The final part considers the future of netwar, particularly regarding how technology, organization, and doctrine interact. Dorothy Denning assesses whether activists, hacktivists, or cyberterrorists may gain the most influence from exploiting the new information technologies. Luther Gerlach’s chapter, though focused on environmental activism, identifies the dynamics of organizations that are segmentary, polycentric, and integrated as a network—from leaderlessness to operational fluidity. We think these dynamics apply, in varying degrees, to all the types of actors examined in the first two parts of the book. Our concluding chapter addresses likely trends in both the theory and practice of netwar—from how to draw on academic theories about networks, to how to think strategically about netwar itself. Thus, Part III should make the reader aware of both the perils and the promises of netwar, while also providing analytical guideposts for future studies of this phenomenon. BIBLIOGRAPHY Arquilla, John, and Theodore Karasik, “Chechnya: A Glimpse of Future Conflict?” Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, Vol. 22, No. 3, July–September 1999, pp. 207–230. Arquilla, John, and David Ronfeldt, “Cyberwar Is Coming!” Comparative Strategy, Vol. 12, No. 2, Summer 1993, pp. 141–165. Available as <strong>RAND</strong> reprint RP-223. Arquilla, John, and David Ronfeldt, The Advent of Netwar, Santa Monica, Calif.: <strong>RAND</strong>, MR-789-OSD, 1996. Arquilla, John, and David Ronfeldt, The Emergence of Noopolitik: Toward an American Information Strategy, Santa Monica, Calif.: <strong>RAND</strong>, MR-1033-OSD, 1999. Arquilla, John, and David Ronfeldt, Swarming and the Future of Conflict, Santa Monica, Calif.: <strong>RAND</strong>, DB-311-OSD, 2000. Arquilla, John, and David Ronfeldt, eds., In Athena’s Camp: Preparing for Conflict in the Information Age, Santa Monica, Calif.: <strong>RAND</strong>, MR-880-OSD/RC, 1997. Arquilla, John, David Ronfeldt, and Michele Zanini, “Information-Age Terrorism and the U.S. Air Force,” in Ian O. Lesser et al., Countering the New Terrorism, Santa Monica, Calif.: <strong>RAND</strong>, MR-989-AF, 1999. Beam, Louis, “Leaderless Resistance,” The Seditionist, Issue 12, February 1992 (text can also be located sometimes on the web). Berger, Alexander, Organizational Innovation and Redesign in the Information Age: The Drug War, Netwar, and Other Low-End Conflict, master’s thesis, Monterey, Calif.: Naval Postgraduate School, 1998. Bonabeau, Eric, Marco Dorigo, and Guy Theraulaz, Swarm Intelligence: From Natural to Artificial Systems, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1999. Bowden, Mark, Blackhawk Down: A Story of Modern War, New York: Atlantic Monthly Press, 1999.
Brin, David, The Transparent Society: Will Technology Force Us to Choose Between Privacy and Freedom? Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley, 1998. Castells, Manuel, The Information Age: Economy, Society and Culture, Vol. II, The Power of Identity, Malden, Mass.: Blackwell Publishers, 1997. Cleaver, Harry, “The Zapatistas and the Electronic Fabric of Struggle,” 1995, www.eco.utexas.edu/faculty/Cleaver/zaps.html, printed in John Holloway and Eloina Pelaez, eds., Zapatista! Reinventing Revolution in Mexico, Sterling, Va.: Pluto Press, 1998, pp. 81–103. Cleaver, Harry, “The Zapatista Effect: The Internet and the Rise of an Alternative Political Fabric,” Journal of International Affairs, Vol. 51, No. 2, Spring 1998, pp. 621– 640. Cleaver, Harry, Computer-Linked Social Movements and the Global Threat to Capitalism, July 1999, www.eco.utexas.edu/faculty/Cleaver/polnet.html. Edwards, Sean J.A., Swarming on the Battlefield: Past, Present and Future, Santa Monica, Calif.: <strong>RAND</strong>, MR-1100-OSD, 2000. Evan, William M., “An Organization-Set Model of Interorganizational Relations,” in Matthew Tuite, Roger Chisholm, and Michael Radnor, eds., Interorganizational Decisionmaking, Chicago: Aldine Publishing Company, 1972, pp. 181–200. Gann, Lewis, Guerrillas in History, Stanford, Calif.: Hoover Institution Press, 1970. Gerlach, Luther P., “Protest Movements and the Construction of Risk,” in B. B. Johnson and V. T. Covello, eds., The Social and Cultural Construction of Risk, Boston: D. Reidel Publishing Co., 1987, pp. 103– 145. Gerlach, Luther P., and Virginia Hine, People, Power, Change: Movements of Social Transformation, New York: The Bobbs-Merrill Co., 1970. Gray, Chris Hables, Postmodern War: The New Politics of Conflict, New York: The Guilford Press, 1997. Kelly, Kevin, Out of Control: The Rise of Neo-Biological Civilization, New York: A William Patrick Book, Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, 1994. Lesser, Ian O., Bruce Hoffman, John Arquilla, David Ronfeldt, Michele Zanini, and Brian Jenkins, Countering the New Terrorism, Santa Monica, Calif.: <strong>RAND</strong>, MR-989-AF, 1999. Nye, Joseph S., Bound to Lead: The Changing Nature of American Power, New York: Basic Books, 1990. Nye, Joseph S., and William A. Owens, “America’s Information Edge,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 75, No. 2, March/April 1996, pp. 20–36. Ronfeldt, David, Tribes, Institutions, Markets, Networks—A Framework About Societal Evolution, Santa Monica, Calif.: <strong>RAND</strong>, P-7967, 1996.
