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PREFACE The fight for the future makes daily headlines. Its battles are not between the armies of leading states, nor are its weapons the large, expensive tanks, planes, and fleets of regular armed forces. Rather, the combatants come from bomb-making terrorist groups like Osama bin Laden’s al-Qaeda, drug smuggling cartels like those in Colombia and Mexico, and militant anarchists like the Black Bloc that ran amok during the Battle of Seattle. Other protagonists are civil-society activists fighting for democracy and human rights—from Burma to the Balkans. What all have in common is that they operate in small, dispersed units that can deploy nimbly—anywhere, anytime. They know how to penetrate and disrupt, as well as elude and evade. All feature network forms of organization, doctrine, strategy, and technology attuned to the information age. And, from the Intifadah to the drug war, they are proving very hard to beat; some may actually be winning. This is the story we tell. This book also provides a further step in the elaboration of our ideas about how and why the information revolution is affecting the whole spectrum of conflict. Our notion of cyberwar (1993) focused on the military domain, and our first study of netwar 1 (1996) on irregular modes of conflict, including terror, crime, and militant social activism. 2 The implications of these concepts for organization, doctrine, and technology across the spectrum of conflict were further elaborated in our book, In Athena’s Camp (1997). More recently, we noted that many activists who practice netwar are helping to create a new approach to strategy and diplomacy that we call noopolitik (1999). Next, we expanded on our idea that swarming (2000) will emerge as a 21st-century doctrine that will encompass and enliven both cyberwar and netwar. Here, we offer new analysis about netwar. The analysis includes case studies about terrorists, criminals, and gangs; social netwars in Burma, Mexico, and Seattle; and closing chapters on some of the technological, organizational, and doctrinal dynamics of netwar. U.S. policymakers and strategists will be interested in this book. It should also interest analysts in academia and research institutes concerned with how the information revolution is altering the nature of conflict. This book was prepared for a project on “Networks and Netwars,” directed by John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt. The project was sponsored by the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Command, Control, Communications and Intelligence), OASD/C3I, and was conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of <strong>RAND</strong>’s National Defense Research Institute (NDRI). NDRI is a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of
Defense, the Joint Staff, the unified commands, and the defense agencies. Comments are invited. We can be reached via email at arquilla@rand.org and ronfeldt@rand.org. 1 Our netwar concept predates, and should not be confused with, the U.S. military’s “network warfare simulation system” (NETWARS). 2 For full citations of these and our other studies, please see the bibliographies for Chapters One and Ten.
Page 3 and 4: The Future of Terror, Crime, and Mi
Page 5: To Dick O’Neill, for his stalwart
Page 9 and 10: Chapter Eight ACTIVISM, HACKTIVISM,
Page 11 and 12: must continue to keep an eye on the
Page 13 and 14: ACKNOWLEDGMENTS We are deeply grate
Page 15 and 16: as a looming mode of military confl
Page 17 and 18: With respect to Serbia, then, a bet
Page 19 and 20: of any node included in it, may be
Page 21 and 22: more about technology than organiza
Page 23 and 24: charged with taking care of specifi
Page 25 and 26: The limits on some successes and th
Page 27 and 28: the rise of netwar should prompt a
Page 29 and 30: Brin, David, The Transparent Societ
Page 31 and 32: 9 This is just a short exemplary st
Page 33 and 34: Chapter Two THE NETWORKING OF TERRO
Page 35 and 36: The Emergence of Networked Terroris
Page 37 and 38: integration of communication and co
Page 39 and 40: technologies such as encryption all
Page 41 and 42: (Hoffman, 1998, p. 131). Terrorists
Page 43 and 44: terrorists who rely on the Internet
Page 45 and 46: Future Developments in Information-
Page 47 and 48: Figure 2.1—Possible Shifts in the
Page 49 and 50: hire,” and the availability of ef
Page 51 and 52: www.fas.org/irp/threat/commission.h
Page 53 and 54: Nohria, Nitin, and Robert Eccles, e
Page 55 and 56: Department of the Army, 1997. 19 Fo
Page 57 and 58:
Chapter Three TRANSNATIONAL CRIMINA
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policymakers concerned with develop
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there are relatively strong, direct
Page 63 and 64:
Other networks will have a more end
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network a capacity to operate with
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deals. The importance of these netw
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The specific connections that facil
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superiority—the equivalent of an
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was a fascinating mix. It included
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elationships between the Christian
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organizations have hierarchical str
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example, in identifying some of the
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provide an important value-added ap
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Transformations,” in Stark and Gr
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changes benefit from these new tech
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outside of the realm of true terror
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hardcore Category C nucleus. Catego
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millennialist cults and such transn
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For the most part, these gangs are
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attling gangs in Cape Town and the
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Colombian cartels, and the imprison
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unknown actors in Seattle and elsew
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esponse. Finally, TEW utilizes an
Page 103 and 104:
23 Consider Japan’s intelligence
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Part II SOCIAL NETWARS
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Burma (a small, and to many, obscur
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Whereas McLuhan declared “the med
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years and fines of up to $5,000 for
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Massachusetts. The “selective pur
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central in using electronic communi
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THE FREE BURMA COALITION AND THE PE
