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Regional precipitation trends Collischonn, W., C. E. M. Tucci and R. T. Clarke 2001: Further evidence of changes in the hydrological regime of the River Paraguay: part of a wider phenomenon of climate change? J. Hydrology, 245, 218-238. Escobar, G., V. Barros and I. Camilloni 2003: Desplazamiento del anticiclón subtropical del Atlántico Sur y su relación con el cambio de vientos sobre el Estuario del Río de la Plata. X Congreso Latinoamericano e Ibérico de Meteorología. La Habana. Gillet, N., F. Zwiers, A. Weave and P. Scott 2003: Detection of human influence on sea-level pressure. Letters to Nature, 422, 292-294 Giorgi, F. 2003: Variability and trends of sub-continental scale surface climate in the twentieth century. Part I: Observations. Clim. Dyn., 18, 675-691. Grimm, A. M., V. Barros and M. Doyle 2000: Climate variability in southern South America associated with El Niño and La Niña events. J. Climate, 13, 35-58. Liebmann, B., C. Vera, L. Carvalho, I. Camilloni, V. Barros, M. Hoerling and D. Allured 2004: An Observed Trend in Central South American Precipitation. J. Climate, 17, 4357-4367. Robertson, A. W. and C. R. Mechoso 1998: Interannual and decadal cycles in river flows of southeastern South America. J. Climate, 11, 2570-2581. Rusticucci, M. and O. Penalba 1997: Relationship between monthly precipitation and warm/cold periods in Southern South America. Preprints: Fifth Int. Conf. on Southern Hem. Met. and Ocean., 298-299. Trenberth, K. E. 1997: The definition of El Niño. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 2771-2777. Tucci, C. E. M. and R. T. Clarke 1998: Environmental issues in the La Plata Basin. Water Resources Development, 14, 157-174. Xavier, T. M. B. S., M. A. F. Silva Dias and A. F. S. Xavier 1992: Tendências da Pluviometria na Grande São Paulo e a Influência dos Processos de Urbanização e Industrialização. Anais, VII Congresso Brasileiro de Meteorologia, 1, 220-224. ______ , A. F. S. Xavier and M. A. F. Silva Dias 1994: Evolução da Precipitação Diária num Ambiente urbano: O Caso da Cidade de São Paulo. Rev. Brasileira de Meteorologia, 9, 44- 53. web addresses Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): http://www.ipcc.ch/ Southern Oscillation Index (SOI):http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/catalog/climind/soi.html 73
ABSTRACT The main hydrological trends observed in the La Plata basin are addressed through the analysis of the streamflows series of the main rivers, namely the Paraguay, Paraná y Uruguay, as well as of other important tributaries. Extreme hydrological events such as large discharges and extreme ebbs causing the major perturbations in the human and natural system are also analyzed. The relationship between precipitations and streamflow is also addressed. Finaly, the relation between El Niño events and extreme hydrological extremes is discussed. 74 CHAPTER HYDROLOGICAL TRENDS Ángel Menéndez 1 . Collaborator: Ernesto Hugo Berbery 2 1 Instituto Nacional del Agua (INA). Universidad de Buenos Aires. 2 Universidad de Maryland. VI
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CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE LA PLATA BASI
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INDEX FOREWORD . . . . . . . . . .
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7.3. Methodology . . . . . . . . .
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13.3. Regional validation of GCM fo
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1.1. Dropping the hypothesis of sta
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Introduction as they pour water ove
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A better understanding of the obser
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References Introduction Barros, V.
