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34 One role in an affinity group might be police liaison, but it carries the risk that this person would be perceived as a group leader, when in fact the group does not have a leader per se, making all decisions through consensus. 35 Sources are Dylan Bennett and Gretchen Giles, “Spokes Persons: Bicyclists See Transportation As Critical,” Sonoma County Independent, April 3–9, 1997, www.metroactive.com/papers/sonoma/04.03.97/bikes-9714.html; Critical Mass, undated brochure, http://danenet.wicip.org/bcp/cm.html; Joel Pomerantz, A San Francisco Critical Mass Glossary: 7 Years of Building a Culture & Learning Lessons, As Reflected in Our Terminology,” September 1999, http://bok.net/~jig/CM/glossary.html; and Joel Pomerantz, A Few Comments on Critical Mass: A Brief Introduction to the Critical Mass Glossary, October 1999, http://bok.net/~jig/CM/glossaryintro.html. 36 Interested readers should visit www.nyu.edu/projects/wray/ and related web sites. 37 From Stefan Krempl, “Computerized Resistance After the Big Flood: Email Interview with Ricardo Dominguez,” Telepolis (European online magazine), February 16, 2000, www.heise.de/tp/english/inhalt/te/5801/1.html; and Carrie Kirby, “Hacking with a Conscience Is a New Trend,” San Francisco Chronicle, November 20, 2000, posted at www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2000/11/20/BU121645.DTL. Also see the web sites of the EDT, the Electrohippies, and the Cult of the Dead Cow. 38 We thank Bob Anderson of <strong>RAND</strong> for pointing out the importance of peer-to-peer computing. He observes that peer-topeer computing can enable its users to prevent censorship of documents, provide anonymity for users, remove any single point of failure or control, efficiently store and distribute documents, and provide plausible deniability for node operators. 39 Rutherford (1999), with original text corrected via email correspondence. Also see Williams and Goose (1998, esp. pp. 22–25). 40 Alexander MacLeod, “Call to Picket Finds New Ring in Britain’s Fuel Crisis,” The Christian Science Monitor, September 19, 2000. MacLeod notes that recent commercial practices increased Britain’s vulnerability to this social netwar: Many tanker drivers were freelancers, with no contractual obligations to the oil companies; and many gas stations operated under a “just-in-time” delivery system, keeping few reserves in place. 41 Schweizer (1994) details the CIA’s sending of advanced communications devices to Solidarity, and notes (p. 146) that “the administration also wanted the underground fully equipped with fax machines, computers, advanced printing equipment, and more.” Woodward (1987, p. 66) observes that these secure lines of communication were also used to maintain contact with the CIA, which often gave Solidarity early warning of the military regime’s planned “sweeps” for activists and leaders. 42 See the three-part series of articles in The New York Times on “Holy Warriors,” beginning with Stephen Engelberg, “One Man and a Global Web of Influence,” The New York Times, January 14, 2001, pp. A1, A12–A13. 43 From the discussion following the speech by Jody Williams, International Organization in the International Campaign to Ban Landmines, at a gathering of recipients of the Nobel Peace Prize, University of Virginia, November 6, 1998, www.virginia.edu/nobel/transcript/jwilliams.html. 44 In Copeland (2000), see especially the statements by James Rosenau and Steven Metz. 45 From the “Introduction” to Patterns of Global Terrorism: 1999, Department of State Publication 10687, Office of the Secretary of State, Office of the Coordinator for Counterterrorism, released April 2000, www.state.gov/www/global/terrorism/1999report/1999index.html. 46 From U.S. Government Interagency Working Group, International Crime Threat Assessment, December 2000, Chapter 1, www.whitehouse.gov/WH/EOP/NSC/html/ documents/pub45270/pub45270chap1.html#4. 47 National Intelligence Council, Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue About the Future with Nongovernment Experts, NIC 2000-
02, Central Intelligence Agency, December 2000, www.cia.gov/cia/publications/globaltrends2015/index.html. 48 See Lenin (1916, p. 76), whose breakdown showed 90 percent of Africa under colonial control in 1900, 60 percent of Asia, all of Polynesia and Australia, and nearly a third of the Americas. 49 Hoffman (1998) notes that religion is also a rising force behind terrorism. 50 See Held and McGrew (2000), esp. Ch. 2 (excerpted from a 1999 book by David Held, Anthony McGrew, David Goldblatt, and Jonathan Perraton), and Ch. 11 (from a 1997 paper by Michael Mann). Also see Rosenau (1990) and Nye and Donahue (2000). 51 In the 19th century, the notion of a harmony of interests seemed to predominate over realpolitik—at least from the fall of Napoleon in 1815 to the onset of the social revolutions of 1848, and even, though falteringly, until the onset of World War I. The 20th century, on the other hand, seems to have been mainly the child of realpolitik. 52 Koestler (1978) does not adequately consider the kind of disequilibrium in which a refusal to connect with the world as a whole may lead to mischief. 53 This unexpectedly paraphrases President Reagan, whose national security strategy articulated in June of 1981 called for the spread of American values, creating a new dimension of American power. He wanted to encourage the world to see, in the American example, “a shining city on a hill.” As Reagan observed in his farewell address to the nation (given January 11, 1989): I’ve spoken of the shining city all my political life, but I don’t know if I ever quite communicated what I saw when I said it. In my mind it was a tall, proud city built on rocks stronger than oceans, windswept, God-blessed, and teeming with people of all kinds living in harmony and peace; a city with free ports that hummed with commerce and creativity (Hannaford, 1998, p. 278). 54 Kennan (1996, p. 282) puts it concisely, noting that what we call the “beacon” strategy “would be a policy that would seek the possibilities for service to morality primarily in our own behavior, not in our judgment of others.” 