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Students at Harvard tapped into the
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eleased a list of their suppliers f
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Simons was in his high school Amnes
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Case studies and an Internet activi
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when a campaign scores successes. T
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transmit, almost in real-time, debr
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warning was made virtually unanimou
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7 See, for example, Marshall McLuha
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investment, the standard of living
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Chapter Six EMERGENCE AND INFLUENCE
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hierarchical layer—at least initi
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Chiapas and Mexico City in “swarm
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Transnational NGO Mobilization—A
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Acting in tandem with these organiz
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only to the conflict in Chiapas but
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comment outside as well as inside M
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and political ideals and similar co
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Cleaver, Harry, “The Zapatista Ef
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Thomas, Hugh, Conquest: Montezuma,
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The success of that networking was
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outlining their strategies and tact
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conference, rather than the success
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vandalism and nearly all of the loo
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direct transmissions from roving in
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Network planned to shut down the WT
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gas was an attempt to expand and re
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Assistant Chief Joiner was turning
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The Black Bloc engaged in vandalism
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of the AFL-CIO retreat from downtow
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for the four hours that President C
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Around midnight, the disorder had d
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vandalism by anarchists, or a divid
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summer of 2001 in Genoa indicate th
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Chapter Eight ACTIVISM, HACKTIVISM,
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The following sections discuss and
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including Western news sites. In Ap
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devastation, the latter caused not
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Privacy Information Center (EPIC),
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open.” On the downside, some post
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independence, sustained air strikes
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about an esoteric bank regulation,
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generate so much traffic against th
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actions to defend against an attack
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on three continents. Chris Ellison,
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purpose is, NATO led by U.S.A. must
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eported intrusions from outsiders.
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In the 1980s, Barry Collin, a senio
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Cyberdefense The main effect of cyb
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policymakers. It supports both open
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37 Andrew Brown, “Editors Wanted,
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89 Amy Harmon, “‘Hacktivists’
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Chapter Nine THE STRUCTURE OF SOCIA
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enough expert agreement to support
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While the press often picks out an
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It is not only those famed as evang
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and united counteraction by the “
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ADAPTIVE FUNCTIONS The type of orga
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pass a bill to establish the Bounda
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Gerlach, Luther P. 1978. “The Gre
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Chapter Ten WHAT NEXT FOR NETWORKS
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and “have-nots” portends a new
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Classic studies concern topics like
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still do) as to precisely what is a
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also characterize some sprawling te
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speed. It shows that such a partner
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and social scenes of Medellin and C
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depend on the existence of shared p
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gas and clubs, another would move i
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from other interesting cases of net
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THE PRACTICE OF NETWAR (AND COUNTER
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But today’s concept of globalizat
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Figure 10.1—The Two Axes of Strat
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world today, we see little sustaine
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Carr, Edward Hallett, The Twenty Ye
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Kumar, Kuldeep, and Han G. van Diss
Page 269 and 270:
Shaw, Marvin, Group Dynamics: The P
Page 271 and 272:
22 From Dan Barry and Al Baker, “
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02, Central Intelligence Agency, De
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AFTERWORD (SEPTEMBER 2001): THE SHA
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was no doubt the bombing of the Kho
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Harper & Row, 1951. Johnson, Steven
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CONTRIBUTORS Paul de Armond is dire
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