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ABSTRACT The hydrologic cycle of th
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La Plata basin climatology Within t
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in this last description, although
Page 23 and 24: warm season (October-April), in the
Page 25 and 26: La Plata basin climatology b. Upper
Page 27 and 28: La Plata basin climatology 2.3.3. R
Page 29 and 30: La Plata basin climatology Fig. 2.8
Page 31 and 32: 2.3.7. West and South borders La Pl
Page 33 and 34: References La Plata basin climatolo
Page 35 and 36: La Plata basin climatology Robertso
Page 37 and 38: 3.1. Introduction Interannual low f
Page 39 and 40: Interannual low frequency variabili
Page 41 and 42: 1989). This signal varies along eac
Page 43 and 44: Interannual low frequency variabili
Page 45 and 46: The main physiographic and hydrolog
Page 47 and 48: SUB-BASIN COUNTRY Argentina Bolivia
Page 49 and 50: the most important stretches of the
Page 51 and 52: Physiography and Hydrology The Para
Page 53 and 54: Physiography and Hydrology The Pant
Page 55 and 56: Physiography and Hydrology forcings
Page 57 and 58: Physiography and Hydrology It is no
Page 59 and 60: Physiography and Hydrology tion of
Page 61 and 62: Physiography and Hydrology INTERNAV
Page 63 and 64: 5.1. Introduction Precipitation and
Page 65 and 66: From 1956 to 1991, in most of the A
Page 67 and 68: -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 -40 -15 -20 -25
Page 69 and 70: Regional precipitation trends 5.3.2
Page 71 and 72: Regional precipitation trends and L
Page 73: trast, other regions suffer floodin
Page 77 and 78: Following are the observed changes:
Page 79 and 80: In the case of the Paraná River th
Page 81 and 82: Hydrological trends In order to com
Page 83 and 84: Hydrological trends In table 6.1 it
Page 85 and 86: Hydrological trends On the other ha
Page 87 and 88: the central area of the high basin
Page 89 and 90: 7.1. Introduction Several authors,
Page 91 and 92: Real evaporation trends a) PET > Pi
Page 93 and 94: a) b) c) Mean Temperature Real evap
Page 97 and 98: The positive trends of the mean tem
Page 99 and 100: d) e) f) Mean Temperature Real evap
Page 103 and 104: 7.5. Discussion and final comments
Page 105 and 106: ABSTRACT The water, as resource, is
Page 107 and 108: puts in risk large number of person
Page 109 and 110: The main services and problems of w
Page 111 and 112: There are similar problems in diffe
Page 113 and 114: 8.3.3. Energy a. Hydroelectric depe
Page 115 and 116: (chapters 12 and 13), because of th
Page 117 and 118: The main services and problems of w
Page 119 and 120: 9.1. Introduction The emissions of
Page 121 and 122: 9.4. Greenhouse effect The atmosphe
Page 123 and 124: Temperature anomalies (°C) 0.8 0.6
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Global climatic change at a global
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In view of the unavoidability of th
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Background on other regional aspect
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Considering the non-linear interact
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SST anomalies also have influence o
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ABSTRACT The purpose of this chapte
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Global climate models Mid-1970’s
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Global climate models Table 11.1. B
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Global climate models Table 11.2. M
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Although changes in weather and cli
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Socio-economic variables and also s
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Applicability in impact assessments
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of the global climate system to the
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Climate scenarios B2: Assumes a wor
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Climate scenarios The reliability o
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Climate scenarios From Table 12.2 i
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Climate scenarios Fig. 12.5. The mu
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Climate scenarios this would be rel
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Results of global circulation model
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13.2.3. Statistical downscaling The
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La Plata basin are also considerabl
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10 N EQ 10 S 20 S 30 S 40 S 50 S 10
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Regional climatic scenarios Fig. 13
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a. Pre-industrial experiment: Initi
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Regional climatic scenarios Kalnay,
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Low-frequency variability 14.1. Bac
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egime occurred during the periods o
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Fig. 14.2. As Fig. 14.1, except for
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14.4. SST composites Low-frequency
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Low-frequency variability during th
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Fig. 14.10. As Fig. 14.9, except fo
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Low-frequency variability In genera
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Low-frequency variability Mantua, N
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15.1. Introduction Statistical anal
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Statistical analysis of extreme eve
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CURRÍCULA OF THE AUTHORS Vicente B
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Curricula of the autors Rubén Mari
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Proyect: SGP II 057: “Trends in t
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