaning statisticians in general appear to so little understand. In this case, as in all others, a static condition means equilibrium, a joint standstill of concurrent forces. I am far from denying the theoretic interest of this state, because these equilibria are equivalent to equations. If, for example, I see that the consumption of coffee or chocolate has ceased to increase in a certain country at a certain date, I know that the strength of the desire there for coffee or chocolate is exactly equal to that of certain rival desires which would have to remain unsatisfied, considering the average fortune, by a more amble satisfaction of the former. The price of every article is determined in this way. But does not every one of the annual figures in progressive series or slopes also express an equation between the strength, at a certain date, of the desire in question and the strength of competing desires which hindered its further development at the same date? Moreover, if progression ceased at one point rather than at another, if the plateau is neither higher nor lower than it is, is it not because of a mere accident of history, that is to say, because of the fact that the opposing invention, from which arose the antagonistic wants that barred the progress in question, appeared at one time and place rather than at another, or because of the fact that it actually did appear instead of not appearing at all? Plateaux, let me add, are always unstable equilibria. After an approximately horizontal position has been sustained for a more or less prolonged time, the curve begins to rise or fall, the series begins to grow or diminish with the appearance of new auxiliary and confirmatory or antagonistic and contradictory inventions. As for diminishing series, they are merely, as we see, the result of successful growths which have suppressed some declining public taste or opinion which was once in vogue; they do not deserve the attention of the theorist except as the other side of the picture of the growing series which they presuppose. Let me also state that whenever the statistician is able to lay hold of the origin of an invention and to trace out year by year its numerical career, he shows us curves which, for a certain time, at least, are constantly rising, and rising, too, although for a much shorter period, with great regularity. If this perfect regularity fails to continue, it is for reasons which I will shortly indicate. But when very ancient inventions like monogamy or Christian marriage are under consideration, inventions which have had time to pass through their progressive period and which have rounded out, so to speak, their

whole sphere of imitation, we ought not to be surprised if Statistics, in its ignorance of their beginnings, represents them by horizontal lines that show scarce a deviation. In view of this, there is nothing astonishing in the fact that the proportion of the annual number of marriages to the total population remains about constant (except in France, I may say, where there is a gradual diminution in this proportion) or even in the fact that the influence of marriage upon crime or suicide is expressed each year by pretty much the same figures. Here we are dealing with ancient institutions which have passed into the blood of a people just like the natural factors of climate, seasons, temperament, sex, and age, which influence the mass of human acts with such striking uniformity (which has been greatly exaggerated, however, as it is much more circumscribed than is generally supposed) and with a regularity that is also remarkable, in quite a different way, again, in connection with vital phenomena like death and disease. . . . . . . These curves are now relegated to the last page, but they tend to encroach upon the others, and, perhaps, before long, at any rate, at some time in the future when people have been satiated with declamation and polemic, just as very well read minds begin to be with literature, and when they will read the papers merely for their multifarious statements of exact and ungarnished fact, they will usurp the place of honour. The public journals, then, will become socially what our sense organs are vitally. . . . The ideal newspaper of this kind would be one without political articles and full of graphical curves and succinct editorials.

whole sphere of imitation, we ought not to be surprised if Statistics, in its ignorance of their<br />

beginnings, represents them by horizontal lines that show scarce a deviation. In view of this, there is<br />

nothing astonishing in the fact that the proportion of the annual number of marriages to the total<br />

population remains about constant (except in France, I may say, where there is a gradual diminution in<br />

this proportion) or even in the fact that the influence of marriage upon crime or suicide is expressed<br />

each year by pretty much the same figures. Here we are dealing with ancient institutions which have<br />

passed into the blood of a people just like the natural factors of climate, seasons, temperament, sex,<br />

and age, which influence the mass of human acts with such striking uniformity (which has been greatly<br />

exaggerated, however, as it is much more circumscribed than is generally supposed) and with a<br />

regularity that is also remarkable, in quite a different way, again, in connection with vital phenomena<br />

like death and disease. . . .<br />

. . . These curves are now relegated to the last page, but they tend to encroach upon the others, and,<br />

perhaps, before long, at any rate, at some time in the future when people have been satiated with<br />

declamation and polemic, just as very well read minds begin to be with literature, and when they will<br />

read the papers merely for their multifarious statements of exact and ungarnished fact, they will usurp<br />

the place of honour. The public journals, then, will become socially what our sense organs are<br />

vitally. . . . The ideal newspaper of this kind would be one without political articles and full of<br />

graphical curves and succinct editorials.

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