- Page 3 and 4: The Future of Terror, Crime, and Mi
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example, in identifying some of the
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provide an important value-added ap
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Transformations,” in Stark and Gr
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changes benefit from these new tech
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outside of the realm of true terror
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hardcore Category C nucleus. Catego
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millennialist cults and such transn
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For the most part, these gangs are
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attling gangs in Cape Town and the
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Colombian cartels, and the imprison
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unknown actors in Seattle and elsew
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esponse. Finally, TEW utilizes an
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23 Consider Japan’s intelligence
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Part II SOCIAL NETWARS
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Burma (a small, and to many, obscur
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Whereas McLuhan declared “the med
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years and fines of up to $5,000 for
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Massachusetts. The “selective pur
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central in using electronic communi
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THE FREE BURMA COALITION AND THE PE
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Students at Harvard tapped into the
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eleased a list of their suppliers f
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Simons was in his high school Amnes
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Case studies and an Internet activi
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when a campaign scores successes. T
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transmit, almost in real-time, debr
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warning was made virtually unanimou
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7 See, for example, Marshall McLuha
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investment, the standard of living
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Chapter Six EMERGENCE AND INFLUENCE
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hierarchical layer—at least initi
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Chiapas and Mexico City in “swarm
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Transnational NGO Mobilization—A
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Acting in tandem with these organiz
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only to the conflict in Chiapas but
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comment outside as well as inside M
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and political ideals and similar co
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Cleaver, Harry, “The Zapatista Ef
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Thomas, Hugh, Conquest: Montezuma,
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The success of that networking was
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outlining their strategies and tact
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conference, rather than the success
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vandalism and nearly all of the loo
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direct transmissions from roving in
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Network planned to shut down the WT
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gas was an attempt to expand and re
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Assistant Chief Joiner was turning
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The Black Bloc engaged in vandalism
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of the AFL-CIO retreat from downtow
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for the four hours that President C
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Around midnight, the disorder had d
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vandalism by anarchists, or a divid
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summer of 2001 in Genoa indicate th
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Chapter Eight ACTIVISM, HACKTIVISM,
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The following sections discuss and
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including Western news sites. In Ap
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devastation, the latter caused not
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Privacy Information Center (EPIC),
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open.” On the downside, some post
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independence, sustained air strikes
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about an esoteric bank regulation,
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generate so much traffic against th
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actions to defend against an attack
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on three continents. Chris Ellison,
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purpose is, NATO led by U.S.A. must
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eported intrusions from outsiders.
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In the 1980s, Barry Collin, a senio
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Cyberdefense The main effect of cyb
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policymakers. It supports both open
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37 Andrew Brown, “Editors Wanted,
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89 Amy Harmon, “‘Hacktivists’
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Chapter Nine THE STRUCTURE OF SOCIA
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enough expert agreement to support
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While the press often picks out an
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It is not only those famed as evang
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and united counteraction by the “
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ADAPTIVE FUNCTIONS The type of orga
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pass a bill to establish the Bounda
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Gerlach, Luther P. 1978. “The Gre
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Chapter Ten WHAT NEXT FOR NETWORKS
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and “have-nots” portends a new
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Classic studies concern topics like
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still do) as to precisely what is a
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also characterize some sprawling te
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speed. It shows that such a partner
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and social scenes of Medellin and C
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depend on the existence of shared p
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gas and clubs, another would move i
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from other interesting cases of net
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THE PRACTICE OF NETWAR (AND COUNTER
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But today’s concept of globalizat
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Figure 10.1—The Two Axes of Strat
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world today, we see little sustaine
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Carr, Edward Hallett, The Twenty Ye
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Kumar, Kuldeep, and Han G. van Diss
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Shaw, Marvin, Group Dynamics: The P
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22 From Dan Barry and Al Baker, “
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02, Central Intelligence Agency, De
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AFTERWORD (SEPTEMBER 2001): THE SHA
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was no doubt the bombing of the Kho
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Harper & Row, 1951. Johnson, Steven
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CONTRIBUTORS Paul de Armond is dire