55 We have related in other writings (e.g., Arquilla and Ronfeldt, 1999) our own view that states will remain the paramount actors in the international system. As a result of the information revolution, nonstate actors will continue to gain strength and influence; and this will lead to changes in the nature of the state—but not its “withering away.” What will occur is a transformation, where some states will emerge stronger than ever because of a capacity to work conjointly with NGOs and other civil nonstate actors. As this process unfolds, there will be a rebalancing of relations among state, market, and civil-society actors around the world—in ways that favor “noopolitik” over realpolitik. 56 For example, Afghanistan’s Taliban government, while it refuses to extradite Osama bin Laden, shows little sign of protecting him out of self-interest. Rather, its position seems to stem from a sense of obligation to a heroic fighter in the war against the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s. In Colombia, far from embracing criminal networks, the government is imperiled by them. The only unambiguously clear example of a state reaching out to a nonstate organization thought to engage in terrorist attacks is that of Iran and Hizbollah, which operates out of southern Lebanon and recently drove the Israeli Defense Forces out of Lebanon, after two decades of occupation. Finally, there are some signs that China is cooperating on some levels with certain criminal networks—modern-day pirates in particular—but the evidence is scant at best. 57 See the discussion above about the recently released Global Trends 2015 report (National Intelligence Council, 2000) which focuses to a large extent on the rise of networked criminal and terrorist organizations, while spending very little time on the opportunities that may arise from working with and supporting nonstate civil-society actors. 58 A growing literature has begun to identify lessons and options for states and NGOs to work together. Recent sources we
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The Future of Terror, Crime, and Mi
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To Dick O’Neill, for his stalwart
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Defense, the Joint Staff, the unifi
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Chapter Eight ACTIVISM, HACKTIVISM,
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must continue to keep an eye on the
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS We are deeply grate
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as a looming mode of military confl
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With respect to Serbia, then, a bet
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of any node included in it, may be
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more about technology than organiza
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charged with taking care of specifi
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The limits on some successes and th
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the rise of netwar should prompt a
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Brin, David, The Transparent Societ
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9 This is just a short exemplary st
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Chapter Two THE NETWORKING OF TERRO
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The Emergence of Networked Terroris
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integration of communication and co
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technologies such as encryption all
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(Hoffman, 1998, p. 131). Terrorists
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terrorists who rely on the Internet
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Future Developments in Information-
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Figure 2.1—Possible Shifts in the
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hire,” and the availability of ef
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www.fas.org/irp/threat/commission.h
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Nohria, Nitin, and Robert Eccles, e
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Department of the Army, 1997. 19 Fo
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Chapter Three TRANSNATIONAL CRIMINA
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policymakers concerned with develop
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there are relatively strong, direct
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Other networks will have a more end
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network a capacity to operate with
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deals. The importance of these netw
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The specific connections that facil
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superiority—the equivalent of an
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was a fascinating mix. It included
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elationships between the Christian
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organizations have hierarchical str
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example, in identifying some of the
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provide an important value-added ap
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Transformations,” in Stark and Gr
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changes benefit from these new tech
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outside of the realm of true terror
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hardcore Category C nucleus. Catego
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millennialist cults and such transn
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For the most part, these gangs are
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attling gangs in Cape Town and the
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Colombian cartels, and the imprison
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unknown actors in Seattle and elsew
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esponse. Finally, TEW utilizes an
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23 Consider Japan’s intelligence
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Part II SOCIAL NETWARS
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Burma (a small, and to many, obscur
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Whereas McLuhan declared “the med
