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CHAPTER IV PHYSIOGRAPHY AND HYDROLOGY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 4.1. Location of the La Plata basin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 4.2. Importance of the basin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 4.3. Ecosystems in the basin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 4.4. Characteristics of the sub-basins . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 4.4.1. The Paraná River sub-basin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 4.4.2. The Paraguay River sub-basin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 4.4.3. The Uruguay River sub-basin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 4.5. Slopes in the basin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 4.6. Environmental problems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 CHAPTER V REGIONAL PRECIPITATION TRENDS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 5.1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 5.2. Data sets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 5.3. Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 5.3.1. Total Precipitation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 a. Annual trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 b. Seasonal trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 c. Trends associated with ENSO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 5.3.2. Frequency of intense precipitation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68 5.4. Rainfall-streamflow relationships . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 5.5. Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 References and web addresses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72 CHAPTER VI HYDROLOGICAL TRENDS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 6.1. General considerations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 6.2. River dtreamflows . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 6.3. Extreme Hydrological Events (EHE) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 6.4. Relationship between precipitations and EHE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85 6.5. Relationship between El Niño and EHE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86 CHAPTER VII REAL EVAPORATION TRENDS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 7.1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88 7.2. Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88
7.3. Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88 7.4. Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 7.4.1. West of Argentina and Paraguay . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... 91 7.4.2 Paraguay River and Litoral of Argentina . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 7.4.3 East of Paraguay . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96 7.5. Discussion and final comments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .102 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .102 CHAPTER VIII THE MAIN SERVICES AND PROBLEMS OF WATER RESOURCE . . . .104 8.1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .105 8.2 Main problems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .106 8.2.1. Floods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .106 8.2.2. Environment and Ecosystem vulnerabilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .108 8.3. Main services of water resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .109 8.3.1. Water supply and urban drainage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .109 8.3.2. Agriculture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .110 8.3.3. Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .112 a. Hydroelectric dependence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .112 b. Large hydroelectric utilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .113 c. Dam sedimentation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .114 8.3.4. Fluvial navigation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .114 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .115 CHAPTER IX GLOBAL CLIMATIC CHANGE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .117 9.1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .118 9.2. Causes of climatic changes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .118 9.3. Solar and terrestrial radiation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .119 9.4. Greenhouse effect . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .120 9.5. Greenhouse gases (GHG) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .120 9.6. Global warming during the industrial period . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .121 9.7. The climate in the twenty first century . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .123 9.8. The Climatic Change is already unavoidable: mitigation and adaptation . . .125 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .126 CHAPTER X BACKGROUND ON OTHER REGIONAL ASPECTS: LAND USE CHANGE, AEROSOLS AND TRACE GASES . . . . . . . . . . . . .127 10.1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .128
Page 1 and 2: CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE LA PLATA BASI
Page 3: INDEX FOREWORD . . . . . . . . . .
Page 7 and 8: 13.3. Regional validation of GCM fo
Page 9 and 10: 1.1. Dropping the hypothesis of sta
Page 11 and 12: Introduction as they pour water ove
Page 13 and 14: A better understanding of the obser
Page 15 and 16: References Introduction Barros, V.
Page 17 and 18: ABSTRACT The hydrologic cycle of th
Page 19 and 20: La Plata basin climatology Within t
Page 21 and 22: in this last description, although
Page 23 and 24: warm season (October-April), in the
Page 25 and 26: La Plata basin climatology b. Upper
Page 27 and 28: La Plata basin climatology 2.3.3. R
Page 29 and 30: La Plata basin climatology Fig. 2.8
Page 31 and 32: 2.3.7. West and South borders La Pl
Page 33 and 34: References La Plata basin climatolo
Page 35 and 36: La Plata basin climatology Robertso
Page 37 and 38: 3.1. Introduction Interannual low f
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Page 45 and 46: The main physiographic and hydrolog
Page 47 and 48: SUB-BASIN COUNTRY Argentina Bolivia
Page 49 and 50: the most important stretches of the
Page 51 and 52: Physiography and Hydrology The Para
Page 53 and 54: Physiography and Hydrology The Pant
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Physiography and Hydrology forcings
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Physiography and Hydrology It is no
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Physiography and Hydrology tion of
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Physiography and Hydrology INTERNAV
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5.1. Introduction Precipitation and
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From 1956 to 1991, in most of the A
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-15 -20 -25 -30 -35 -40 -15 -20 -25
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Regional precipitation trends 5.3.2
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Regional precipitation trends and L
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trast, other regions suffer floodin
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ABSTRACT The main hydrological tren
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Following are the observed changes:
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In the case of the Paraná River th
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Hydrological trends In order to com
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Hydrological trends In table 6.1 it
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Hydrological trends On the other ha
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the central area of the high basin
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7.1. Introduction Several authors,
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Real evaporation trends a) PET > Pi
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a) b) c) Mean Temperature Real evap
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The positive trends of the mean tem
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d) e) f) Mean Temperature Real evap
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7.5. Discussion and final comments
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ABSTRACT The water, as resource, is
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puts in risk large number of person
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The main services and problems of w
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There are similar problems in diffe
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8.3.3. Energy a. Hydroelectric depe
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(chapters 12 and 13), because of th
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The main services and problems of w
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9.1. Introduction The emissions of
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9.4. Greenhouse effect The atmosphe
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Temperature anomalies (°C) 0.8 0.6
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Global climatic change at a global
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In view of the unavoidability of th
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Background on other regional aspect
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Considering the non-linear interact
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SST anomalies also have influence o
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ABSTRACT The purpose of this chapte
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Global climate models Mid-1970’s
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Global climate models Table 11.1. B
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Global climate models Table 11.2. M
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Although changes in weather and cli
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Socio-economic variables and also s
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Applicability in impact assessments
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of the global climate system to the
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Climate scenarios B2: Assumes a wor
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Climate scenarios The reliability o
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Climate scenarios From Table 12.2 i
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Climate scenarios Fig. 12.5. The mu
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Climate scenarios this would be rel
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Results of global circulation model
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13.2.3. Statistical downscaling The
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La Plata basin are also considerabl
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10 N EQ 10 S 20 S 30 S 40 S 50 S 10
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Regional climatic scenarios Fig. 13
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a. Pre-industrial experiment: Initi
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Regional climatic scenarios Kalnay,
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Low-frequency variability 14.1. Bac
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egime occurred during the periods o
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Fig. 14.2. As Fig. 14.1, except for
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14.4. SST composites Low-frequency
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Low-frequency variability during th
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Fig. 14.10. As Fig. 14.9, except fo
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Low-frequency variability In genera
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Low-frequency variability Mantua, N
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15.1. Introduction Statistical anal
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Statistical analysis of extreme eve
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CURRÍCULA OF THE AUTHORS Vicente B
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Curricula of the autors Rubén Mari
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Proyect: SGP II 057: “Trends in t
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