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years and fines of up to $5,000 for
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Massachusetts. The “selective pur
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central in using electronic communi
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THE FREE BURMA COALITION AND THE PE
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Students at Harvard tapped into the
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eleased a list of their suppliers f
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Simons was in his high school Amnes
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Case studies and an Internet activi
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when a campaign scores successes. T
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transmit, almost in real-time, debr
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warning was made virtually unanimou
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7 See, for example, Marshall McLuha
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investment, the standard of living
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Chapter Six EMERGENCE AND INFLUENCE
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hierarchical layer—at least initi
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Chiapas and Mexico City in “swarm
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Transnational NGO Mobilization—A
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Acting in tandem with these organiz
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only to the conflict in Chiapas but
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comment outside as well as inside M
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and political ideals and similar co
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Cleaver, Harry, “The Zapatista Ef
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Thomas, Hugh, Conquest: Montezuma,
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The success of that networking was
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outlining their strategies and tact
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conference, rather than the success
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vandalism and nearly all of the loo
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direct transmissions from roving in
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Network planned to shut down the WT
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gas was an attempt to expand and re
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Assistant Chief Joiner was turning
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The Black Bloc engaged in vandalism
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of the AFL-CIO retreat from downtow
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for the four hours that President C
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Around midnight, the disorder had d
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vandalism by anarchists, or a divid
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summer of 2001 in Genoa indicate th
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Chapter Eight ACTIVISM, HACKTIVISM,
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The following sections discuss and
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including Western news sites. In Ap
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devastation, the latter caused not
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Privacy Information Center (EPIC),
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open.” On the downside, some post
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independence, sustained air strikes
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about an esoteric bank regulation,
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generate so much traffic against th
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actions to defend against an attack
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on three continents. Chris Ellison,
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purpose is, NATO led by U.S.A. must
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eported intrusions from outsiders.
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In the 1980s, Barry Collin, a senio
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Cyberdefense The main effect of cyb
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policymakers. It supports both open
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37 Andrew Brown, “Editors Wanted,
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89 Amy Harmon, “‘Hacktivists’
Page 221 and 222: Chapter Nine THE STRUCTURE OF SOCIA
Page 223 and 224: enough expert agreement to support
Page 225 and 226: While the press often picks out an
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Page 229 and 230: and united counteraction by the “
Page 231 and 232: ADAPTIVE FUNCTIONS The type of orga
Page 233 and 234: pass a bill to establish the Bounda
Page 235 and 236: Gerlach, Luther P. 1978. “The Gre
Page 237 and 238: Chapter Ten WHAT NEXT FOR NETWORKS
Page 239 and 240: and “have-nots” portends a new
Page 241 and 242: Classic studies concern topics like
Page 243 and 244: still do) as to precisely what is a
Page 245 and 246: also characterize some sprawling te
Page 247 and 248: speed. It shows that such a partner
Page 249 and 250: and social scenes of Medellin and C
Page 251 and 252: depend on the existence of shared p
Page 253 and 254: gas and clubs, another would move i
Page 255 and 256: from other interesting cases of net
Page 257 and 258: THE PRACTICE OF NETWAR (AND COUNTER
Page 259 and 260: But today’s concept of globalizat
Page 261 and 262: Figure 10.1—The Two Axes of Strat
Page 263 and 264: world today, we see little sustaine
Page 265 and 266: Carr, Edward Hallett, The Twenty Ye
Page 267 and 268: Kumar, Kuldeep, and Han G. van Diss
Page 269 and 270: Shaw, Marvin, Group Dynamics: The P
Page 271: 22 From Dan Barry and Al Baker, “
Page 275 and 276: AFTERWORD (SEPTEMBER 2001): THE SHA
Page 277 and 278: was no doubt the bombing of the Kho
Page 279 and 280: Harper & Row, 1951. Johnson, Steven
Page 281 and 282: CONTRIBUTORS Paul de Armond is dire
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